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BumRushDaShow

(127,330 posts)
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:47 PM Mar 2020

US coronavirus cases top 100,000, doubling in three days

Source: CNBC

Confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. surpassed 100,000 Friday, doubling in just three days as the pandemic accelerates and the U.S. rolls out broader testing measures. Data from Johns Hopkins University showed the total number of coronavirus cases as 101,707 and the total number of deaths in the U.S. as 1,544. The virus emerged in Wuhan, China, in December.

It has since spread to more than half a million people in almost every country around the world and continues to pick up speed, the World Health Organization warned earlier this week. “The pandemic is accelerating,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Monday at a press briefing from the organization’s Geneva headquarters. “It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach 100,000 cases, 11 days for second 100,000 cases, and just four days for the third 100,000 cases.”

Confirmed U.S. cases passed 50,000 on Tuesday, up from 5,000 last week. At the beginning of the month, there were roughly 100 confirmed cases in the U.S. On Thursday, confirmed cases in the U.S. surpassed that of both China and Italy, making it the country with the largest outbreak in the world. The number of confirmed cases likely underestimates the true number of infections across the country, officials have acknowledged. Testing in the U.S. has been hampered by delays and a restrictive diagnostic criteria that limits who can get tested.

With 44,635 confirmed cases as of Friday morning, New York state accounts for almost half of all cases in the U.S., according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo. He said Thursday that the rapid growth of confirmed cases is partly due to a “backlog” of infections that had not been confirmed due to lack of testing.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-coronavirus-cases-top-100000-doubling-in-three-days.html

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US coronavirus cases top 100,000, doubling in three days (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Mar 2020 OP
That's the math that everyone gldstwmn Mar 2020 #1
Yep, exponential growth or something close to that is scary Hav Mar 2020 #5
There are still no tests of any magnitude gldstwmn Mar 2020 #7
"is this flattening the curve?" -- doesn't look like it, per graphs on a semilogarithmic scale: progree Mar 2020 #16
It is indeed speading like wildfire--while Trump blabbers on and on patting himself on the back. riversedge Mar 2020 #2
Why the f*ck is he going to watch the gldstwmn Mar 2020 #12
Photo op DENVERPOPS Mar 2020 #15
i thought he did that today. but I have had a busy day myself. riversedge Mar 2020 #17
I heard an audio clip of him yesterday explaining away that the U.S. has the most cases in the world progree Mar 2020 #13
If it continues at that rate . . . Richard D Mar 2020 #3
Virtually every person will get it. joshcryer Mar 2020 #8
Yes. That is exactly what Bill Gates said gldstwmn Mar 2020 #14
Ideally the curve is flattened so most people will get it by vaccination, i.e. sort-of get it. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2020 #18
No. Vaccinations are a year away at best NickB79 Mar 2020 #33
It won't. It's a *logistics* curve: exponential to 50% then it slows down exponentially to 100% Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2020 #21
Very informative post, TY. at140 Mar 2020 #27
Hopefully it is peaking in NY . . Iliyah Mar 2020 #4
I don't think NYC is anywhere near peaking yet. Marrah_Goodman Mar 2020 #6
Agree. They've put a bandaid on a shotgun gldstwmn Mar 2020 #9
It'll be a shock when it does. Igel Mar 2020 #34
It's not going to peak for weeks in NY. joshcryer Mar 2020 #10
Meanwhile all of the other disasters we've been dealing with will continue unabated Rural_Progressive Mar 2020 #24
Some counties in CA went in earlier and CA went on lockdown a day earlier as a whole. It is said emmaverybo Mar 2020 #11
I will just throw this out there bucolic_frolic Mar 2020 #19
They still offer the (modern) polio vaccine BumRushDaShow Mar 2020 #22
Hey wait a minute Rural_Progressive Mar 2020 #25
They got rid of the sugar cube BumRushDaShow Mar 2020 #29
"Testing in the US has been hampered thucythucy Mar 2020 #20
The reports are muddled. Igel Mar 2020 #35
So who is responsible for changing those protocols? thucythucy Mar 2020 #40
The real numbers are likely much higher relayerbob Mar 2020 #23
Iceland's data have been reported to indicate Igel Mar 2020 #36
And sadly relayerbob Mar 2020 #38
it was 33% every day, now it seems 25% Locrian Mar 2020 #26
if this exponential growth continues, we'll have roughly 4 million cases by easter sunday. unblock Mar 2020 #28
So regardless of the "Stay at Home" mandates Farmgirl1961 Mar 2020 #30
Up to the states, with interfere on getting supplies, unnecessarily worse & we know Y! Brainfodder Mar 2020 #32
Only two things can actually stop it... relayerbob Mar 2020 #39
I have the USA death count going over 10,000 on April 3rd: Next Friday.... Brainfodder Mar 2020 #31
Who knows how big the "backlog" is? truthisfreedom Mar 2020 #37

gldstwmn

(4,575 posts)
1. That's the math that everyone
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:49 PM
Mar 2020

was talking about on Twitter a month ago. They were right. Is this flattening the curve though?

Hav

(5,969 posts)
5. Yep, exponential growth or something close to that is scary
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:56 PM
Mar 2020

As for flattening the curve, I think for individual countries like the US in a relatively early phase, as alarming as the numbers already are, I fear we are just at the very beginning of that curve. I was quite shocked when I heard someone else explain that because it means even if the crisis is handled well from now on, it will still get considerably worse. It will probably take weeks before we can judge whether measures to flatten it were succesful.

gldstwmn

(4,575 posts)
7. There are still no tests of any magnitude
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:00 PM
Mar 2020

anywhere. Most places have switched to a treatment based approach. That isn't going to be sustainable unfortunately.

progree

(10,864 posts)
16. "is this flattening the curve?" -- doesn't look like it, per graphs on a semilogarithmic scale:
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:20 PM
Mar 2020
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If one scrolls down, there's a graph of U.S. cases. Currently it shows it in linear scale. Click on "logarithmic".

Why logarithmic? Because on a logarithmic scale (really a semi-logarithmic scale: the total cases is on a logarithmic scale while the dates are on a linear scale),

a straight line represents a constant percent increase. And that's about what we've got: a straight line. About 8 or 9 days for each 10-fold increase.

If that keeps up, by about April 15 we will have a couple more 10-fold increases, meaning 101,000 cases X 10 X 10 = 10,100,000 cases.

A couple graphs further down is total deaths, which one can also put on a logarithmic scale. It's pretty much a straight line too. Actually the slope is slightly increasing, meaning the percentage rate of increase is increasing. It's now also at about 8-9 days per 10-fold increase.
The preceding 10-fold increase took 13 days.

gldstwmn

(4,575 posts)
12. Why the f*ck is he going to watch the
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:05 PM
Mar 2020

hospital ship depart Norfolk tomorrow? I hope he falls off the dock.

DENVERPOPS

(8,679 posts)
15. Photo op
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:11 PM
Mar 2020

so he can show the nation how much he did in the future election.

He has been doing all kinds of phony things, just to give photo opportunities for Fox News to show.......

The shallowness is soooo apparent to every one except his Trumphumpers......

progree

(10,864 posts)
13. I heard an audio clip of him yesterday explaining away that the U.S. has the most cases in the world
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:05 PM
Mar 2020

by saying that's because we have the best testing in the world, and one can't trust the Chinese numbers (or words very close to these). And then he went on and on about the milllions of face masks shipped and the millions of gloves shipped and ...

Amazing how he can twist everything 180 degrees.

joshcryer

(62,265 posts)
8. Virtually every person will get it.
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:02 PM
Mar 2020

And there's almost nothing you can do about it.

This is going to be going on for months. Not weeks. Months.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,790 posts)
21. It won't. It's a *logistics* curve: exponential to 50% then it slows down exponentially to 100%
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:04 PM
Mar 2020

Sometimes called a sigmoid curve.

It won't reach that because herd immunity causes it to die out, but whether that is at 50% or 80% we won't know, and by then (a year?) there should be a vaccine which of course is a kind of immunity. Ideally we flatten the curve enough to gain time to reach the vaccine and better treatments.



Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
4. Hopefully it is peaking in NY . .
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 06:55 PM
Mar 2020

California says that the virus is starting to take hold and will be doubling within a weeks or two and that California may be like NY in that period of time.

gldstwmn

(4,575 posts)
9. Agree. They've put a bandaid on a shotgun
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:03 PM
Mar 2020

wound despite Cuomo's heroic efforts. I think he will lead this country one day.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
34. It'll be a shock when it does.
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 12:43 AM
Mar 2020

The numbers are noisy enough that it'll stop and decline before we're sure it's stopped. And the drop off will be missed in the case numbers because people aren't looking at new cases so much as total cases, and because testing increases will mask transmission drop offs to a large extent. Deaths lag, so the transmission'll dropped off considerably by the time we realize it's started to drop.

But as with the rest of the country, it'll be something that has to be teased out of the numbers.

There is no single unit right for analysis here. NYC/area is on one model. Chicago's on another. Rural Iowa's on a third. You mash them together and the result doesn't make a lot of sense. NYC will peak and decline as other cities still increase. NYC will peak and decrease as Buffalo and Rochester are still increasing.

Stepping back, it's like looking at the Earth's increase--meaning that since there's an increase, it's been increasing in China, and India, and Texas, and Colorado, and Italy all at the same rate, in lock-step. (Except it hasn't. It's obvious at this level that such a model is constructed on bad assumptions. It's the same problem looking at the US. It's a composite of different models, and each model merits its own attention.)

joshcryer

(62,265 posts)
10. It's not going to peak for weeks in NY.
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:03 PM
Mar 2020

And it's going to be peaking in regional areas well into the summer.

It is just starting. And governors like Cuomo are taking the fight to it. This is a test for humanity.

Rural_Progressive

(1,105 posts)
24. Meanwhile all of the other disasters we've been dealing with will continue unabated
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:37 PM
Mar 2020

Tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, drought, record breaking heat waves, and megawildfires will not stop happening just because the "intelligent" chimps find themselves in a jam with a viral pandemic.

The real fun is yet to come. Buckle up your seat-belts guys and gals the ride is likely to get really bumpy for awhile.

emmaverybo

(8,144 posts)
11. Some counties in CA went in earlier and CA went on lockdown a day earlier as a whole. It is said
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:05 PM
Mar 2020

even a day makes a difference. However, we surely have just begun to see the numbers and they will drastically increase, probably over our capacity, certainly for ventilators. Then there’s personnel.

bucolic_frolic

(42,679 posts)
19. I will just throw this out there
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 07:53 PM
Mar 2020

Smallpox was a recurrent epidemic in Colonial America. They had of course primitive medicine, but they did do inoculations with live virus, which were sometimes fatal. I barely remember getting polio vaccine as a young child. I'm sure companies are doing the best they can but you'd think with modern medicine developing a vaccine would be a bit quicker

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease_in_colonial_America#Smallpox

BumRushDaShow

(127,330 posts)
22. They still offer the (modern) polio vaccine
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:06 PM
Mar 2020

I got a polio booster in 1992 before traveling to Egypt. And the polio was an oral one (no longer given and they're doing the shot again).

Note though - back in the day, there was quite a bit of unethical testing on people (and on animals before they even got to the people stage) during the vaccine development and it is now much more controlled (and much of the animal testing has been getting phased out).

Rural_Progressive

(1,105 posts)
25. Hey wait a minute
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:39 PM
Mar 2020

no more sugar cubes in a paper cup?

I remember waiting in line at the local high school to get mine and have my name scratched off the list.

BumRushDaShow

(127,330 posts)
29. They got rid of the sugar cube
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:52 PM
Mar 2020

I remember that back as a kid.

They are supposedly now doing it as an injection. For the booster in '92, it was an oral (liquid) version that the infectious disease specialist physician (who did international travel vaccines) gave me and my mom (drops on the tongue). My mom grew up in the pre-polio vaccine era and would have been 90 this year, but I expect since she worked for the state and then city in the '50s, she probably got some type of vaccine then!

thucythucy

(7,986 posts)
20. "Testing in the US has been hampered
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:02 PM
Mar 2020

by delays and a restrictive diagnostic criteria that limits who can get tested."

This sounds like spin to me. As I understand it, the reasons testing is restricted is because there aren't tests to go around, and so onl those with full blown symptoms can get tested--if then.

To say the restrictions are one of the two problems with the testing is the MSM giving Trump a pass--yet again.

Ugh.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
35. The reports are muddled.
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 12:48 AM
Mar 2020

"I can't get tested" doesn't give a reason. Then they cite somebody in the next sentence who couldn't get tested because of protocols or lack of tests and that's suddenly true for both people--when it's still the case that one is ambiguous.

Read carefully and it's a bit more obvious. A lot of people still don't meet the requirements, which are silly. But that's for the official CDC tests. A lot of private companies are testing on doctor's orders, protocol be damned. Not all positives are reported; and the number of test centers not reporting negatives is even greater.

The other thing is that in NYC, with lots of cases, they do lots of tests. Less than 10% of the population, they've done about a quarter of the tests.

As for the testing protocol, it was drawn up before COVID was identified.

thucythucy

(7,986 posts)
40. So who is responsible for changing those protocols?
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 01:20 AM
Mar 2020

You would think, given the urgency, that this would be a priority.

COVID was identified when? Back in January? And they still haven't amended the old protocols or drawn up new ones?

This is an instance where a president on top of the details would be there to light a fire under whomever is responsible for moving this.

Germany is testing tens of thousands a day. South Korea tested how many, in what period of time? And how long ago did those tests start? We can't get the information we need to develop the new protocols from their experience of the last three months?

I'm reminded of the telegraph Lincoln sent Grant in the summer of 1864. Grant had ordered some general to move his troops SOUTH of Jubal Early's raiders in the Shenandoah Valley, so as to trap them. Lincoln was monitoring all the telegraph traffic flowing in and out of the various commands. He saw that the commander in question had NOT followed Grant's order, and sent a message to Grant saying, basically, kick some ass and get it done. I think the wording was something like, "Unless you watch this every day it will not happen."

THAT'S what "a war president" does. He doesn't do PR events dispensing lies and insipid self-congratulations.

Similarly, unless our press develops some guts and starts "watching" this and other issues every day, we're going to continue our drift into catastrophe.

relayerbob

(6,510 posts)
23. The real numbers are likely much higher
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:33 PM
Mar 2020

I'd guess wildly, well over 500k. As Cuomo said, part of it is the backlog of tests and just the larger number of tests becoming available. We have no way of knowing the actual magnitude, when all that are being tested are the worst, most obvious cases

In a sense they may be good, as it means the severity of the disease might be somewhat less than predicted.

Igel

(35,197 posts)
36. Iceland's data have been reported to indicate
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 12:51 AM
Mar 2020

that half of the positives there (they did random testing) were for people with no symptoms, no reason to be tested, at all.

S. Korea's data had about 1/3, but they also tested not randomly but a specific cohort with a high rate of infection.

Here we typically test the sick, unless there's some extenuating circumstance.

Locrian

(4,522 posts)
26. it was 33% every day, now it seems 25%
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:40 PM
Mar 2020

If it doesn't flatten more that puts us at 1/2 million in another week


day = 0. cases = 32357
day = 1. cases = 40571
day = 2. cases = 50869
day = 3. cases = 63782
day = 4. cases = 79973
day = 5. cases = 100274 <<<<<<<<<< we are here
day = 6. cases = 125729
day = 7. cases = 157644
day = 8. cases = 197662
day = 9. cases = 247837
day = 10. cases = 310750
day = 11. cases = 389632
day = 12. cases = 488539
day = 13. cases = 612553
day = 14. cases = 768047

unblock

(51,974 posts)
28. if this exponential growth continues, we'll have roughly 4 million cases by easter sunday.
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 08:51 PM
Mar 2020

donnie may have picked the singularly worst date to talk about things getting back to normal.

Farmgirl1961

(1,493 posts)
30. So regardless of the "Stay at Home" mandates
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 09:33 PM
Mar 2020

Around the country, are we all screwed? Is it more a matter of when, not if?

We are doing the best we can with physical distancing and minimizing our trips out of our home base, have started to decontaminate our groceries and trying to be vigilant about UPS and mail, but I still wonder if that is enough and if sooner or later COVID 19 will be so widespread that it will be unavoidable.

Sounds grim, but at this point with the exponential or logarithmic growth, what’s to stop it?

Out in Oregon we have fewer cases than several other states, but in one day we had a jump of 98 presumed cases, for a total of 400+ known cases.

relayerbob

(6,510 posts)
39. Only two things can actually stop it...
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 01:04 AM
Mar 2020

getting immunity from having it, which still isn't clear. And getting an inoculation to prevent it, which is still in the pipeline. Otherwise, yes, it is likely everyone gets. The stay home measures are more to keep from overloading the medical care system, for those who get critically ill.

On a positive note, the US has one of the lowest death rates recorded with the disease, at least so far

Brainfodder

(6,423 posts)
31. I have the USA death count going over 10,000 on April 3rd: Next Friday....
Fri Mar 27, 2020, 10:39 PM
Mar 2020

The 1.33x multiplier held+ today.

Good Luck!

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