Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'
Source: the guardian
Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures
Tue 11 Feb 2020 04.47 EST First published on Tue 11 Feb 2020 01.00 EST
Coronavirus a test of global solidarity, says WHO director video
The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the worlds population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kongs leading public health epidemiologist.
His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the tip of the iceberg.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an attack rate of 60-80%.
Sixty per cent of the worlds population is an awfully big number, Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.
Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.
He will tell the WHO meeting that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked because if so, other countries should think about adopting them.
The Geneva meeting brings together more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some participating by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan. With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world, the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks. To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said..........................
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)It's all very scary.
catsudon
(839 posts)where are those new 300-400 hospital beds coming from daily in wuhan? the 300-400 bodies they're burning daily....
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)Dr.'s and no bathrooms, they are morgue for the living, much like the quarintine camps.
Delphinus
(11,830 posts)And the post above you (about the cremations) - that is not the first I've heard about the crematories going 24/7.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)new heights the last couple days in Wuhan. The official numbers they are releasing the past couple days are dropping, yet the videos are getting worse. I realize we can't verify most of what's coming out of there, but they are the same type Chen Quishi and Fangbin released.(both have been disappeared in the past week, by CCP) 😳
catsudon
(839 posts)they ARE?!? cool, i fell asleep watching the Taiwanese news last night and have not heard...
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)Link to tweet
?s=20
I did research Windy.com a bit, no big red flags. They strive to be as accurate as possible.
PubliusEnigma
(1,583 posts)IADEMO2004
(5,554 posts)60 % World Population Feb 2020 7,800,000,000 *.6=4,680,000,000
4% survival rate ? 4,680,000,000 *.04=187,200,000
Dead 187,200,00
cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)The death rate, not survival rate, is said to be about 2%. If you take into account those who have mild or no symptoms it might be 1%.
You did the calculation right though but at 1% it will be 46.8 million.
IADEMO2004
(5,554 posts)cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)That's 46.8 million people
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)like regular hand-washing there's not much I can do about it so worry about it I won't.
greymattermom
(5,754 posts)It might save money on Medicare. And Social Security.
Liberalhammer
(576 posts)This virus is definitely a key part of the Republican healthcare plan
Richard D
(8,752 posts)60% of the worlds population is 4.54 billion. At the 2% death rate that would be close to 100 million deaths.
Scary stuff indeed.
Traildogbob
(8,716 posts)We encourage another "free" world tour for trump and his spawn, including Jared, to "Jiina", for a trade conference. Weather is warming, certainly safe now. How better could we use our tax dollars? Promise Ivanka 100's more patents, and Freido 1 and 2 exotic big game hunts. MAGA!
Richard D
(8,752 posts)CountAllVotes
(20,868 posts)dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)of Hubei province have dropped drastically in the past two days, yet the sulfur dioxide being recorded is alarming. Not to mention the videos, are getting worse. I know it's hard to verify anything, but the fact that they have disappeared two independent journalists(Fangbin and Chen Quishi) that were putting out the same information, makes me tend to believe most of what I am seeing.😳😭
EarthFirst
(2,900 posts)This is just as sobering a scenario as the one theyre laying out in The Guardian article linked above...
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)50 percent in his new budget.
EarthFirst
(2,900 posts)I havent checked recently; Im scared to look; as to which agencies tasked with a full blown epidemic response have vacancies.
Again; terrifying stuff.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,338 posts)Those cruise ships are like floating Petri dishes. Hold them under a microscope, they're full of Guinea pigs.
... er, "humans". I meant "humans".
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)Every time I see the one guy's food posts, I automatically think of the people preparing the food. I think the decision to quarantine them on the ship, may have been a grave error.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,338 posts)Anyone who's ill may not be well-served by the clinic on board, anyone who's healthy lives in fear of contracting this thing.
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)winstars
(4,220 posts)Renew Deal
(81,855 posts)Last edited Wed Feb 12, 2020, 09:08 AM - Edit history (1)
7 billion people. 1% fatality rate
dewsgirl
(14,961 posts)yet, until we get a country with a bit more transparency. This truly couldn't have happened at a worse time in history.