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riversedge

(70,188 posts)
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:18 PM Feb 2020

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

Source: the guardian





Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures


Tue 11 Feb 2020 04.47 EST First published on Tue 11 Feb 2020 01.00 EST

Coronavirus a test of global solidarity, says WHO director – video

The coronavirus epidemic could spread to about two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist.

His warning came after the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said recent cases of coronavirus patients who had never visited China could be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, said the overriding question was to figure out the size and shape of the iceberg. Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to about 2.5 other people. That gave an “attack rate” of 60-80%.

“Sixty per cent of the world’s population is an awfully big number,” Leung told the Guardian in London, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva on Tuesday.

Even if the general fatality rate is as low as 1%, which Leung thinks is possible once milder cases are taken into account, the death toll would be massive.


He will tell the WHO meeting that the main issue is the scale of the growing worldwide epidemic and the second priority is to find out whether the drastic measures taken by China to prevent the spread have worked – because if so, other countries should think about adopting them.

The Geneva meeting brings together more than 400 researchers and national authorities, including some participating by video conference from mainland China and Taiwan. “With 99% of cases in China, this remains very much an emergency for that country, but one that holds a very grave threat for the rest of the world,” the WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in his opening remarks. To date China has reported 42,708 confirmed cases, including 1,017 deaths, Tedros said..........................

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population

31 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' (Original Post) riversedge Feb 2020 OP
Many researchers agree, they are lying about the numbers. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #1
that is correct... catsudon Feb 2020 #11
I believe they are even higher than that. Those new "hospitals" have no dewsgirl Feb 2020 #15
Oh my ... Delphinus Feb 2020 #19
They certainly are, the sulfur dioxide levels are reaching alarming dewsgirl Feb 2020 #20
fanstastic catsudon Feb 2020 #30
There are several sources, none of which are verified. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #31
Coronavirus kills 2% of those infected - 100 million deaths PubliusEnigma Feb 2020 #2
Numbers IADEMO2004 Feb 2020 #3
You have it backwards.. cannabis_flower Feb 2020 #7
Damn IADEMO2004 Feb 2020 #9
Doing the math cannabis_flower Feb 2020 #4
Other than taking all the precautions I personally can ibegurpard Feb 2020 #5
Maybe Republicans like this. greymattermom Feb 2020 #6
With firearm deaths, pollution, no insurance coverage, etc... Liberalhammer Feb 2020 #8
Whoa, if true. . . Richard D Feb 2020 #10
How about........ Traildogbob Feb 2020 #12
I like the way you think! nt Richard D Feb 2020 #14
K&R CountAllVotes Feb 2020 #13
I don't know what they are trying to pull, but the numbers coming out dewsgirl Feb 2020 #16
It's stone cold terrifying that the Trump administration is charged with handling this... EarthFirst Feb 2020 #17
That stupid f@ck, suggested slashing pandemic efforts by dewsgirl Feb 2020 #21
Quite right... EarthFirst Feb 2020 #23
Very terrifying. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #24
There are some excellent labs to study contagion and mortality rates. JustABozoOnThisBus Feb 2020 #18
I can't imagine what they have to be going through. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #22
A "grave" error, indeed. JustABozoOnThisBus Feb 2020 #27
I didn't even catch the pun. dewsgirl Feb 2020 #28
Don't worry, tRump says the warm weather with help!!! ASSHOLE IS GONNA GET US KILLED winstars Feb 2020 #25
Around 42 Million dead Renew Deal Feb 2020 #26
It's higher....unfortunately. We just don't know how much higher dewsgirl Feb 2020 #29

catsudon

(839 posts)
11. that is correct...
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:45 PM
Feb 2020

where are those new 300-400 hospital beds coming from daily in wuhan? the 300-400 bodies they're burning daily....

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
15. I believe they are even higher than that. Those new "hospitals" have no
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 06:22 PM
Feb 2020

Dr.'s and no bathrooms, they are morgue for the living, much like the quarintine camps.

Delphinus

(11,830 posts)
19. Oh my ...
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 07:32 PM
Feb 2020

And the post above you (about the cremations) - that is not the first I've heard about the crematories going 24/7.

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
20. They certainly are, the sulfur dioxide levels are reaching alarming
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 07:54 PM
Feb 2020

new heights the last couple days in Wuhan. The official numbers they are releasing the past couple days are dropping, yet the videos are getting worse. I realize we can't verify most of what's coming out of there, but they are the same type Chen Quishi and Fangbin released.(both have been disappeared in the past week, by CCP) 😳

catsudon

(839 posts)
30. fanstastic
Wed Feb 12, 2020, 10:29 AM
Feb 2020

they ARE?!? cool, i fell asleep watching the Taiwanese news last night and have not heard...

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
31. There are several sources, none of which are verified.
Wed Feb 12, 2020, 11:21 AM
Feb 2020

?s=20

I did research Windy.com a bit, no big red flags. They strive to be as accurate as possible.

IADEMO2004

(5,554 posts)
3. Numbers
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:29 PM
Feb 2020

60 % World Population Feb 2020 7,800,000,000 *.6=4,680,000,000

4% survival rate ? 4,680,000,000 *.04=187,200,000

Dead 187,200,00

cannabis_flower

(3,764 posts)
7. You have it backwards..
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:35 PM
Feb 2020

The death rate, not survival rate, is said to be about 2%. If you take into account those who have mild or no symptoms it might be 1%.

You did the calculation right though but at 1% it will be 46.8 million.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
5. Other than taking all the precautions I personally can
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:30 PM
Feb 2020

like regular hand-washing there's not much I can do about it so worry about it I won't.

 

Liberalhammer

(576 posts)
8. With firearm deaths, pollution, no insurance coverage, etc...
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:36 PM
Feb 2020

This virus is definitely a key part of the Republican healthcare plan

Richard D

(8,752 posts)
10. Whoa, if true. . .
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 04:42 PM
Feb 2020

60% of the worlds population is 4.54 billion. At the 2% death rate that would be close to 100 million deaths.

Scary stuff indeed.

Traildogbob

(8,716 posts)
12. How about........
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 05:11 PM
Feb 2020

We encourage another "free" world tour for trump and his spawn, including Jared, to "Jiina", for a trade conference. Weather is warming, certainly safe now. How better could we use our tax dollars? Promise Ivanka 100's more patents, and Freido 1 and 2 exotic big game hunts. MAGA!

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
16. I don't know what they are trying to pull, but the numbers coming out
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 06:36 PM
Feb 2020

of Hubei province have dropped drastically in the past two days, yet the sulfur dioxide being recorded is alarming. Not to mention the videos, are getting worse. I know it's hard to verify anything, but the fact that they have disappeared two independent journalists(Fangbin and Chen Quishi) that were putting out the same information, makes me tend to believe most of what I am seeing.😳😭

EarthFirst

(2,900 posts)
17. It's stone cold terrifying that the Trump administration is charged with handling this...
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 07:23 PM
Feb 2020

This is just as sobering a scenario as the one they’re laying out in The Guardian article linked above...

EarthFirst

(2,900 posts)
23. Quite right...
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 08:09 PM
Feb 2020

I haven’t checked recently; I’m scared to look; as to which agencies tasked with a full blown epidemic response have vacancies.

Again; terrifying stuff.

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,338 posts)
18. There are some excellent labs to study contagion and mortality rates.
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 07:25 PM
Feb 2020

Those cruise ships are like floating Petri dishes. Hold them under a microscope, they're full of Guinea pigs.

... er, "humans". I meant "humans".

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
22. I can't imagine what they have to be going through.
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 08:00 PM
Feb 2020

Every time I see the one guy's food posts, I automatically think of the people preparing the food. I think the decision to quarantine them on the ship, may have been a grave error.

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,338 posts)
27. A "grave" error, indeed.
Wed Feb 12, 2020, 06:36 AM
Feb 2020

Anyone who's ill may not be well-served by the clinic on board, anyone who's healthy lives in fear of contracting this thing.

dewsgirl

(14,961 posts)
29. It's higher....unfortunately. We just don't know how much higher
Wed Feb 12, 2020, 08:18 AM
Feb 2020

yet, until we get a country with a bit more transparency. This truly couldn't have happened at a worse time in history.

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