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BumRushDaShow

(127,318 posts)
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 08:36 AM Oct 2019

G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown

Source: New York Times

Dogged by uneasiness over trade frictions and weak global growth, the American economy continued to slow over the summer. Gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy -- grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts had forecast a gain of 1.5 percent.

The year started out with a surge, but the pace of growth declined in the spring and again over the period that spanned July, August and September, the first time in a decade that the growth rate has fallen for two consecutive quarters.

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are expected to end their two days of meetings in Washington on Wednesday afternoon with an announcement that the central bank will again drop its benchmark interest rate to prevent a slowdown from turning into a slide.

"We are expecting the Fed to lower rates," said Lydia Boussour, senior United States economist at Oxford Economics. "I think there is a stronger case now than just a few months ago."

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/gdp-economy.html



Original article/headline -

U.S. economy strained in third quarter, growing just 1.9% as investors await key news on jobs and interest rates this week

By Washington Post Staff
Oct. 30, 2019 at 8:32 a.m. EDT

Growth and business investment are under close scrutiny this year as companies deal with trade war uncertainty and politicians prepare for the 2020 elections.

This is a developing story. It will be updated.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/10/30/u-s-economy-strained-in-third-quarter-growing-just-1-9-as-investors-await-key-news-on-jobs-and-interest-rates-this-week/


Updated WaPo article -

U.S. slowdown deepens as economic growth slips to 1.9 percent pace in third quarter

By Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam
Oct. 30, 2019 at 8:39 a.m. EDT

The U.S. economy cooled over the summer, growing at a 1.9 percent annualized pace from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, the latest sign that the slowdown is deepening.

Economists anticipated weaker growth after President Trump announced a dramatic expansion of his trade war in early August, spooking business leaders and deterring them from making major investments during a period of so much uncertainty. Consumer spending continues to power the economy, but business investment has slipped sharply, falling 3 percent in the third quarter, the weakest since the end of 2015.

Slow growth abroad and problems at big employers such as Boeing and General Motors also were a drag on growth. Tens of thousands of workers went on strike at GM in September, halting most production at the company. And Boeing, the U.S.'s largest exporter, remains under pressure after two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets in the past year.

After revving to 2.9 percent growth in 2018, the U.S. economy appears to be settling into the slower pace than it notched during the final year of the Obama administration. Trump vowed during his presidential campaign that he could boost the economy to around 4 percent growth, a level not seen in years. He promised at least 3 percent growth a year, an annual pace he has yet to achieve.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/30/us-slowdown-deepens-economic-growth-slips-percent-pace-third-quarter/
32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 OP
I never doubted the economic numbers gab13by13 Oct 2019 #1
That'd be the revised numbers NotASurfer Oct 2019 #31
I found all of the release dates through the end of 2020 progree Oct 2019 #32
Twittler tirade incoming durablend Oct 2019 #2
... BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #4
That isn't the narrative the financial networks are pushing. Just the opposite still_one Oct 2019 #3
What happened to the 4,5,6% GDP gab13by13 Oct 2019 #6
Jinx! BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #8
I am not debating you gab, just saying the financial networks have been covering for trump for two still_one Oct 2019 #9
Everything is good, gab13by13 Oct 2019 #11
We are on the same page still_one Oct 2019 #14
1.9% ? Roy Rolling Oct 2019 #12
However as we go into the final quarter, it fails with respect to the Administration's "predictions" BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #7
The cracks are showing. maddogesq Oct 2019 #15
The economists polled by MarketWatch expect Friday's jobs report to show only 73,000 jobs progree Oct 2019 #17
And most of those jobs... maddogesq Oct 2019 #21
Trade war, currency war...world war. roamer65 Oct 2019 #30
That 1.5 trillion dollar gift gab13by13 Oct 2019 #5
Do you remember all the talk about minting BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #10
Here's the official Bureau of Economic Analysis release progree Oct 2019 #13
+1 dalton99a Oct 2019 #16
Thanks! Very interesting. Looks like the economy has gotten a lot "tamer" in the last 3 decades progree Oct 2019 #23
Thank you! BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #18
Thanks, I swiped it and put it above my graph in post #13 progree Oct 2019 #19
Was looking for earlier ones than that BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #20
I finally made a snap shot of GDP from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 1st estimate progree Oct 2019 #22
I had been playing with the data on the chart for a bit BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #26
Trump promised 5 , 6 or 7% growth ritapria Oct 2019 #24
so much winning or was that "so much spinning" from the orange asshole. LOL nt Javaman Oct 2019 #25
Well the "w" and the "s" are adjacent and just a row apart on a standard keyboard so... BumRushDaShow Oct 2019 #27
lol! :) nt Javaman Oct 2019 #29
We are already seeing the early signs of a recession duforsure Oct 2019 #28

gab13by13

(20,867 posts)
1. I never doubted the economic numbers
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 08:47 AM
Oct 2019

until now. It seems funny that lately, Wall Street analysts are getting their forecasts wrong and always are under the final numbers.
Wall Street analysts predicted a 1.5% GDP that came in at 1.9%

I know, but this administration makes me paranoid.

NotASurfer

(2,138 posts)
31. That'd be the revised numbers
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 07:39 PM
Oct 2019

Released a few months later after people have a chance to forget the "almost 2%" fiction. Might well be revised down to 1.5% or so.

Depending on whether the administration tanks the economy it might even sound like a wistful reminder of better days

progree

(10,864 posts)
32. I found all of the release dates through the end of 2020
Thu Oct 31, 2019, 02:32 AM
Oct 2019

at the bottom of:

https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2019-advance-estimate

the 2nd estimate of Q3 will be November 27, 2019
I can't find the 3rd (and final) estimate date, but it will be in late December.

Then they have a nice table of the remaining quarters, for example for Q4:

Advance Estimate January 30, 2020
Second Estimate February 27, 2020
Third Estimate March 26, 2020

and so on for the following quarters -- always following the same pattern: the first estimate , called the "advance estimate" is near the end of the month following the end of the quarter.

The second one is a month later, also near the end of the month,

and ditto for the 3rd and final estimate - about a month after the 2nd estimate and near the end of the month.

durablend

(7,416 posts)
2. Twittler tirade incoming
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 08:49 AM
Oct 2019

"DEMS MAKING THE ECONOMY BAD WITH IMPEACHMENT NONSENSE!!!! RED WAVE COMING BIGLY IN 2020!!!! LOCK THEM ALL UP!!!!!!"

still_one

(91,965 posts)
3. That isn't the narrative the financial networks are pushing. Just the opposite
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 08:50 AM
Oct 2019

They are saying it beat estimates

gab13by13

(20,867 posts)
6. What happened to the 4,5,6% GDP
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:02 AM
Oct 2019

that Trump promised from his tax cuts? Now we're supposed to be happy that GDP hit 1.9% instead of 1.5%?

still_one

(91,965 posts)
9. I am not debating you gab, just saying the financial networks have been covering for trump for two
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:09 AM
Oct 2019

years

Growth has been curtailed significantly since trump, but that isn’t the story being propagated

It will be interesting what the fed does with interest rates. If things are so great there is no reason for them to cut

gab13by13

(20,867 posts)
11. Everything is good,
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:20 AM
Oct 2019

I wasn't really directing my comments to you, I shouldn't have put my post to you.

Cutting interest rates is a done deal, Trump wants it. I will be surprised if the Fed bucks Trump.

BumRushDaShow

(127,318 posts)
7. However as we go into the final quarter, it fails with respect to the Administration's "predictions"
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:03 AM
Oct 2019

of 3 and even 4% growth!11!!!!111!!!!

I think that is what the narrative is here - that there is no "booming economy" (especially once they started begging for interest rate cuts) and moreso because the election is next year. The question then will become will an actual QE start up again next year if this trend continues.

maddogesq

(1,245 posts)
15. The cracks are showing.
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:42 AM
Oct 2019

We can parse all the numbers we want, but the plain fact is manufacturing is already in a recession, and layoffs are coming, Mark my word.

Look at the ADP report where last month’s job growth was revised down 43k.

My guess is the real GDP came in under plus 1.5, and that will show in subsequent reports.

Meanwhile on Main Street, look around you peeps...

progree

(10,864 posts)
17. The economists polled by MarketWatch expect Friday's jobs report to show only 73,000 jobs
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:51 AM
Oct 2019

created in October.

https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic
The median forecasts that MarketWatch publishes each week in the economic calendar come from the forecasts of the 15 economists who have scored the highest in our contest over the past 12 months, as well as the forecasts of the most recent winner of the Forecaster of the Month contest.

maddogesq

(1,245 posts)
21. And most of those jobs...
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:25 AM
Oct 2019

will be in service providers.

History repeats itself, and the bull-pucky that comes from the WH or Wall Street sounds a lot like Bush 2 years leading up to the big dumper,

gab13by13

(20,867 posts)
5. That 1.5 trillion dollar gift
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 08:59 AM
Oct 2019

that Trump gave to corporations and the rich is wearing off. Manufacturing is cratering. Trump artificially stimulated the economy with taxpayer dollars that why our deficit is about to hit 1 trillion dollars.

Can you imagine if Obama had carried a 1 trillion dollar deficit?

progree

(10,864 posts)
13. Here's the official Bureau of Economic Analysis release
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 09:38 AM
Oct 2019

Last edited Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:48 AM - Edit history (3)

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

I wish their graph extended back further ...

Well, BumDaRushShow (below ) found one from 2013 through 2017, so I'll post it here so one can see the two graphs together:
CAUTION: the vertical scales of the two graphs are way different
And beyond that, they sure look different numerically as well, e.g. between the 2 graphs, compare 2016 and the first 2 quarters of 2017






There's this from FRED that goes back all the way to 1950 (but one can set the from and to dates in the boxes above the graph, or move the slider below the graph)

Sorry I don't know how to embed without making a snapshot and posting it on Imgur or somesuch
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

EDITED TO ADD: I went ahead and did one: from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 1st estimate (so as to show the Obama years and Trump years together :smile: , leaving off the Bush Great Recession dive into 2009)




The White House Council of Economic Advisers will no doubt 'splain it all to us, but as of 9:40 AM ET, nothing yet.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/

progree

(10,864 posts)
23. Thanks! Very interesting. Looks like the economy has gotten a lot "tamer" in the last 3 decades
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:45 AM
Oct 2019

I finally added a snapshot of the FRED GDP graph from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 (1st estimate) to #13 above, to focus on the post-Great Recesssion years.

BumRushDaShow

(127,318 posts)
20. Was looking for earlier ones than that
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:13 AM
Oct 2019

but I think some of the graph formats were different but at least you can see the trend.

progree

(10,864 posts)
22. I finally made a snap shot of GDP from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 1st estimate
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:35 AM
Oct 2019

(so as to show the Obama years and Trump years together , leaving off the Bush Great Recession dive into 2009)


BumRushDaShow

(127,318 posts)
26. I had been playing with the data on the chart for a bit
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 11:25 AM
Oct 2019

then had to go outside and start bringing my potted citrus trees in.

 

ritapria

(1,812 posts)
24. Trump promised 5 , 6 or 7% growth
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:45 AM
Oct 2019

Those tax cuts for the rich were supposed trickle down riches upon the rest of us

duforsure

(11,882 posts)
28. We are already seeing the early signs of a recession
Wed Oct 30, 2019, 12:22 PM
Oct 2019

And his policies and actions are the cause, but he'll again claim the opposite then lie about the real economic indicators. He'll do just like W bush did claiming its good, then claim the Democrats are lying, again. You don't run up the debt trillions more , take health care away from millions, start a trade war costing farmers millions, or charge consumers millions more then claim the economy is better, its clearly not.

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