G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown
Source: New York Times
Dogged by uneasiness over trade frictions and weak global growth, the American economy continued to slow over the summer. Gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy -- grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts had forecast a gain of 1.5 percent.
The year started out with a surge, but the pace of growth declined in the spring and again over the period that spanned July, August and September, the first time in a decade that the growth rate has fallen for two consecutive quarters.
Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are expected to end their two days of meetings in Washington on Wednesday afternoon with an announcement that the central bank will again drop its benchmark interest rate to prevent a slowdown from turning into a slide.
"We are expecting the Fed to lower rates," said Lydia Boussour, senior United States economist at Oxford Economics. "I think there is a stronger case now than just a few months ago."
Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/gdp-economy.html
Original article/headline -
By Washington Post Staff
Oct. 30, 2019 at 8:32 a.m. EDT
Growth and business investment are under close scrutiny this year as companies deal with trade war uncertainty and politicians prepare for the 2020 elections.
This is a developing story. It will be updated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/10/30/u-s-economy-strained-in-third-quarter-growing-just-1-9-as-investors-await-key-news-on-jobs-and-interest-rates-this-week/
Updated WaPo article -
By Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam
Oct. 30, 2019 at 8:39 a.m. EDT
The U.S. economy cooled over the summer, growing at a 1.9 percent annualized pace from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, the latest sign that the slowdown is deepening.
Economists anticipated weaker growth after President Trump announced a dramatic expansion of his trade war in early August, spooking business leaders and deterring them from making major investments during a period of so much uncertainty. Consumer spending continues to power the economy, but business investment has slipped sharply, falling 3 percent in the third quarter, the weakest since the end of 2015.
Slow growth abroad and problems at big employers such as Boeing and General Motors also were a drag on growth. Tens of thousands of workers went on strike at GM in September, halting most production at the company. And Boeing, the U.S.'s largest exporter, remains under pressure after two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets in the past year.
After revving to 2.9 percent growth in 2018, the U.S. economy appears to be settling into the slower pace than it notched during the final year of the Obama administration. Trump vowed during his presidential campaign that he could boost the economy to around 4 percent growth, a level not seen in years. He promised at least 3 percent growth a year, an annual pace he has yet to achieve.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/10/30/us-slowdown-deepens-economic-growth-slips-percent-pace-third-quarter/
gab13by13
(20,867 posts)until now. It seems funny that lately, Wall Street analysts are getting their forecasts wrong and always are under the final numbers.
Wall Street analysts predicted a 1.5% GDP that came in at 1.9%
I know, but this administration makes me paranoid.
NotASurfer
(2,138 posts)Released a few months later after people have a chance to forget the "almost 2%" fiction. Might well be revised down to 1.5% or so.
Depending on whether the administration tanks the economy it might even sound like a wistful reminder of better days
progree
(10,864 posts)at the bottom of:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2019-advance-estimate
the 2nd estimate of Q3 will be November 27, 2019
I can't find the 3rd (and final) estimate date, but it will be in late December.
Then they have a nice table of the remaining quarters, for example for Q4:
Advance Estimate January 30, 2020
Second Estimate February 27, 2020
Third Estimate March 26, 2020
and so on for the following quarters -- always following the same pattern: the first estimate , called the "advance estimate" is near the end of the month following the end of the quarter.
The second one is a month later, also near the end of the month,
and ditto for the 3rd and final estimate - about a month after the 2nd estimate and near the end of the month.
durablend
(7,416 posts)"DEMS MAKING THE ECONOMY BAD WITH IMPEACHMENT NONSENSE!!!! RED WAVE COMING BIGLY IN 2020!!!! LOCK THEM ALL UP!!!!!!"
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)still_one
(91,965 posts)They are saying it beat estimates
gab13by13
(20,867 posts)that Trump promised from his tax cuts? Now we're supposed to be happy that GDP hit 1.9% instead of 1.5%?
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)still_one
(91,965 posts)years
Growth has been curtailed significantly since trump, but that isnt the story being propagated
It will be interesting what the fed does with interest rates. If things are so great there is no reason for them to cut
gab13by13
(20,867 posts)I wasn't really directing my comments to you, I shouldn't have put my post to you.
Cutting interest rates is a done deal, Trump wants it. I will be surprised if the Fed bucks Trump.
still_one
(91,965 posts)Roy Rolling
(6,856 posts)Not 4% or 5% as bragged by Trump?
Wheres your messiah now, Trump disciples?
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)of 3 and even 4% growth!11!!!!111!!!!
I think that is what the narrative is here - that there is no "booming economy" (especially once they started begging for interest rate cuts) and moreso because the election is next year. The question then will become will an actual QE start up again next year if this trend continues.
maddogesq
(1,245 posts)We can parse all the numbers we want, but the plain fact is manufacturing is already in a recession, and layoffs are coming, Mark my word.
Look at the ADP report where last months job growth was revised down 43k.
My guess is the real GDP came in under plus 1.5, and that will show in subsequent reports.
Meanwhile on Main Street, look around you peeps...
progree
(10,864 posts)created in October.
The median forecasts that MarketWatch publishes each week in the economic calendar come from the forecasts of the 15 economists who have scored the highest in our contest over the past 12 months, as well as the forecasts of the most recent winner of the Forecaster of the Month contest.
maddogesq
(1,245 posts)will be in service providers.
History repeats itself, and the bull-pucky that comes from the WH or Wall Street sounds a lot like Bush 2 years leading up to the big dumper,
roamer65
(36,739 posts)To quote trends forecaster Gerald Celente.
gab13by13
(20,867 posts)that Trump gave to corporations and the rich is wearing off. Manufacturing is cratering. Trump artificially stimulated the economy with taxpayer dollars that why our deficit is about to hit 1 trillion dollars.
Can you imagine if Obama had carried a 1 trillion dollar deficit?
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)a $1 trillion coin?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/whats-up-with-the-1-trillion-coin/
https://www.businessinsider.com/obama-mint-trillion-dollar-coin-scariest-night-debt-ceiling-2017-1
This was when the GOP manufactured an economic crises with the debt ceiling. Now that has suddenly disappeared.
progree
(10,864 posts)Last edited Wed Oct 30, 2019, 10:48 AM - Edit history (3)
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productI wish their graph extended back further ...
Well, BumDaRushShow (below ) found one from 2013 through 2017, so I'll post it here so one can see the two graphs together:
CAUTION: the vertical scales of the two graphs are way different
And beyond that, they sure look different numerically as well, e.g. between the 2 graphs, compare 2016 and the first 2 quarters of 2017
There's this from FRED that goes back all the way to 1950 (but one can set the from and to dates in the boxes above the graph, or move the slider below the graph)
Sorry I don't know how to embed without making a snapshot and posting it on Imgur or somesuch
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
EDITED TO ADD: I went ahead and did one: from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 1st estimate (so as to show the Obama years and Trump years together :smile: , leaving off the Bush Great Recession dive into 2009)
The White House Council of Economic Advisers will no doubt 'splain it all to us, but as of 9:40 AM ET, nothing yet.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/
progree
(10,864 posts)I finally added a snapshot of the FRED GDP graph from Q4 2009 to Q3 2019 (1st estimate) to #13 above, to focus on the post-Great Recesssion years.
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)Did a quick image search and found an archived earlier one -
progree
(10,864 posts)BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)but I think some of the graph formats were different but at least you can see the trend.
progree
(10,864 posts)(so as to show the Obama years and Trump years together , leaving off the Bush Great Recession dive into 2009)
BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)then had to go outside and start bringing my potted citrus trees in.
ritapria
(1,812 posts)Those tax cuts for the rich were supposed trickle down riches upon the rest of us
Javaman
(62,442 posts)BumRushDaShow
(127,318 posts)Javaman
(62,442 posts)duforsure
(11,882 posts)And his policies and actions are the cause, but he'll again claim the opposite then lie about the real economic indicators. He'll do just like W bush did claiming its good, then claim the Democrats are lying, again. You don't run up the debt trillions more , take health care away from millions, start a trade war costing farmers millions, or charge consumers millions more then claim the economy is better, its clearly not.