Opposition parties agree to block election until Brexit delay secured

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Opposition parties have agreed to reject Boris Johnson’s attempt to trigger a snap election for a second time on Monday, making it increasingly unlikely a poll will be held before 31 October.

Jeremy Corbyn held the latest of a series of discussions with fellow opposition leaders on Friday morning, at which they agreed not to allow an election to take place until after a delay to Brexit has been secured.

Downing Street has tabled a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act for a second time asking MPs to approve an early general election. It requires the support of two-thirds of MPs to pass – impossible without the backing of opposition parties.

Plaid Cymru’s Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts, who was involved in the talks, said: “We need to make sure that we get past 31 October, and an extension to article 50. We were in agreement that the prime minister is on the run. Boris is broken. We have an opportunity to bring down Boris, to break Boris, and to bring down Brexit – and we must take that.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/06/opposition-parties-agree-block-snap-election-until-brexit-delay-secured

[3Hotdogs]

1. Johnson, still batting 1,000

Lost every vote in Parliament.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. There are also good electoral tactical reasons for this

See https://www.democraticunderground.com/108817319

Hold an election 'tomorrow':
Conservatives 37%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 16%, Brexit 9%

Hold it after Oct 31st, with the UK still in the EU:
Conservatives 28%, Labour 28%, Lib Dems 17%, Brexit 18%

The 18% for the Brexit party won't be enough to win them a lot of seats, but they'll come mostly from the Tory vote, splitting the right wing. Labour and the Lib Dems are relatively unaffected.

An attempt at translating those figures into seat numbers from here, using the Scotland figures from the poll: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html

'Tomorrow':
Tory majority of 64 (357 Con, and 0 Brexit, v. 212 Lab, 26 LD, 33 SNP, 1 Green, 3 PC)

> Oct 31st:
Tories and Labour exactly tied
274 Con, and 9 Brexit, v. 274 Lab, 42 LD, 29 SNP, 1 Green, 3 PC

That'd be a bare majority with Lab, Lib Dems, the Green and Plaid Cymru, or a comfortable one including the SNP. The Tories couldn't get anywhere near, even with Brexit and the DUP from Northern Ireland.