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appalachiablue

(41,048 posts)
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:14 AM Jul 2019

Trump Predicted To Lose Reelection In Model That Forecasted Democratic Takeover of House

Source: The Hill

The prediction model that accurately predicted Democratic gains in the House four months before the 2018 midterm elections says President Trump will lose his reelection bid.

The latest "Negative Partisanship" model by Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, released Monday, predicts Trump will lose the Electoral College 278-197. Bitecofer highlighted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as states the incumbent will have difficulty winning this time around.

"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he's the Terminator and can't be stopped," she said. "Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything."

She also pointed to his low approval rating among independents as an impediment to a second term. Bitecofer's model predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup in 2018, and the Democrats won 40. Many other models did not predict such a large victory. -MORE...


Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-predicted-to-lose-reelection-in-model-that-forecasted-democratic-takeover-of-house/ar-AADHrcS?ocid=HPCOMMDHP15



Bitcecofer said, "does the Democrat's nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places," "If the nominee is Biden he'd be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016."

"But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020," she wrote.
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Trump Predicted To Lose Reelection In Model That Forecasted Democratic Takeover of House (Original Post) appalachiablue Jul 2019 OP
Indeed that is good news!! Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #1
A big number, Electoral College 278-197. elleng Jul 2019 #2
Still not sure why we can't pull in Obama-like EC numbers... Drunken Irishman Jul 2019 #4
Depends on our candidates, I'd think; elleng Jul 2019 #6
I just like to blow 'em out of the water. Drunken Irishman Jul 2019 #7
Ditto, and as to '16, too much wrong there, with us, them, and russkies. elleng Jul 2019 #9
It takes a blow out for democracy to revitalize ArizonaLib Jul 2019 #30
The Electoral College is essentially gerrymandered Dopers_Greed Jul 2019 #10
I'd say it deteriorated from 2012 to 2016... Drunken Irishman Jul 2019 #13
1000 Democratic seats were lost between 2008 and 2016 on al levels delisen Jul 2019 #37
Yes and? Drunken Irishman Jul 2019 #38
Except Virginia Polybius Jul 2019 #33
That is true Dopers_Greed Jul 2019 #39
That leaves 63 up for grabs Polybius Jul 2019 #31
Enough people are woke, wasn't worried! Brainfodder Jul 2019 #36
If he is allowed to finish his term...he will not leave voluntarily pbmus Jul 2019 #3
Ex-presidents don't retain White House squatters rights Zambero Jul 2019 #8
He could give two shits about past presidents or precident.... pbmus Jul 2019 #11
And We the People will march right over him. elleng Jul 2019 #12
Exactly MFM008 Jul 2019 #28
Melania had better start plotting her escape Zambero Jul 2019 #40
Oh im sure Dems will get the military or police to haul his ass outta there onetexan Jul 2019 #17
1.20.2021 quaker bill Jul 2019 #34
Complacent then, terrified now Zambero Jul 2019 #5
I don't care what the models say Stargazer09 Jul 2019 #14
Yes elleng Jul 2019 #15
We need to go out in the boondocks and convince new voters to vote for us dustyscamp Jul 2019 #22
I agree JustAnotherGen Jul 2019 #29
"terrified electorate of 2020" vlyons Jul 2019 #16
A bunch of Democrats videohead5 Jul 2019 #18
Pennsylvania governors: elleng Jul 2019 #19
As I understand it, we must drive up turnout in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Numbers in 2016 OrlandoDem2 Jul 2019 #20
Pennsylvania governors: elleng Jul 2019 #21
Detroit's population has shrunk by James48 Jul 2019 #24
Sanders/Harris James48 Jul 2019 #23
Vote. tRump. Out. B Stieg Jul 2019 #25
Except for the constant election theft by the Republicans and their allies by whatever means, diane in sf Jul 2019 #26
No socialists tirebiter Jul 2019 #27
I'm still terrified Bayard Jul 2019 #32
Makes me hope they predict Trump will also end up in prison and that all of the cstanleytech Jul 2019 #35

elleng

(130,126 posts)
2. A big number, Electoral College 278-197.
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:20 AM
Jul 2019

I like it a lot, and the rationale seems rational!

The Democrats are not complacent!!!

May sleep tonight!

There always is the element of THEFT, of course.



May seem counterintuitive, but I'm not spreading this around; don't want to encourage complacency!

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
4. Still not sure why we can't pull in Obama-like EC numbers...
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:22 AM
Jul 2019

I don't think people understand just how transformative of a candidate he was.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
7. I just like to blow 'em out of the water.
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:26 AM
Jul 2019

That was one thing that always gave me pause in 2016...how Trump, even if he were to lose, was not going to be embarrassed...it was going to be a close election regardless and I could never, ever wrap my finger around it. It was so pitiful. I am very petty like that, tho.

Dopers_Greed

(2,640 posts)
10. The Electoral College is essentially gerrymandered
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:35 AM
Jul 2019

Red states are getting redder
Purple states are getting redder

Only already solid blue states are getting bluer

The map significantly deteriorated for us from 2008 to 2016.

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
13. I'd say it deteriorated from 2012 to 2016...
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:39 AM
Jul 2019

Obama only lost two states - Indiana and North Carolina - that he won in 2008. Indiana was a fluke and North Carolina is trending blue but not quite at blue enough to overcome a close victory.

Obama won comfortably in states Democrats lost in 2016. Hopefully they swing back to us in 2020.

delisen

(6,039 posts)
37. 1000 Democratic seats were lost between 2008 and 2016 on al levels
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 07:56 PM
Jul 2019

The 2010 backlash against the passage of ACA allowed the Republicans to take control in many states in a census year and gerrymander, More Republicans in state offices allowed them to systematically suppress democratic voters through purging of voter rolls and putting barriers to voting in place. (I lost my vote in one of these years because I sent for an absentee ballot which never came). Voting machines in many districts throughout the country have little security and no paper trail so that true recounts are impossible.

The Democratic Party on the national level was relatively flush with money in 2008 and just about broke in 2016.
(This last reason was a self-inflicted wound, as is Democrats having a tendency to concentrate on presidential election years).

Two Supreme Court decisions, Citizens United in 2010 and another shortly thereafter that allowed corporate spending on elections to be considered as free speech and another that allowed for dark money to be spent. In 2013 the Supreme Court did away with a key provision in the Civil Rights Act which protected minority voters in Southern states- this further suppressed Democratic voters.

In 2016 we had the added involvement of of foreign governments, Russia and probably others and we ourselves, the voters, were. not informed. This investigation is ongoing and Jimmy Carter's observation the other day that Trump has not really won the election in 2016 probably points to major news yet to come out-Carter probably still gets briefed on security issues.

When we are not informed, we don't participate in securing our elections, and then we are susceptible to propaganda-false narrative are developed about why election results don't match polling data, or exit polls, and then we base decisions about future elections upon those false narratives.

The attack on the voting system actually began (in this century) in 2000 in Florida but it has expanded, almost unchecked, between 2008 and now. I expect that Russia and Republican operatives are gearing up for 2020 (another presidential election and a reapportionment year).

In 2012 much of the Republican Party were unenthusiastic about Mitt Romney and their main concern was keeping the House and Senate and continuing to take over state offices and legislatures. This cycle they will do everything they can to take back the House and their best bet is to go after the newly elected reps from 2018.

So if we are able to elect a Democratic president, with the House and Senate they will be able to block most legislation.

If Trump becomes too big a liability, they will dump him and the old guard in the party probably already know who they will back.








 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
38. Yes and?
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 08:06 PM
Jul 2019

2008 the GOP was the post in power after two massively failures of war, a mega-recession and a morale lower then at any point in history. Even then, the party bounced back. 2008 was an anomaly for both parties.

Dopers_Greed

(2,640 posts)
39. That is true
Wed Jul 3, 2019, 03:54 PM
Jul 2019

Also, Texas is starting to turn purple.

Doesn't change the fact that for now, EC is heavily tilted toward Repugs.

Polybius

(15,235 posts)
31. That leaves 63 up for grabs
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 10:42 AM
Jul 2019

So if Trump gets those 63 and gets just one upset state, he wins. I'm worried too.

Brainfodder

(6,423 posts)
36. Enough people are woke, wasn't worried!
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:25 PM
Jul 2019

The NOT protecting the voting machine integrity BS, that's another matter.


Zambero

(8,954 posts)
8. Ex-presidents don't retain White House squatters rights
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:29 AM
Jul 2019

Barring another "Moscow Miracle", come January 20, 2020 he can choose to leave voluntarily or otherwise. His newfound standing as a private citizen would not differ one way or another.

pbmus

(12,418 posts)
11. He could give two shits about past presidents or precident....
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:35 AM
Jul 2019

He will claim illegitimate election and surround the White House with trumpers...

Zambero

(8,954 posts)
40. Melania had better start plotting her escape
Wed Jul 3, 2019, 04:40 PM
Jul 2019

Nothing like being held prisoner by a mob of red-hatted whack jobs!

onetexan

(12,994 posts)
17. Oh im sure Dems will get the military or police to haul his ass outta there
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 02:09 AM
Jul 2019

Not an issue at all. Im just so darn glad the polls are starting to reflect the reality - that we have a dictator wannabe conman illegit POTUS we need to kick out &have him locked up.

Zambero

(8,954 posts)
5. Complacent then, terrified now
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:23 AM
Jul 2019

That just about says it all. Democrats and many many independents will be willing to crawl through broken glass in order to get to the polls and terminate the Terminator.

Stargazer09

(2,131 posts)
14. I don't care what the models say
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:42 AM
Jul 2019

With all of the foreigners who will benefit from re-electing MF45, and with McConnell blocking all election reform, our country is in huge trouble.

As we’ve seen in previous elections, the “will of the people” isn’t important. All that matters is who is counting the votes.

We have a lot of work to do.

dustyscamp

(2,221 posts)
22. We need to go out in the boondocks and convince new voters to vote for us
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 03:28 AM
Jul 2019

We need Independents, estranged Republicans, people who don't care to vote D this coming election

videohead5

(2,150 posts)
18. A bunch of Democrats
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 02:10 AM
Jul 2019

Did not vote in 2016. Either because they thought Hillary was going to win anyway or voter suppression with help from the Russians. votes in Philadelphia was down 100,000 from 2012.

elleng

(130,126 posts)
19. Pennsylvania governors:
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 02:29 AM
Jul 2019

Tom Corbett January 18, 2011 January 20, 2015 Republican

Tom Wolf January 20, 2015 Incumbent Democratic

elleng

(130,126 posts)
21. Pennsylvania governors:
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 02:54 AM
Jul 2019

Tom Corbett January 18, 2011 January 20, 2015 Republican

Tom Wolf January 20, 2015 Incumbent Democratic

James48

(4,416 posts)
24. Detroit's population has shrunk by
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 03:34 AM
Jul 2019

Hundreds of thousands over the Detroit of old. We need to expand Dem votes in ALL 83 counties in Michigan to change things.

James48

(4,416 posts)
23. Sanders/Harris
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 03:32 AM
Jul 2019

With Warren as the Secretary of the Treasury; Biden as Secretary of State; young Secretary Buttigieg in charge of Dept of Labor, and solid team of progressives across the remaining departments will make a great change in 2021.

diane in sf

(3,904 posts)
26. Except for the constant election theft by the Republicans and their allies by whatever means,
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 04:18 AM
Jul 2019

this would be of some comfort.

Bayard

(21,802 posts)
32. I'm still terrified
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 10:43 AM
Jul 2019

Precautions are still not being taken to combat Russian influence in the next election. Even when its in plain sight. Putin sees that, and will double down in the next year.

I'm really, really hoping that after Mueller testifies, we can begin impeachment proceedings. Terminate the sham before another election is stolen.

I don't think any amount of interference could keep Pence in office.

cstanleytech

(26,080 posts)
35. Makes me hope they predict Trump will also end up in prison and that all of the
Tue Jul 2, 2019, 01:22 PM
Jul 2019

Trump family assets are seized after they are convicted for criminal activity.
Followed up of course by another prediction that Mitch McConnell and various other Repugnants like Nunes will end up in prison for the rest of their lives.

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