Trump Predicted To Lose Reelection In Model That Forecasted Democratic Takeover of House
Source: The Hill
The prediction model that accurately predicted Democratic gains in the House four months before the 2018 midterm elections says President Trump will lose his reelection bid.
The latest "Negative Partisanship" model by Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, released Monday, predicts Trump will lose the Electoral College 278-197. Bitecofer highlighted Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as states the incumbent will have difficulty winning this time around.
"The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he's the Terminator and can't be stopped," she said. "Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything."
She also pointed to his low approval rating among independents as an impediment to a second term. Bitecofer's model predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup in 2018, and the Democrats won 40. Many other models did not predict such a large victory. -MORE...
Read more: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-predicted-to-lose-reelection-in-model-that-forecasted-democratic-takeover-of-house/ar-AADHrcS?ocid=HPCOMMDHP15
Bitcecofer said, "does the Democrat's nominee matter? Sure, to an extent. If the ticket has a woman, a person of color or a Latino, or a female who is also a person of color, Democratic Party turnout will surge more in really important places," "If the nominee is Biden he'd be well-advised to consider Democratic voter turnout his number one consideration when drawing his running mate to avoid the critical mistake made by Hillary Clinton in 2016."
"But the Democrats are not complacent like they were in 2016 and I doubt there is any amount of polling or favorable forecasts that will make them so. That fear will play a crucial role in their 2020 victory. We will not see a divided Democratic Party in 2020," she wrote.
Thekaspervote
(32,606 posts)elleng
(130,126 posts)I like it a lot, and the rationale seems rational!
The Democrats are not complacent!!!
May sleep tonight!
There always is the element of THEFT, of course.
May seem counterintuitive, but I'm not spreading this around; don't want to encourage complacency!
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)I don't think people understand just how transformative of a candidate he was.
elleng
(130,126 posts)I'm NOT worrying about it (at the moment.)
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)That was one thing that always gave me pause in 2016...how Trump, even if he were to lose, was not going to be embarrassed...it was going to be a close election regardless and I could never, ever wrap my finger around it. It was so pitiful. I am very petty like that, tho.
elleng
(130,126 posts)ArizonaLib
(1,242 posts)When it gets close enough to steal, they always steal it.
Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)Red states are getting redder
Purple states are getting redder
Only already solid blue states are getting bluer
The map significantly deteriorated for us from 2008 to 2016.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Obama only lost two states - Indiana and North Carolina - that he won in 2008. Indiana was a fluke and North Carolina is trending blue but not quite at blue enough to overcome a close victory.
Obama won comfortably in states Democrats lost in 2016. Hopefully they swing back to us in 2020.
delisen
(6,039 posts)The 2010 backlash against the passage of ACA allowed the Republicans to take control in many states in a census year and gerrymander, More Republicans in state offices allowed them to systematically suppress democratic voters through purging of voter rolls and putting barriers to voting in place. (I lost my vote in one of these years because I sent for an absentee ballot which never came). Voting machines in many districts throughout the country have little security and no paper trail so that true recounts are impossible.
The Democratic Party on the national level was relatively flush with money in 2008 and just about broke in 2016.
(This last reason was a self-inflicted wound, as is Democrats having a tendency to concentrate on presidential election years).
Two Supreme Court decisions, Citizens United in 2010 and another shortly thereafter that allowed corporate spending on elections to be considered as free speech and another that allowed for dark money to be spent. In 2013 the Supreme Court did away with a key provision in the Civil Rights Act which protected minority voters in Southern states- this further suppressed Democratic voters.
In 2016 we had the added involvement of of foreign governments, Russia and probably others and we ourselves, the voters, were. not informed. This investigation is ongoing and Jimmy Carter's observation the other day that Trump has not really won the election in 2016 probably points to major news yet to come out-Carter probably still gets briefed on security issues.
When we are not informed, we don't participate in securing our elections, and then we are susceptible to propaganda-false narrative are developed about why election results don't match polling data, or exit polls, and then we base decisions about future elections upon those false narratives.
The attack on the voting system actually began (in this century) in 2000 in Florida but it has expanded, almost unchecked, between 2008 and now. I expect that Russia and Republican operatives are gearing up for 2020 (another presidential election and a reapportionment year).
In 2012 much of the Republican Party were unenthusiastic about Mitt Romney and their main concern was keeping the House and Senate and continuing to take over state offices and legislatures. This cycle they will do everything they can to take back the House and their best bet is to go after the newly elected reps from 2018.
So if we are able to elect a Democratic president, with the House and Senate they will be able to block most legislation.
If Trump becomes too big a liability, they will dump him and the old guard in the party probably already know who they will back.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)2008 the GOP was the post in power after two massively failures of war, a mega-recession and a morale lower then at any point in history. Even then, the party bounced back. 2008 was an anomaly for both parties.
Polybius
(15,235 posts)It went from Red to purple to blue in 10 years.
Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)Also, Texas is starting to turn purple.
Doesn't change the fact that for now, EC is heavily tilted toward Repugs.
Polybius
(15,235 posts)So if Trump gets those 63 and gets just one upset state, he wins. I'm worried too.
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)The NOT protecting the voting machine integrity BS, that's another matter.
pbmus
(12,418 posts)Zambero
(8,954 posts)Barring another "Moscow Miracle", come January 20, 2020 he can choose to leave voluntarily or otherwise. His newfound standing as a private citizen would not differ one way or another.
pbmus
(12,418 posts)He will claim illegitimate election and surround the White House with trumpers...
elleng
(130,126 posts)🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
Zambero
(8,954 posts)Nothing like being held prisoner by a mob of red-hatted whack jobs!
onetexan
(12,994 posts)Not an issue at all. Im just so darn glad the polls are starting to reflect the reality - that we have a dictator wannabe conman illegit POTUS we need to kick out &have him locked up.
quaker bill
(8,223 posts)sorry bout thst
Zambero
(8,954 posts)That just about says it all. Democrats and many many independents will be willing to crawl through broken glass in order to get to the polls and terminate the Terminator.
Stargazer09
(2,131 posts)With all of the foreigners who will benefit from re-electing MF45, and with McConnell blocking all election reform, our country is in huge trouble.
As weve seen in previous elections, the will of the people isnt important. All that matters is who is counting the votes.
We have a lot of work to do.
dustyscamp
(2,221 posts)We need Independents, estranged Republicans, people who don't care to vote D this coming election
JustAnotherGen
(31,681 posts)We need to act like MF45 is inevitable.
vlyons
(10,252 posts)That's me!
videohead5
(2,150 posts)Did not vote in 2016. Either because they thought Hillary was going to win anyway or voter suppression with help from the Russians. votes in Philadelphia was down 100,000 from 2012.
elleng
(130,126 posts)Tom Corbett January 18, 2011 January 20, 2015 Republican
Tom Wolf January 20, 2015 Incumbent Democratic
OrlandoDem2
(2,064 posts)were low.
elleng
(130,126 posts)Tom Corbett January 18, 2011 January 20, 2015 Republican
Tom Wolf January 20, 2015 Incumbent Democratic
James48
(4,416 posts)Hundreds of thousands over the Detroit of old. We need to expand Dem votes in ALL 83 counties in Michigan to change things.
James48
(4,416 posts)With Warren as the Secretary of the Treasury; Biden as Secretary of State; young Secretary Buttigieg in charge of Dept of Labor, and solid team of progressives across the remaining departments will make a great change in 2021.
B Stieg
(2,410 posts)diane in sf
(3,904 posts)this would be of some comfort.
tirebiter
(2,520 posts)One of the points is renormalisation to liberal democracy.
Bayard
(21,802 posts)Precautions are still not being taken to combat Russian influence in the next election. Even when its in plain sight. Putin sees that, and will double down in the next year.
I'm really, really hoping that after Mueller testifies, we can begin impeachment proceedings. Terminate the sham before another election is stolen.
I don't think any amount of interference could keep Pence in office.
cstanleytech
(26,080 posts)Trump family assets are seized after they are convicted for criminal activity.
Followed up of course by another prediction that Mitch McConnell and various other Repugnants like Nunes will end up in prison for the rest of their lives.