Republicans hold on to Arizona House seat
Source: The Hill
Republican Debbie Lesko is projected to win Arizonas nationally watched special election, fending off a strong challenge from Democrats who have been over-performing in deep-red seats.
Lesko, a former state senator, defeated Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a former emergency room doctor and first-time candidate, on Tuesday night in a solidly Republican district that President Trump won by 21 points in 2016.
Tuesdays special election was triggered by the resignation of GOP Rep. Trent Franks, who stepped down in December after allegedly asking a staffer to carry his child. Lesko will serve out the remainder of Frankss term, and is expected to run again in November for a full two-year term.
Republicans were expected to hang onto the GOP stronghold, but national groups took a more cautious approach after a major Democratic upset in last months Pennsylvania special election.
Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/384654-republicans-hold-on-to-arizona-house-seat
mobeau69
(11,167 posts)Go Blue!
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)facing indictment for corruption. She was an ordinary Republican candidate who didn't do well at all in Sheriff Arpaio's district against a foreign-born Democratic opponent, another woman with a foreign name.
Oh, and the Republican Party outspent the Democratic Party in this special election for a temporary seat by $1 million to 0. (The contributions to our Democratic candidate were all from individuals and Democratic groups.)
Cook report says there are 147 GOP-held House seats less red than this district. Lesko now has to run all over again to keep the seat in November, but even having 78,000 more registered voters than the Democrats doesn't make it a sure thing at all.
The Mouth
(3,169 posts)That's got to put a scare into 'em.
tirebiter
(2,539 posts)<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Woohoo! With tonight's 59-41 win in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NYAD10?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NYAD10</a>, Democrats flip their 40th legislative seat of the cycle! <a href="https://t.co/pc9BxO9DZI">https://t.co/pc9BxO9DZI</a></p>— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) <a href="
Link to tweet
?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 25, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Judi Lynn
(160,656 posts)Their time to fade into the background is on its way.
The world is so sick of fascists. They are in their death throes even as we post. The information regarding how they behave when they have power isn't going to die with the generations, now that we have ways of preserving great records forever! They have always relied on the fact their victims either die right away or soon, and the new people born won't remember how bad it was, while the greedy, slimy next generation maggots kept the disease, evil, and greed alive.
All that is changing. Dirtbags will be going down!
spooky3
(34,517 posts)It's currently 53% Lesko. He's now explaining that there are a lot of outstanding ballots, etc., but that it would be VERY difficult for Tipirneni to make up the difference.
Even if it ends up this way, that is an outstanding Dem performance in a very red district!
"If you are a Republican, you should be very nervous!"
left-of-center2012
(34,195 posts)But it may not be enough.
DeminPennswoods
(15,292 posts)It's about 74% of the vote, but Kornacki said none of the early ballots that were turned today or the actual election day vote has been counted/released. He estimated those numbers at 15-16k and 19k respectively. If those estimates are close, Tipirneni would need about 2/3s to win. It's a long shot, though.
spooky3
(34,517 posts)Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)jmowreader
(50,580 posts)The district is mostly rural and packed with senior citizens - perfect GOP country.
The suburban precincts swung Democratic by 15 points - Trump +18, Lesko +3.
The rural precincts did worse: Trump +31, Lesko +13, swing blue +18.
From the looks of this, the GOP has a harder task in November than we do. They are counting on big pickups of Democratic seats so as to give Trump a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a solid majority in the House. Right now, I'd say they are going to be extremely lucky to come out of this with a Senate majority - remember, they lose three seats and the Trump agenda is dead - and there's a non-zero chance the whole Congress flips.
marybourg
(12,648 posts)But now mostly suburban.
Response to jmowreader (Reply #11)
oberliner This message was self-deleted by its author.
DinahMoeHum
(21,825 posts). . .from Salon's perspective. . .
https://www.salon.com/2018/04/24/democrats-probably-wont-win-arizonas-special-election-but-the-gops-still-in-trouble/
(boldface emphasis is mine - DMH)
(snip)
Nearly everyone in politics expects Lesko to defeat Tipirneni, but they'll be paying close attention to her margin of victory. However Republicans choose to spin this, the fact is that anything less than a 10 percent edge will smell like an impending November disaster for the GOP.
Arizona may well have two Senate races in November, with Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema apparently leading in the race to replace retiring Republican Jeff Flake, and Sen. John McCain's health very much in question. If Lesko's margin on Tuesday is in the single digits, watch out for even more GOP retirements, and a widening sense that even states they thought were under control are starting to slip away.
(snip)
BlueMTexpat
(15,374 posts)It does give hope for November!
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Democrats held this district not that long ago.
padfun
(1,792 posts)This is West Phoenix and Glendale.
This area is Sun City Retirement people.
Bengus81
(6,936 posts)And no doubt suck the life out of social security. What the FUCK is wrong with people?? What...it HAS to happen before they get mad enough to vote their best interests? Hate to tell em but by then it's TOO LATE.
BumRushDaShow
(129,879 posts)AZ-8 POST-2012 - (Trent Franks)
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Hard to keep track with all the re-districting going on.
BumRushDaShow
(129,879 posts)I confirmed that AZ gained a seat after the 2010 census so they had to redraw anyway.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)The only question I have is whether or not you are willfully understating the significance of the democratic swing in this district, or if you just dont understand it.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Did not realize the redistricting change. Mea culpa for the ignorance on my part.
Kingofalldems
(38,503 posts)highplainsdem
(49,091 posts)not quite 10,000 uncounted early votes, early ballots that arrived by mail or were dropped off in-person today. Those won't be counted till tomorrow.
So a 5-point margin, where Trump won by 21. NOT good news for the GOP.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Gabby Giffords was re-elected twice.
padfun
(1,792 posts)"After redistricting for the 2012 general election, the new 8th district encompasses most of the Maricopa County portion of the old 2nd district, while most of the former 8th district became the 2nd congressional district.[3] It is the geographic and demographic successor of the old 2nd; while the 4th district contains most of the old 2nd's land, more than 92 percent of the old 2nd's constituents were drawn into the 8th.[4]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona%27s_8th_congressional_district
BumRushDaShow
(129,879 posts)AZ-8 POST-2012 - (Trent Franks)
oberliner
(58,724 posts)Redistricting always throws things off for me when I try to keep track of this sort of thing. Appreciate the info!
kimbutgar
(21,240 posts)Been in that district, tea party central, lot of Twitler signs during the election and they have the time to vote.