Trump's Trade Pullout Roils Rural America

[highplainsdem]

Source: Politico

For much of industrial America, the TPP was a suspect deal, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement, which some argue led to a massive offshoring of U.S. jobs to Mexico. But for the already struggling agricultural sector, the sprawling 12-nation TPP, covering 40 percent of the world’s economy, was a lifeline. It was a chance to erase punishing tariffs that restricted the United States — the onetime “breadbasket of the world” — from selling its meats, grains and dairy products to massive importers of foodstuffs such as Japan and Vietnam.

The decision to pull out of the trade deal has become a double hit on places like Eagle Grove. The promised bump of $10 billion in agricultural output over 15 years, based on estimates by the U.S. International Trade Commission, won’t materialize. But Trump’s decision to withdraw from the pact also cleared the way for rival exporters such as Australia, New Zealand and the European Union to negotiate even lower tariffs with importing nations, creating potentially greater competitive advantages over U.S. exports.

-snip-

On July 6, the EU, which already exports as much pork to Japan as the United States does, announced political agreement on a new deal that would give European pork farmers an advantage of up to $2 per pound over U.S. exporters under certain circumstances — a move which, if unchecked, is all but certain to create a widening gap between EU exports and those from the United States.

-snip-

The EU’s deal is all the more noteworthy because American farmers were relying on the TPP — to which the EU was not a member — to give them an advantage over European competitors. But in a further rebuke to the United States, Tokyo decided within a matter of weeks to offer the European nations virtually the same agricultural access to its market that United States trade officials had spent two excruciating years extracting through near-monthly meetings with their Japanese counterparts on the sidelines of the broader TPP negotiations; the United States is now left out.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/07/trump-tpp-deal-withdrawal-trade-effects-215459

[nycbos]

1. What? You meaning taking away markets for their products doesn't help them?

[jpak]

2. They can all become coal miners!

MAGA!!!!1111

[bora13]

63. apparently

it looks like his administration's goal is to make coal great again.
cuz it was great way back when.
and then it wasn't.

[geek tragedy]

3. farmers know better than anyone that they reap what they sow.

Rural America helped bring this upon themselves last November.

[Coventina]

4. Yep. No pity.

[LonePirate]

5. I'm not sure rural America has connected those dots.

In their eyes, Republicans can do no wrong hence their reflexive habit of voting for them every single election.

[geek tragedy]

6. another 20 years of opioid dystopia and shriveling economic opportunities

might convince them that MAGA was a scam.

But probably not. Don't they still think professional wrestling is real?

[maxrandb]

13. And 1200 hate radio stations

Pumping their heads full of shit. Hell, limpballs could tell them that cutting taxes on the rich will result in trickle down jobs and they'd vote Retrumplican... wait... nevermind

[DK504]

21. The cherry on the top of this exploding nightmare

is the DeVos Dept. of "Education" and her non-stop dismantling of Americans shot a descent education we should be illiterate within a generation.

So much winning!!!!!

[progressoid]

23. Definitely not. I know some people like this.

They live in their own little bubble of "truth". Even if they do realize they've been duped, they are too stubborn to admit it. And if they eventually decide that the GOP is corrupt, they certainly won't vote for a Democrat.

The best we can hope for is that they stop voting. And we work on changing the next generation.

[maxrandb]

25. Well he did say he could shoot someone in the face on 5th Ave

And not lose support. I'm sure he's right about that as long as the shootee is a person of color.

Good God I hate his fucked up supporters for what they've done to our country

[TeamPooka]

28. or Chris Christie

[NickB79]

55. The farmer down the road had a 10'x20' "TRUMP" sign in his field last year

Right alongside a paved road. My wife talked me down from using it for target practice a few times.

Just last month, he finally took it down. A part of me hopes he did so because he's finally seeing how screwed he's going to be thanks to Trump.

[broadcaster90210]

7. Awwww. Trump voters.

I'll get back to you when I care.

[yallerdawg]

8. THIS is not "Revisionist History!"

Many of us supported President Obama's 8-year-long effort to conclude TPP!

He is a Democrat, after all, and leader of our party. Many of us rejected the notion that he would be making a "bad deal" for the American people - for some "mysterious" reason.

Now, the crazy result is looking more and more like the rejected TPP will be offered in bi-lateral trade deals, anyway - if we want to stay competitive in a global economy.

It just won't have Barack Obama's name attached to it.

Like we don't know!

[riversedge]

10. Agree, I was not against the TPP and I am from a rural area.

[riversedge]

14. Japan Slaps 50% Tariff on Some U.S. Beef

FYI.




TheSquarePouf? @SquarePouf Jul 28

Japan Slaps 50% Tariff on Some U.S. Beef https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-slaps-50-tariff-on-some-u-s-beef-1501224760 … So tired of winning already! It's just so boring... #magamyass

Link to tweet

[riversedge]

62. Trump's withdrawal from #TPP has destroyed the livestock industry's hopes of soaring export growth

Trump and his deal making team are slow. Other nations are stepping in to make trade deals.




The Daily Edge Retweeted
Richard Hine? @richardhine 2h2 hours ago

Trump's withdrawal from #TPP has destroyed the livestock industry's hopes of soaring export growth #MAGAnomics #Fail

Link to tweet

[karynnj]

20. I argued for it and HATED that both Clinton and Sanders attacked it

Bernie was always against trade deals and I thought he was wrong on the economics. I especially hated that he spoke of it costing jobs in Michigan when far more jobs moved first to the non union South.

Clinton was more complicated. TPP was the jewel of the shift to Asia. It was, in fact, her top accomplishment as SoS. I think she made a huge error shifting her position. One it did not ring true and two it hurt when some GS tapes came out with her praising it in 2013.

[JHan]

27. +++++++++++++

Apparently all that pressure didn't exist, apparently my memory of the complaints from the left that she wasn't listening to them, that the Democratic platform wasn't antagonistic enough on trade.. are all figments of my imagination and never happened.

[ucrdem]

30. Thank you, your memories are just like mine.

She did what she had to do but it was like one more leg-iron she had drag around the whole time, in addition to the forty others some of us never seem to remember.

[JHan]

33. And..

If she came out and challenged the nonsense in a direct blunt Hillary way we would not have heard the end of it and the convention would have been even more raucous, more bullshit to use as propaganda, more shit flung in her direction.

[karynnj]

32. She thought it could hurt in the primaries

However, she could have made a case for it -echoing what Obama, Kerry, Lew etc were saying. She could have pointed out that SANDER's own economic adviser agreed that the deal would increase the size of the "pie". She could have argued that that and side legislation to help those hurt by taxing some of extra gain would have made it fairer.

That gets you EXACTLY to a solution to people hurt by economic change.

It was her campaigns decision. It would have made the majority of DU angry, but it would have been an honest answer that would have helped on her weakest issues. It would have answered the triangulating, finger in the air characterizations and I think would have won her respect.

[JHan]

34. I too wished she came out strongly against the nonsense about the TPP but..

it's too easy to forget the zeitgeist of last year and the machinations against her campaign. Hindsight is 20/20

the trade argument was linked to the anti-establishment arguments - and Trump linked those sentiments in his demagoguery.

It would have been an issue even after the primaries.

For a long ass election campaign, policy was barely talked about ... Americans should wonder why.

[karynnj]

37. You can't blame anyone but her team on this

I suspect they polled the Democratic electorate and when they saw that it was not popular, they opted to have her shift 180 degrees rather than trust her ability to make a case for it.

I could be wrong, but I strongly believe that had she even done a half hearted effort on that, she would still have won the primaries. For antone for whom this was the top issue, I would guess they would prefer Bernie and not trust her 180 degree shift. It would have positioned her better in the general election.

That said -- being a strategist for a campaign is tough and something I have no qualifications for.

[JHan]

38. The reason I mention zeitgeist..

is that there are circumstances out of our control - this applies in life, we understand this in our own lives, why it is not considered in politics mystifies me..

So it is not just her team, but the circumstances and pressures she faced. Acknowledging those pressures doesn't excuse her team, but provides a far more honest assessment of "what happened".

EDIT: I also don't get how anyone could forget how being pro-TPP last year was to risk being seen as a corporate shill.... this was the reality last year. I used to argue in favor of it, I WANTED it, and I faced abuse no matter how I framed my argument.

President Obama got dragged by all the usual suspects - Robert Reich, etc etc ... hell on Robert's page people calling themselves liberals proffered conspiracy nonsense that Obama was BRIBED to do the deal. Robert himself made a character judgement about Obama because of the deal, not to mention the way Obama got little support among Democratic politicians to defend it.. I mean come on..

That was the reality last year Karynnj , the noise from the ignorant was louder than the noise from the sane.

[karynnj]

46. I do remember and I was with you

However, long ago, I saw that it is all too easy to forget that DU and people like Reich lean pretty left. Remember Obama won in 2012 in spite of it.

Giving those speeches to GS likely hurt her more than taking a principled position.

[JHan]

48. but it wasn't just a silo issue on DU...or on Reich's page...for example..

I only signed up to DU after the primaries but already I've picked up on how contentious things were around here...

Rhetoric from the far left and rhetoric from the right united on this issue..( there were even articles at the Federalist pushing back on the anti trade sentiment among Republicans, especially when some Republicans were attempting to call the TPP "Obamatrade", hoping for the rhetorical success they had with "Obamacare".) Anti trade talk from left and right only strengthened Trump and I've never seen that kind of a constellation in politics in real time....

And the Obama win in 2012 was a warning that the coalition wasn't as strong as it was in 2008, no doubt there was over reliance on the meme that the coalition was still strong but the undercurrents of last year were undeniable.

[StevieM]

60. I agree that she should not have dropped her support for TPP.

Here is a good take on what would have happened if she had been elected:

“As far as I’ve read in the press, Secretary Clinton has launched one critique against TPP, that it does not do a good job of disciplining the misbehavior of countries that manipulate the value of their currencies for trade gain,” said economist Lee Branstetter, of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh and the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “What’s true is that TPP does not include a currency chapter. It does not deal with this issue.

“But what this means is that if the TPP could be coupled with a separate piece of legislation that offers at least some tools for policymakers to deal with currency manipulation as a trade barrier, then the big problem Secretary Clinton has identified would be solved, at least in principle. At that point, I think she could support the TPP and an anti-currency manipulator bill as a package without appearing to contradict herself.”

https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-07-28/hillary-clinton-s-stand-nafta-and-tpp-it-s-complicated-and-evolving

[GulfCoast66]

65. Right there with you

The Democratic Party has been the party of Free Trade back to FDR. We felt that if we pushed free trade other positive values of America would go with it, countries would move out of poverty and all nations would have increased wealth. And that is what happened.

Only problem was that in the US since Reagan the average person has not seen the increase in wealth entirely due to Republican policies. Sure we need to make sure we are not just creating sweatshops to replace American workers, but the TPP actually addressed that for the first time ever. Hell, China is getting too expensive for super low priced goods as their people get pissed at slave labor conditions and insist on a middle class lifestyle. I was there last year and they will not much longer be willing to work for nothing. Vietnam and Bangladesh are about all that is left and they will soon demand better conditions and pay.

We will regret like hell rejecting that treaty.

Ironically how you see less and less attacking of the TPP since the election here on DU. Wonder why that is?

[riversedge]

9. I recall reading about these long meetings during Obama era to make deals. Now the U.S is left out

and reading threw the article, Trump is not doing the deal making as promised. Other countries are filling the voids. damn.



....The EU’s deal is all the more noteworthy because American farmers were relying on the TPP — to which the EU was not a member — to give them an advantage over European competitors. But in a further rebuke to the United States, Tokyo decided within a matter of weeks to offer the European nations virtually the same agricultural access to its market that United States trade officials had spent two excruciating years extracting through near-monthly meetings with their Japanese counterparts on the sidelines of the broader TPP negotiations; the United States is now left out.

[Sunlei]

11. other TPP countries happy to fill trade void /w billions in their beef, meats, dairy and grain.

china wasn't a TPP country but they sure jumped in to accept trade items for their booming middle class consumers. tripled meat and dairy imports in only a few years.

[hatrack]

12. Wright County, IA: November 8 2016 - Trump: 63.7%; Clinton: 31.8%

You got what you overwhelmingly voted for.

We're sucking it up, you assholes - so why don't you just STFU and OWN YOUR VOTES?

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/iowa/

[Dawson Leery]

17. Tories never own up to their errors. The always blame a minority group

for their own doings.

[spooky3]

40. +1

[JHan]

42. +++

[progressoid]

49. Sadly, there are areas in IA that voted nearly 80% for him.

Immediately after he was inaugurated, they started to bitch about losing corn sales to Mexico because of Drumpf's idiotic tweets.

[JHan]

16. yeah ..thanks Obama!

[David__77]

18. Well, both candidates opposed TPP.

Right?

I point that out because I imagine that there was no pro-TPP candidate to choose between the top two.

[karynnj]

22. Exactly and it was a major error for Clinton

TPP was her major foreign policy accomplishment with other Obama cabinet members. She never even tried to explain it. As she was very positive on it in 2013 and 2014, no one totally believed she was against it. I suspected that after her win, it would pass in the lame duck perhaps with a side bill to "improve it" without changing the bill itself .. with Clinton's apptoval.

[moda253]

26. Tough to explain anything

when you aren't getting much air time and the only thing you are left with is trying to quiet down the wailing babies pounding their fists because government is soooo easy if we'd just listen to them.

I mean when was she supposed to explain intensely complicated trade scenarios? At the convention when she was being interrupted by these people that didn't want to discuss anything? At her campaign rallies that would constantly cut out to get KAC's talking points or to talk about pussy grabbing or any number of other crap that had nothing to do with policy?

People slam her for not talking about policy but the truth is the media was so enamored with superficial bullshit she had no choice but to go there or she would have never gotten ANY camera time at all.

[karynnj]

41. I did not say it would have been easy

I think the place would have been the Democratic debates . She could have channelled HRC 2008 in the first several debates, where she highlighted her competence and experience. Bernie was not Obama.

What I could imagine she could have done would have been to speak to the gains for the state she was in. If you say that it creates a better market for grains including corn when in Iowa, it makes it personal. In HRC, we had a candidate articulate enough to do that. Not to mention, she genuinely played an important role here.

I doubt she would have lost many votes because of it and I think she would not have been hurt by the GS tapes coming out. That and the poor way she handled the email issue cost her enormously in perception of her trustwortiness. So, it was not just a position on an issue.

[The Mouth]

56. Correct.

She *WAS* talking about policy. No one was listening.

Now, I didn't agree with every single one of her positions, but she had good reasons, well articulated and backed up with plenty of expert opinion and data for them.

[Jim Lane]

64. Tough to explain anything when you approach it by trying to rewrite history.

There was a legitimate policy disagreement within the Democratic electorate. Sanders and O'Malley were articulating the anti-TPP position and were hammering Clinton for having called it "the gold standard". In response, she said in the first debate that she had said she "hoped" it would be the gold standard -- a characterization of her Adelaide speech that was, to put it charitably, not in accord with the record.

As someone who supported Bernie Sanders, I can completely agree with you that the media were "enamored with superficial bullshit" to the detriment of substantive coverage. Clinton didn't get enough coverage for her policy analyses but of course neither did Sanders.

Nevertheless, Clinton's underlying problem on TPP wasn't the coverage. It was, as noted elsewhere in this thread, that Clinton did not lay out a coherent and principled position on trade. She didn't adhere to her previous position and offer a forthright pro-TPP argument. She didn't even say on TPP, as she did on Iraq, "I made a mistake." Either of those approaches would have been politically superior. Instead, she tried to compete for the anti-TPP vote by misrepresenting her past position, downplaying her role in this major foreign-policy initiative of the Obama administration, and then saying that she was against the final deal because it didn't address currency manipulation -- a subject that hadn't been in any of the drafts and that the Obama administration hadn't even pursued because it would have been a nonstarter.

I, as a TPP opponent, would have voted for Clinton even if she had been openly pro-TPP, because on all other issues she was so vastly superior to Trump. Who knows what would have happened if she had attacked Trump on his opposition to TPP. Certainly she would have alienated a few of the progressives who, in the actual event, held their noses and voted for her, but maybe she would have picked up enough of these farmer votes to show a net gain. OTOH, they were strongly motivated to vote against her, for several reasons, despite their economic interests, so maybe that strategic shift by Clinton wouldn't have mattered.

[geek tragedy]

31. people who were pro-TPP (other than Obama) were generally cowed into silence

on the subject. Socially unacceptable to be in favor of it.

[karynnj]

35. Many people in Obama's administration made strong cases for ut

If I were not on a phone, I could give you at least 5 links for John Kerry alone.

[geek tragedy]

36. Sure, should have been more precise-Obama admin made the case

But no one else did.

Democrats in Congress ducked and covered.

[moda253]

39. John Kerry also wasn't politically vulnerable via election.

Big difference.

[karynnj]

43. No he wasn't, nor was Obama but that is not the point

Both made compelling cases for it.

[moda253]

57. That is exactly the point.

It was a lot easier for them to come out in favor of TPP because they didn't have a bunch of people with low information on the entirety of the situation campaigning/protesting against them. Those people at the convention were not informed on the full ramifications that pulling out of TPP entailed. You think they were going to listen if in the middle of the convention if any candidate in a race was to try to explain the situation? They just wanted to yell and hold up their signs. No better than herded trump supporters.

[SCVDem]

19. Now about all that corn

We were going to sell Mexico.

Dump screwed that up also!

[underpants]

29. Transportation/shipping is livid about it too

I heard from a friend who works in the industry that their PAC/chief lobbyist gave a presentation about TPP. This was a big deal n for them into shipping mainly within China but now it's gone. As the person giving the presentation said "We, the US, had to give up almost nothing. It's less than 1/2 a page in the TPP and what we got back was immense. "

[taught_me_patience]

44. Those who were pro TPP were slammed here on DU during the campaign

I'd guess that DU was 95% against the TPP at that time (here's an example: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10024531532)

St. Bernie and Warren were crusading against it 24/7.

[riversedge]

45. I recall WH and Pres Obama pushing so hard and working so hard for it.

Link to tweet

[Progressive dog]

47. Trump had a lot of help selling that isolationist stuff

Who knows, maybe he can just make Russia our sole ally and trading partner.

[Dopers_Greed]

50. The Dems need to start campaigning in these areas NOW!!!!!!!!

[workinclasszero]

51. Hey those soon to be bankrupt Trump voting farmers can always get a job in

Comrade Trump's imaginary coal mines!

[FairWinds]

52. The TPP was actually not about trade . .

it was about corporate governance . . them over us.

A Canadian youngster explains it in today's Toronto Star

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2017/08/06/nafta-needs-an-overhaul-to-improve-workers-rights-mcquaig.html

And my man Dean Baker . .

https://theintercept.com/2016/07/05/despite-what-media-says-tpp-isnt-about-free-trade-its-about-helping-corporations/

[kcdoug1]

53. NO sympathy for stupid people!

Their hatred of everything not white, Christian or "American" has come back to haunt them... Sweet dreams...

[MBS]

54. This is just what Pres. Obama and Sec. Kerry predicted would happen. n/t

[Freethinker65]

58. Maybe Trump will put his prized mega-developments in rural America .....nope.

Hillary offered education, small business loans, and job training (among other incentives) and they went with the urban and "better things in life" loving "billionaire" who would not be caught dead in a rural "dump" for longer than in takes to hold a photo-op televised rally.

[Xolodno]

59. Part of me is actually kind of happy.

This cost jobs to farmers and truckers mainly...essentially Dump voters.

But not being in the TPP will result in farmers not abusing the subsidized water, crops, government grazing lands, etc. they get. Plus, our farmers, truckers, etc. are in complete denial about global warming, this ironically, stops them from generating more green house gasses. European nations shipping crops via rail then boat is a smaller carbon footprint than a trucks long hauling from Iowa to San Pedro.

[StevieM]

61. I hope that the next president gets us back into TPP. Opposing it was a big mistake by both

Hillary and Bernie.

[JI7]

66. fucking trolls on DU equated support for TPP with bigotry