Election analyst flips 11 states toward Democrats due to Trump

[left-of-center2012]

Source: The Hill

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted 11 states on its Electoral College scorecard towards Democrats due to Donald Trump's status as the presumptive Republican nominee.

“This has been an exceedingly unpredictable year,” the analyst said. “Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.”

The shifts come as good news for Clinton and down-ballot Democrats, who are increasingly seeking to tie their GOP opponents to Trump.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278997-election-analyst-shifts-11-states-and-congressional

[Feeling the Bern]

1. My prediction - Trump will lose 35 states

[tclambert]

6. . . . and he won't be able to find the other 15 on a map.

[Fast Walker 52]

13. *rimshot*

[olddad56]

23. Remember the crooked elections of 2000 and 2004. Trump could be losing everywhere...

and still "win" the election.

[Reter]

24. 2 things

1) Those elections were legit close, and it has to be close to steal.

2) The neo-cons in charge of stealing prefer Hillary to Trump.

[houston16revival]

2. Don't Count Your Chickens

The MSM will make it competitive, it's good for ratings

He who slings the most mud wins

Trump may yet not be the nominee

We have a lot of work to do

Get involved in GOTV efforts, county party committees need help all over

[corkhead]

5. They are going to be in a contest to see who can insult the most of their own voters

turnout could end up being low making anything possible.

[stillwaiting]

17. We vote on hackable machines.

Anything is possible.

[corkhead]

18. Good point. Is Red team or Blue team going to be better at stealing it this time?

[0rganism]

22. the MSM's attitude can backfire on Trump

there are 3 things about election coverage that really appeal to the media's quest for $$$: horseraces, dynasties, and celebrities.

with the celebrity angle covered, the MSM could forgo its need to turn everything into a tightly contested horserace. if they're getting plenty of viewership already due to Trump's celebrity status and the Clintons' dynastic tendencies, they might just not bother with efforts to artificially create a close race. plus, excessively positive coverage of something as repulsive as Trump could hurt their reputation with the many many people who find him offensive -- it's an editorial tightrope i think they'd probably prefer not to walk.

no, i don't think Trump is going to find lots of friends in the MSM. they're going to cover him like they cover ebola or a tornado: powerful and dangerous. they will still use him for ratings, of course, but mostly fear-based. then after the election, they'll talk about what a great job the electorate did in dismissing Trump.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. These folks have in the past have

identified trends in Presidential Elections that tend to hold true.. This is our Election to lose folks,so get our butts to the polls. Whom ever ends up being the Dem Nominee. We haven't seen or heard anything yet when it comes to the really ugly and stupid that will come out of Trumps mouth. Going to be a really interesting Summer.. Have plenty of Cold Beverages on hand.

[DCBob]

4. This is great news... plus the likelihood Hillary's numbers will get better...

once the fake email "scandal" is put to rest and once the Berners come to grips with Hillary as the nominee.

Trump on the other hand may be stuck at this level. Those against him are really against him and likely not to change their minds.

[dembotoz]

7. i live in a very red area and you clearly underestimate the hartred for hrc

not that they would vote for trump it is that they will vote AGAINST hrc

hillary is the best possible gotv program the gop has

[DCBob]

8. Oh I know very well the hatred but that's only about 30% of the voting population.

Plus many of those are more isolated in certain states. She doesnt need to win every state.

[floppyboo]

11. no she doesn't and won't - but it would help if she had more padding in swing states

Polls taken from most recent and averages back a few months. These are GE polls (ie, not just Dems)

from RealClearPolitics.

state Sanders Trump spread (Hillary spread)

National 56 40 16 (6)
Florida 50 42 8* (5)
New York 56.7 33.5 23.2 (21)
Penn 51.3 38 13.3 (8)
Ohio 46.3 42 4.3 (3)
Michigan 55 36 19* (10)
NCarolina 46 43 3* (2)
Virginia 49 36 13* (10)
NewHamp 58 31 27* (8)
WI 52 33 19* (11)
Iowa 49 40 9 (7)

*took the most recent instead of average, where averages do not reflect the last 3 months

[floppyboo]

12. Sorry if the Bernie math hurts nt

[DCBob]

14. Four things..

1) If the election were today Hillary would win easily against Trump.
2) Hillary's numbers will likely improve as the campaign heats up as I stated earlier.
3) Bernie GE numbers are misleading as he hasnt yet been the focus of any GOP attacks.
4) Bernie wont be the nominee.

[northoftheborder]

16. for what it's worth---

I live in a suburban dark red small town --- overheard several presumed Repubs in post office talking about how they would not vote for Trump---

[LiberalFighter]

19. You might live in a very red area but you have 65,556 sq miles in the state.

And there are only a few hard red pockets. There are more hard blue counties than red. And the rest could change a little.

Over half of your counties have less than 50 people per square mile. Trump now puts your state back into Lean Democratic.

[Nirgendwo]

9. Just had to get in a dig at Sanders supporters, huh?

Now I feel all warm and fuzzy about Hillary--NOT.

[DCBob]

10. Where's the dig??

Some of you Bernie folks are way too sensitive.

[EL34x4]

20. "Trump on the other hand may be stuck at this level"

They've been saying this about Trump since last July.

Lots of hubris around this place. Personally, I think it might be a good idea to treat Donald Trump as a formidable candidate.

[DCBob]

21. What happens in primaries is not a good indicator of what will happen in the general.

Imo.

[Equinox Moon]

15. So good for our country to be lead by Dems (ideally progressives) for a long while

We have gotten so out of balance because of the Koch-tea party-libertarian outrageous extremists. We need 8 years of Dem majority from the top down and the bottom up.

Let's bring back democracy and take steps toward healing this planet.