Hillary Clinton Begins The General Election Leading Trump In Every Swing State

[Cali_Democrat]

Source: Politicus/HuffPo

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton begins the 2016 general election campaign against Donald Trump with leads in every 2016 swing state.

HuffPost Pollster calculations show Clinton with a lead in every state that could swing the 2016 election:



Clinton leads Trump in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and New York. Obviously, these poll numbers will change, but the early data demonstrates that Hillary Clinton has an immense amount of wiggle room and multiple paths to the presidency.

Some of the states listed are not swing states. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are blue states. The idea that Trump will be able to swing them with a wave of working class white voters is more of media fantasy/Republican desperate hope.

Read more: http://www.politicususa.com/2016/05/05/hillary-clinton-begins-general-election-leading-trump-swing-state.html

[postulater]

1. What is the spread for Bernie versus Trump?

[snooper2]

2. somewhere in GD-P I think

[1StrongBlackMan]

27. Drop ... The ... Mic!

[floppyboo]

30. Sanders v Trump

state Sanders Trump spread (Hillary spread)

National 56 40 16 (6)
Florida 50 42 8* (5)
New York 56.7 33.5 23.2 (21)
Penn 51.3 38 13.3 (8)
Ohio 46.3 42 4.3 (3)
Michigan 55 36 19* (10)
NCarolina 46 43 3* (2)
Virginia 49 36 13* (10)
NewHamp 58 31 27* (8)
WI 52 33 19* (11)
Iowa 49 40 9 (7)

*took the most recent instead of average, where averages do not reflect the last 3 months

[Baobab]

37. She has a strong lead in dishonesty

given that the GE has not begun yet!

[postulater]

41. Logic would dictate that Sanders would be the nominee.

The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Live long and Bern.

[hack89]

64. The votes of the many out weigh the whines of a few nt

[Sherman A1]

3. My question as well,

It's not just quiet General Election time yet, there are a few more primaries and that whole convention thing yet to occur.

[floppyboo]

31. just posted above

[snooper2]

62. Yep, I'm really looking forward to the loud General Election time

[Plucketeer]

5. The poster's hoping you don't ask nt

[0rganism]

4. OH, FL, and PA look too close for comfort

NC is probably a loss in November, but that state's gone batshit crazy lately anyway
VA looks safe at the moment

and what's up with the national numbers? she was leading by 13 a few days ago, hope that's just Trump's "dead cat bounce" (crappy metaphor right there -- i'm kinda creeped out by whoever invented it) from locking up the nomination; i'm cautiously optimistic that barring a major terrorist attack in the fall, this is a high-water mark for Trump.

[MisterP]

9. yeah, Clinton has a knack for pulling a loss from a 46-41 lead

[0rganism]

22. in fairness, "Defeat from the jaws of Victory" is the DNC mission statement

this isn't one of Hillary's unique talents

[lancer78]

45. If HRC Wins

The states she is +8 or better in will give her 279 EV.

[Beacool]

6. Let's hope that the more people see of this buffoon, the more they get sick of him.

I can't even think of anyone more unfit for office. The funny part is that he keeps saying that he looks like a president.

[houston16revival]

8. Someone should

send out the men in white suits

[Saviolo]

13. I can.

I think Ted Cruz is far more unfit than Trump.

Yes, Trump is a dumpster fire, but Cruz has far too much god in his crazy to be in charge of things. Of the final three candidates on that side, there were no good choices, but Cruz was, to me, the worst of a bad lot.

[0rganism]

18. aiee! fish monster alert!

[Saviolo]

20. I didn't know

I didn't know that a Blobfish was the Zodiac Killer.

Huh, learn something every day.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

42. Don't insult the fish

[Beacool]

25. I think that Trump is less fit because, like Hillary said, he's a loose cannon.

You would never know where Trump stood on an issue and that unpredictability would be a disaster for our domestic and foreign policies. Cruz we already know that he would be nasty, mean and an a-hole.

I was laughing out loud last night when I heard some of the comments made about Cruz by fellow Republicans. I knew about Boehner calling him "Lucifer", but I hadn't heard what Lindsey Graham had said about him.

"If you killed Ted Cruz on the floor of the Senate, and the trial was in the Senate, nobody would convict you,"

[houston16revival]

7. WI NC PA

Those are the proof in the pudding

Let's hope HRC puts all email doubts to bed

[Cali_Democrat]

10. Proof in the pudding? nt

[LS_Editor]

11. It's May 5th.

Other than that, swell news...

[Old Codger]

12. Holy shit

I guess I must have slept through the final announcement where Bernie gave up and she was declared the nominee?

[snort]

14. She isn't the nominee.

[newthinking]

16. Yes. Last I looked we are not yet in the "General Election".

But hey.. facts don't seem to be important in modern "reporting" when there is a narrative on.

[LannyDeVaney]

17. Check my sig for a projected electoral map ...

I truly believe it will not be close, and based on the reactions the last couple of days, so do most Republicans.

I'm really only seeing/hearing concern from one group.

[Gore1FL]

23. Whose projection is that?

[LannyDeVaney]

43. From the top of the link ...

Most recent projection for the 2016 election from Larry Sabato and the team at University of Virginia Center for Politics.

[Gore1FL]

44. Thanks! I totally missed that entire block of text!

oops!

[LenaBaby61]

19. I get nervous when I see projections like this...

Last edited Thu May 5, 2016, 09:57 PM - Edit history (1)

Because the nomination hasn't been secured, and even if it were there have been no debates between the front runners of each party, things aren't settled enough for me. Nothing against those who are looking ahead as they have that right for sure, but for me it's a bit early on as Bernie Sanders is still in a contest with Hillary Clinton--the primaries are still going on. Things look very secure in her winning the Dem nomination, but we still have primaries to complete.

We'll see though.

[TIME TO PANIC]

21. Damn! It's the end of July already!

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. It's only a snapshot of feelings today, but I think it's doable, especially with POTUS, FLOTUS &....

V-POTUS all out on the campaign trail.

[1StrongBlackMan]

29. But that can't/won't happen until ...

you know ... the unspeakable, finally, happens.

[Tarheel_Dem]

34. Sadly, I know. I can't blame the folks I named for not wanting to appear biased, but once.....

acceptance sets in, maybe we can get this show on the road. Trump has already started, and he's using BS' attack lines against the presumptive nominee.

[1StrongBlackMan]

38. I know ...

It's sickening to hear trump at 4:30a.m. (AZ Time) and hear the exact same line on DU at 4:35a.m.

[Tarheel_Dem]

39. Trump definitely has a presence here at DU, and I'll leave it at that. But it is "sickening". nt

[1StrongBlackMan]

40. No ... It's just your imagination ...

just like racism.

[Cosmic Kitten]

26. Hillary won't swing Pennsylvania

It's delusional to think western PA
will vote Hillary.

That leaves basically Philly and the burbs.

PA is HEAVY with hunters and gun rights people.
Hillary makes one peep about gun control
and it's game over.

If Hillary could get 50% of the east she's still
going to be woefully short of votes.

PA will go Red in the GE.

[Downtown Hound]

33. Pennsylvania hasn't gone red since 1988, dream on.

Rural areas rarely trump urban ones in population size, especially when the city is as large as Philadelphia. I've been on DU since 2004 and every election I see somebody make the same prediction. It didn't happen then and it's not going to happen now.

[Tarheel_Dem]

35. Dream on. Obama's been talking about gun control for his entire presidency, and won PA twice.

[Gore1FL]

46. I think if anything, more "red" states will be in play no matter the nominee.

I prefer Sanders to be sure. I don't think Hillary will crash and burn, however--at least not based on current data.

[yellowcanine]

65. Meh. Pittsburgh (Allegheny County) regularly goes Democratic.

That is Western PA and it is where most of the votes in Western PA are located.
And Democrats get a lot more than 50% in Philly and the burbs.

Allegheny
100.0% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 56.6% 348,151
M. Romney GOP 42.2% 259,304

Philadelphia
98.6% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 85.2% 557,024
M. Romney GOP 14.1% 91,840

Montgomery
100.0% Reporting
B. Obama (i) Dem 56.6% 227,561
M. Romney GOP 42.3% 169,903

[SusanLarson]

28. Premature

She's not the nominee. She only has 1,683 delegates

[Tarheel_Dem]

36. According to 538, she has 1,701 pledged delegates, well ahead of her projected target. And since...

when don't we count Supers? Is this the new Bernie math? She already has +500 supers. She's 3 million ahead in the popular vote, so I don't think it's premature at all. It's about math, and your math doesn't get BS the nomination.

If you guys have a problem with Supers, you should hash it out with BS' top very wealthy campaign advisor, who is the architect of the Super delegate system.

[lancer78]

47. We don't count Supers

because they haven't cast their votes yet.

[Tarheel_Dem]

51. Nobody's switching to the guy who's losing by millions of votes. Math. Reality bites. n/t

[lancer78]

54. Am I asking anyone to?

But they should not be counted until the convention when they actually cast their votes. The supers gave a skewed vision of the state of the race. It is closer then it looks. Fortunately for Clinton, with the support of the supers, it appeared that she was way ahead from the beginning, causing pragmatic Dem voters to vote for her (Especially African American voters).

[Tarheel_Dem]

57. It's not close at all. She has a nearly 300 pledged delegate advantage. At this point, in 2008...

Barack Obama was only 60 delegates ahead of her. There aren't enough contests left for BS to make up that ground. Again....it's math. As long as this race continues, because there are no winner take all states, she continues to add delegates. She'll reach 2026 (a majority) before he does. At this stage of the game, simply winning by a few points doesn't close the gap for BS. He needs +30 pt blowouts, in delegate rich primaries, not caucuses.

[lancer78]

58. Yes, at this point

But it is interesting that since March 15th, Sanders has won more delegates than HRC. I am saying that maybe if the supers had not pledged their support for Clinton or every major news outlet had not counted them in the beginning, the optics of the race in the first 45 days of primaries would have been different, and Sanders might have been ahead at this point. Especially given that African American voters tend to be pragmatic (They did not support PBO until he won Iowa and nearly won New Hampshire).

[Tarheel_Dem]

59. Nope. It wouldn't be any different. The supers threw their support behind the "Democrat", and so..

did AA voters. I know you guys have, unsuccessfully, tried to claim that the early states "distorted reality". I remember 2008 very well. After it was clear that Obama was headed for the nomination, Hillary was racking up wins in the remaining states. It didn't make a difference then, and won't this time. The trajectory of this race has been clear for quite some time. I know Jeff Weaver has sent out a set of talking points about some convoluted "path to victory", but at this point, it's just to keep you guys on the hook. $$$$$$$$$.

[lancer78]

60. I have not donated any money

and both HRC and Sanders are both losers in my book. Sanders for being so ignorant and promising people ponies that he won't be able to deliver, and HRC for almost losing to two "unknowns" in a row. I am more interested in the statistics then anything else. Don't worry before you hide my post, I have ALWAYS voted for the Democratic nominee in the GE.

[Tarheel_Dem]

61. A 3,000,000 popular vote advantage. 300 pledged delegate advantage. 500 SD avantage, and....

she's "almost losing"?

Good night. Sleep tight. And don't let reality bite.

[Gore1FL]

48. Supers don't count until the convention.

Until then they are called endorsements.

Helpful hint: You should get rid of the grave dancing gif. Celebrating long-time DUers getting banned gets old quickly. We are several months past the event in question.

[Tarheel_Dem]

50. Thanks for the "helpful" advice, but I'll pass.

[Gore1FL]

52. It is absolutely your choice to grave dance for months.

It speaks poorly of your decisions making skills, but please proceed!

[Tarheel_Dem]

56. Again....thanks.

[Gore1FL]

63. You are quite welcome

I just wish you'd take my advice and help make DU suck a little less. (Because grave-dancing makes DU suck.)

[Cali_Democrat]

53. No delegates count until the convention. nt

[pangaia]

32. That's about is stunning as saying the US has a stronger military than Belize.

[sofa king]

49. This is going to be excruciating.

I'm saying this out loud, both for myself and a lot of you. American Presidential elections are bullshit. Total bullshit.

There is a particular cycle that runaway elections go through; I can give you three recent examples: Dole v Clinton ('96), McCain v Obama ('08), Romney v Obama ('12).

All three of these elections were blowouts, pretty much from beginning to end, although you can fairly say that McCain v Obama wasn't a blowout until they picked Palin as the running mate. In each case the Republican candidate was weak and fatally flawed, yet the Republican enjoyed the majority of the coverage--usually because they were saying stupid things.

All three of these elections went through a totally fucking infuriating cycle in which the press "pushed" the eventual loser closer, and closer, and closer to the leader and pretended it was a much closer race than it really was. All three had a fake-ass "surge" in August which was really just pollsters and news organizations trying to make the race interesting in the political black hole that is August.

Two out of the three races then "walked back" the polls in October, as pollsters began trying to establish a good call so that they could get hired in the next cycle. (It's pretty damned scary that some polls did not walk back Obama-Romney, and tried VERY hard to keep it within the margin of error. If they could have, the GOP would have tried to steal it like they did in '04.)

In the end, all three were solid victories. And, also infuriatingly, in the aftermath of all three were a series of sheepish articles in which political and journalist insiders confessed that they knew it was a blowout months in advance.

And this is where we are. We know this is a blowout, months in advance. If we all do our duty, check our registrations right now, and make sure not to let shitty employers and governments prevent us, we'll crush this election.

Soon, my anxiety won't let me believe my own words. But here it is, the whole story, long in advance: The Press and the Republican Party will make a good show of it because a close race sells subscriptions and protects the gerrymandered House. But even with a third party candidate in it--and I expect one any day now--they're still going to get their asses kicked.

[riversedge]

55. Great news Thanks.

[libodem]

66. Kick