Poll: Trump trails Clinton in head-to-head matchup

[riversedge]

Source: Politico



By Nolan D. McCaskill

05/04/16 06:20 AM EDT

Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by a 13-point margin, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday, a day after the Republican presidential front-runner won Indiana decisively and became the presumptive GOP nominee following Ted Cruz’s exit from the race.

Clinton leads Trump in the hypothetical head-to-head matchup, 54 percent to 41 percent, her largest advantage over Trump since July.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-222780#ixzz47gWOLtnR
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Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-222780

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Tweet:

Poll: Trump trails @HillaryClinton in head-to-head matchup http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/poll-trump-hillary-clinton-222780 … #ImwithHer PAST TIME FOR DEMS TO UNITE FOR HILLARY








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Dan Diamond
?@ddiamond

Total votes so far

Clinton ———— 12.4 million
Trump ———- 10.6 mill
Bernie ——— 9.3 mill
Cruz ——- 7.3 mill
Kasich — 3.8 mill
Rubio — 3.5 mill

[pnwmom]

1. And it's NOT because no one knows who Trump is yet, or what he stands for!

[rpannier]

7. Trump? Who is this Trump of which you speak?

Never heard of him

Can't believe that there's anyone he could beat (other than Republicans)

I still say my cat would destroy him in the GE and my cat is not a people cat
Make a great debate though
Trump says something stupid and gets a face full of claws

[Turin_C3PO]

67. Right.

It's because they DO know him and what he stands for, which is fascist buffoonery.

[stonecutter357]

2. I'm with Her!

[Feathery Scout]

3. Good!

Trump should have never have gotten THIS CLOSE to the White House.

Even HE didn't expect to win the nomination. Just wanted some publicity....

[riversedge]

4. YOU GO GAL. Congrats to HILLARY and her TEAM

[fred v]

5. Clinton 378, Trump 160

And I'm being generous to the Donald!

[rpannier]

9. I have him winning about 18 states

Traditional Republicans strongholds: Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee (15)
Then from this group I think he pulls another 3: Arizona, Alaska, Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Montana

And before someone says he won't win Texas, I remind everyone that their governor is crazier than Trump is

[bbrady42]

29. Utah *hates* him

There's a good chance that it goes blue this year.

[elljay]

37. The Industrial North

is a definite possibility for Trump. States like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin etc might be in play because hey have large populations of working class white people who have seen their jobs go abroad. If there is not a large turnout of minorities and young people, groups that traditionally underperform in elections, Hillary could have problems.

[lark]

59. Trump supports the same treaties she does, doesn't he?

How does that give him an advantage? Trump said American workers should be paid like the Chinese, this will not endear him to working folks of any color when it's made known. Trump has cut jobs to make himself richer 4 different times via bankruptcy, Clinton's husband was president over the largest job creation in history. Advantage Clinton.

[elljay]

64. No he doesnt

He has very publicly railed against the international trade agreements that Hillary supported. Of course he is a hypocrite but his supporters either do not care or refuse to believe it. This is not about fact, it is about image and Trump is projecting the image, to a very specific group, that their jobs have been sent abroad or given to "illegals" and this message is very obviously being heard. Haven't you heard his comments about Mexico and China? Fondness for Bill Clinton is not at all universal as his job creation turned out to be the bubble that broke immediately after he left office. He also pushed for NAFTA and corporate deregulation. The Republicans still loathe anything related to Clinton, and Independents plus many Democrats have revisited their positive feelings, hence the popularity of Bernie Sanders. This election will be nasty, dirty, insulting and have very little to do with actual fact. I am not looking forward to it.

https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign,_2016#Economic_and_fiscal

[lark]

65. I don't believe him one bit. He'll gladly take the $$ and change his tune.

I agree this will be the worst election ever with the hate ramped up astronomically. Living in FL, it's going to be all hate ads all the time on both radio and TV. Sucks to be here during election season. I tend to read a lot and turn on TV as little as possible and switch channels on the radio the 2nd I hear some political BS ad starting.

[elljay]

66. Oh, Absolutely

I tend to be skeptical about politicians in general, because of the nature of the profession except when I see a long, consistent track record like Bernie's. Trump is definitely not to be believed about anything. However, his supporters just cannot/ will not believe that.

I travel to Florida frequently so know what you will be going through. This will be a great time to catch up on all the books and movies you never had time for!

[lark]

69. I'm stockpiling books on my Kindle.

Need to have a large supply ready.

[Democat]

6. Great

Hopefully either Democratic candidate will beat Trump.

[7962]

8. Coming in under the headline: "No shit".

[rpannier]

10. Riversdedge, I hate to kind of be a downer on the thread

But I will disappoint a bit

17.9 million people voted for either Cruz or Trump
That's depressing

[jtuck004]

13. And since Cruz dropped out, and if only half move over, that's about 14+ mill for the real

estate swindler.

[lark]

60. Even 1 vote for either of those clowns is too many, however don't despair.

21.7 million people have voted for Bernie or Hillary - still beats the assholes.

[Thinkingabout]

11. Every indication is the very well vetted Hillary can beat Trump.

[pandr32]

30. She will!

He is going to look like the idiot he is in those debates and it will be scary!
Hillary will polish the floor with him.

[Nedsdag]

12. Good! One less person to vote for.

I'm voting down ticket since I am in a safe blue state.

My congressman is a shoe-in and Clinton intimate so it works both ways.

[Kingofalldems]

14. But no!!! Yesterday it was Trump beating Clinton.

Rasmussen said!

[retrowire]

16. oh CNN's not biased or run by Hillary's contributors AT ALL.

Lol. They are.

[Cryptoad]

17. What scares the Hades out of me is,,,,,

there are 10 million + Americans who voted for Trump.

[Kingofalldems]

18. Kicked, rec'd and tweeted.

[TheSarcastinator]

19. and how did the polls work out for Her Majesty in WI and IN?

Motivated Reasoning: We Has It.

[Kingofalldems]

21. So I gather you favor Trump over Clinton?

[TheSarcastinator]

25. What an insightful response!

There's no fooling you!

Motivated reasoning: we has it. Keep thinking Hillary is inevitable and Trump cannot win: I'm sure it will work out just they way you plan.

[truebrit71]

36. Right? Logic fail 101

Don't like Hillary therefore you must be for Trump...

[Chico Man]

38. At this point in time

It would be miraculous for Bernie to win.

And here you are stating Clinton and Trump are cut from the same cloth.

Does Clinton want to build a wall? Does she say Mexicans are rapists? Or are those the only differences (other than the fact she is a woman?)

Whining isn't going to do much. Bernie was too little too late.

[The Second Stone]

57. The Sanderistnas are in their own fevered fantasy world

reinventing math.

[dbackjon]

22. Are you saying Sanders committed election fraud in those states ?

[pnwmom]

23. The last poll in IN was within the margin of error, which meant that it was close

enough for either to win. And he did by 5 points. The last poll only gave her 49.5%, and she ended up with 47%. The undecideds made the difference. So the poll worked out fine -- if you understand what margin of error means.

Michigan was way off, but it was the only one like that. Overall the pollsters have done very well.

[TheSarcastinator]

26. the last poll.....wow, talk about cherry picking

Camp Weathervane has been crowing in GD for WEEKS predicting a Hillary shutout in IN and when you fall on your face the only responses of which are capable consists of cognitive dissonance, motivated reasoning and weak excuses.

Keep it up: I'm sure it will all work out exactly as you planned. I mean, when was the last time Hillary's (and her supporters) hubris come back to bite her in the ass?

[pnwmom]

45. One of the factors that pollsters understand (if not people like you) is that, other things being

equal, the closer a poll is to the election, the greater the accuracy. This is because people's opinions can and often do change over time. So it is not cherrypicking to give more weight to a poll that is the most recent. It's standard procedure.

And pollsters also understand, unlike you, apparently, that the "undecideds" often become "decideds." And that is what is likely to have happened in this case. The number of Hillary voters was very close to what had been predicted but more of the "undecideds" became Bernie voters.

[Darb]

49. Low brow bullshit you got there.

Try not to cut off your whole face while chopping off that nose.

[wildeyed]

20. Great news!!

Let's DO this thing!

[McKim]

24. This is the Third Story on This Poll on DU this Morning

My, my, this is the third story on this poll on DU. I guess it covers the fact of Sander's win in Indiana and does not connect the dots
that Sanders has won in Rhode Island and Indiana where Independents can vote in the primary. The fact is that Sanders beats Trump over Clinton if Independents vote.

[pnwmom]

46. Hillary WON all but a handful of open primaries, including this one. n/t

[Darb]

50. Uber-conservative independents,

trying to ratfuck Hillary I'd say.

[Plucketeer]

27. Ahem...

SAME POLL....

"If Bernie Sanders were
the Democratic Party's candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican
Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for ?"
--


Sanders - 56% Trump - 40%

[Chico Man]

39. I get it

I also know Bernie has no clear path to the nomination, and these numbers are not going to motivate voters in a way that is going to make Bernie's nomination realistic at all. So where do we go from here? Bernie or bust? Tear down Hillary and the party? If you want to do that, please do it somewhere other than Democratic Underground. It's not welcome here.

[Plucketeer]

58. " I also know Bernie has no clear path to the nomination"

You cling to your hopes - I'll cling to mine. Look around the globe. In spite of the "We're #1!" baloney, we're still just another nation. A nation so FULL of itself that it's certain that real change is only for those other, lesser places. Kinda like the orchestral playing on ->

[pnwmom]

47. So? The difference between Hillary and Bernie is within the margin of error. n/t

[bigdarryl]

28. As Allan Lichtman keeps reminding people head to head matchups

Don't mean jack shit it's a snap shot poll

[d_legendary1]

31. Certainly Not News

These are the same people who had Sanders losing Indiana by double digits.

[Liberal_in_LA]

32. kick

[B2G]

33. R - 25.2 mil, D - 21.7 mil

That's a little scary.

[houston16revival]

34. HRC

is going to have to be all over the political spectrum with issues and voting blocs

because that is what Trump will do

I think Democrats have an edge in that tactic, having delivered on it in 2008 and 2012

Go Dems! Whoever we choose, whoever our nominee, let's get behind and push!

NO TRUMP!

[tabasco]

35. Too bad they're in a dead heat in swing states like Ohio and North Carolina.

Hillary's campaigning will only reduce her popularity.

A Trump presidency is an all too real probability.

[AgerolanAmerican]

42. If Clinton is nominated, a Trump Presidency is a given

Clinton started against Sanders with what, a 60-point lead? More? And now she's struggling to close the deal, in circumstances that are all but ideal for her.

Trump has the trivially easy task of painting her as the embodiment of all the cronyism, self-dealing, and corruption in DC. Mondale's run will look like halcyon days by the time he's done with her.

If wiser heads in the party aren't going to prevail here, our last hope is for the FBI to hurry up and issue the inevitable recommendation to indict her.

In hindsight a lot of people will be asking WTF people were thinking nominating a candidate under FBI investigation for public corruption. All the signs are there warning us how bad she's going to be.

[Chico Man]

44. That's absurd

It is obvious you are hell bent on making your prediction a reality by posting such rubbish on a site dedicated to helping the Democratic Party.

[AgerolanAmerican]

52. what is absurd

is that the Democratic Party is on the verge of nominating a career criminal crony capitalist war hawk under FBI investigation who has never won a competitive election and whose selection obliterates any hope of party unity.

In hindsight this will look like the stupidest major party nomination ever.

[Chico Man]

54. Lies

The reason why you believe it would be the stupidest major party nomination ever is that you believe lies that are being fed to you by the very media you denounce, and then you come here and repeat it.

I get it, you hate Hillary. Take it someplace else.

[leftofcool]

51. This is Democratic Underground

Trump Humping is not allowed. You should self delete this post and please read the TOS.

[AgerolanAmerican]

53. it's called "analysis"

a sober look at the facts of the situation

Trump came from nowhere to best the 16 top candidates the GOP had to offer, many of them very experienced at the highest levels of politics - governors, senators, and so on.

He doesn't come with the social crusader handicap that almost all other Republicans do, so the usual general election formula is not dependable. IMO he is the strongest candidate the GOP has offered since Reagan.

And against that, we are sending one of the weakest possible candidates, someone who is just barely squeaking by a guy who wasn't even a member of the party until recently, someone who consistently drops double-digit leads in a week's time or less.

People who can't see this trainwreck coming are living in a bubble.

[Chico Man]

55. You are being fed right wing propaganda

And you apparently really enjoy the flavor.

Please, choose a different landing spot for your subsequent vomit.

[Kingofalldems]

56. Who the hell do you think you are kidding?

You are a Trump fan. Your post reveals that fact.

[ffr]

40. I'm for American progress. I'm with HRC.

The dream outcome would be HRC in the White House and Bernie Sanders putting forth bills and setting up rules committees. Together, they'll do great things for all of us.

Just need to sweep out as many GOP/Teabag party candidates as possible. And that takes all of us voting.

[apnu]

41. Interesting favorablility ratings from the article.

Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability among Americans. Clinton’s net favorability is just minus-1 percent (48 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable), while Trump’s is minus-18 percent (39 percent favorable, 57 percent unfavorable).

[AgerolanAmerican]

43. indicates to me the poll is wrong

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Consensus estimates are Clinton net favorability @ -12... with the unfavorables rising fast.

If this poll is showing a -1 net favorability that indicates it's running 10 points in her favor vs. reality.

[SheenaR]

48. Per every Clinton supporter

GE matchup polls are meaningless... So not sure why this is news

[Jean Genie]

61. you wish

Don't count your chickens, dear Hillary-ites. Many's the democrat who will not vote for her under any circumstances. Me included.

[Chico Man]

63. Just about time to exit stage left, then.

This is not the place for Hillary haters.

[LiberalLovinLug]

62. The MSM haven't even started yet

Its their unwritten but sworn duty (not to the viewers but to their owners, shareholders and ad clients) to even things out. To create a horse race.

And for organizations like Faux News, and their audience, they don't even have to use facts. And the other networks will do their best to insinuate and use terms like "some people say....." to get around it. I predict those numbers will get closer and closer until there is a virtual tie going into November. They are very good at their "job".

Bernie would have made that job so much harder. He doesn't come in with an army of haters, even though a lot of Hillary hate is totally manufactured. He doesn't have the type of scandal material to draw from, whether blown out of proportion or not, that Hillary has. Or a spouse that can also be used as fodder. And in the anti-establishment rebelling zeitgeist we are living in, she is on the wrong side.

I have said from the first day Trump announced. People here underestimate his chances. There are a lot of voters a part of the idiocracy, just frankly stupid. And will vote for the guy who has that TV show, and is a successful billionaire, and is not afraid to be non-PC, and is a fighter who will even fight dirty if he has to (do anything to win, just like he'll do with the country!). And another demographic just will simply not vote for another Clinton, whether their bias is fostered by actual facts is not the point. Both from the left and from the right.

And when the MSM gets through with her, she may very well be trailing going into November.

[ananda]

68. I like these odds.

I just hope Clinton doesn't screw it up.

[EndElectoral]

70. So using your figs 21.7M Votes for Dems, and 25.2M for Republicans.