Early results: No vote takes early lead

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Breaking: almost 10% of votes have been counted so far, and no has a solid lead.



Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/05/greeces-eurozone-future-in-the-balance-as-referendum-gets-under-way--eu-euro-bailout-live#block-55996762e4b032a39a3ba8e3

[Comrade Grumpy]

1. The Greek people align with Tsipras and reject EU-imposed austerity. Now what?

I suppose it's back to the negotiating table, with Greece's hand strenghtened.

Good luck, Greeks. I'm glad you voted this way. I hope it doesn't hurt too much.

[Fred Sanders]

2. Tsipras wants a "No" vote to strengthen his hand, but not leave the Euro. He suggested he would resign otherwise.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33319917

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has urged a no vote but insists he wants Greece to stay in the euro.

[jeff47]

4. A "Nai" means "Do whatever the EU/IMF demands". The opposite of what he wants.

As for "stay in the Euro", you don't have to be in the EU to use the Euro. In fact, Bulgaria is doing extremely well with this arrangement.

[jeff47]

3. They're gonna get hurt either way.

Might as well pick the way that prevents them from being hurt in the future.

[Cryptoad]

7. Right they are screwed either way

the EU Oligarchs have stolen their wealth. JUst a matter of which Group of Oligarchs !

[daleanime]

39. +1

[Fred Sanders]

5. Edit: 20% in: Nai 40%, Oxi 60. Might be all over....

Last edited Sun Jul 5, 2015, 02:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Twenty percent of the votes have now been counted, and the no side is holding onto a solid lead -- with over 60%, against less than 40% for the yes side.

Greeks have rejected creditor terms that Tsipras walked away from, agreeing with the Greek government positions.

[Depaysement]

8. Tsipras wants Oxi

Oxi means no deal. Nai is yes for the Troika deal that was on the table, but has since been withdrawn by then Troika.

[brooklynite]

10. "Nai" does not mean "No"!!!

"Nai" means "Yes" to the ECB deal. "Oxi" means "No". The Government has called for an "Oxi" vote

‘OXI’ and ‘NAI’: the two key words for the Greek referendum

These are the two words upon which Greece’s future path in the euro zone hinge tomorrow, when the surprise referendum called by prime minister Alexis Tsipras takes place. Voters will be asked if they reject – unusually, the No box has the top position on the ballot paper – or accept a proposal from the country’s lenders that the lenders say is no longer on the table.

Despite its inherently negative meaning, OXI for many Greeks is a word symbolising national pride and defiance. Indeed, no sooner they are taught to write it in school, they learn about its historical significance as they march in formation behind Greek flags at the annual school parades on October 28th commemorating OXI Day.

That recalls the rejection in 1940 by the Greek dictator Gen Metaxas of an Italian ultimatum for its troops to be allowed to pass through Greece, leading to the outbreak of a war in which the Greeks gave the Italians a heroic hammering only to be subjected to a brutal three-year occupation by the Germans, Bulgarians and Italians.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/oxi-and-nai-the-two-key-words-for-the-greek-referendum-1.2272950

[Fred Sanders]

14. I will let others speak about this:

"Greeks voted overwhelmingly "No" on Sunday in a historic bailout referendum, partial results showed, defying warnings from across Europe that rejecting new austerity terms for fresh financial aid would set their country on a path out of the euro.

With nearly a fifth of the votes counted, official figures showed 60.4 percent of Greeks on course to reject a bailout offer from creditors that was the official issue of the ballot. The figures showed the Yes vote drew 40.1 percent. An official projection of the final result is expected at 1800 GMT (1400 EDT).

Officials from the Greek government, which had argued that a 'No' vote would strengthen its hand to secure a better deal from international creditors after months of wrangling, immediately said they would try to restart talks with European partners."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0P40EO20150705

[RufusTFirefly]

11. You are mistaken. Tsipras definitely wants OXI. n/t

[Depaysement]

17. No you are wrong

Oxi is a no vote. Nai is a yes vote.

[Fred Sanders]

21. Apologies. I am wrong about the wording. Rejecting the creditor bailout is what the government wanted.

[Depaysement]

23. No need to apologize

It's an easy and understandable error to make.

[Warpy]

27. Especially with the false equivalents in Greek

I studied it briefly in high school and retained enough of it that I didn't have to look up medical terminology for correct spelling in nursing school many years later.

OXI = NO even though it resembles "OK."

NAI = YES even though it resembles "nah."

I will be a little surprised if OXI wins, only because people under extreme stress still prefer the devil they know to the unknown. Either will be a disaster in the short term. However, joining the Eurozone has been a complete disaster, destroying their agriculture and manufacturing with cheap imports.

[libdem4life]

40. Seems we could use "yes" and "no" for English consumption.

[Warpy]

43. Then the pictures out of Greece wouldn't make any sense

Best to learn a factoid about another language, you never know when it'll come in handy.

[libdem4life]

48. Well, someone is always explaining the pictures anyway...could be in the title of the post, etc.

But I see your point.

[turbinetree]

6. I think there should be indictments against lets say................

http://www.alternet.org/story/153795/vampire_hedge_funds_are_sucking_greece_dry

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/24/will-goldman-prove-greed-is-god

[LiberalArkie]

13. You have it right. Think 2008 all over again. Good ole credit default swaps.

And guess who will have to bail out the Too Big To Fail banks all over again.

[Jeff Murdoch]

12. 35% counted, 61% no

[Spitfire of ATJ]

15. This is a faceoff between the banks and the public that I hope to see repeated.

[brooklynite]

16. It's likely that several banks will collapse because of lack of funds...

...Are you saying that only millionaires have money in them?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. This vote is all about the people over the almighty Euro.

[brooklynite]

22. And if some people lose their life savings and pensions? Well it's all for the greater good...

[Spitfire of ATJ]

24. LOL! This is all about KEEPING their pensions.

[brooklynite]

25. ...with what money?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

26. They could go back to the drachma but probably won't have to....

The government could take this mandate to declare it's debts null and void.

What's Merkel gonna do? Declare war on behalf of the banks?

[brooklynite]

28. If Greece defaults then nobody will extend it credit

first question: how will it pay to have Drachmas printed?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

31. It's the way it was done prior to 2002.

[jeff47]

49. Uh, nobody will extend it credit already.

"Put a blanket on that decapitated man! He might get cold!"

[geek tragedy]

29. That would guarantee Greece leaving the Euro.

No Euros are going into Greece. They won't be able to keep their economy functioning with a currency that isn't circulated.

They'd have to go on the drachma.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

33. That's the fear from the 1%. Others might go off the Euro too.

[geek tragedy]

37. Greece's government promised the people

Greece wouldn't leave the Euro.
Problem is he doesn't have the ability to deliver on that promise.

[Fred Sanders]

41. That much is true. That is now in the EU's and creditors court...Drachma or Euro?

Cut off the Euro currency and write off hundreds of billions, hello Drachma....or give Greece more time to pay, with Euros?

60% of Greeks just agreed to accept the Drachma as currency if it means having to abandon the Euro...but then the nation is debt-free.

That is some good backup for Tsipris and the Greek government at the negotiating table.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

45. He can with a mandate from the masses....

This debt was manufactured. Despite the propaganda it wasn't the fault of the people and they shouldn't have to suffer for it. This is what eventually happens when bankers treat debt as if it's money in the bank. They want to play like there's ZERO risk to THEM.

[geek tragedy]

61. Not really. He can't force foreigners to lend

Greece more money. Without more loans Greece will have to leave the Euro, since it won't have enough Euros to keep its economy afloat.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

64. That assumes they are going to stay in debt.

[geek tragedy]

67. They will remain in debt. They can refuse to pay it but

they don't have the ability to forgive their own debt.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

68. The economic model today is every country in the world is in debt.....

They only want payment from the ones run by "leftists".

You know,....because the Right has a proven history of success....

[geek tragedy]

69. Which ones are defaulting?

[Spitfire of ATJ]

70. This isn't a default. Watch. The EU will restructure the debt and write off a lot....

Worse case is Greece will see interest rates go up.

It's not like the old days when countries went to war.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

71. Depends on who they owe. This isn't Westeros and the Iron Bank.

[Fred Sanders]

34. Yep. The Euro is a physical banknote, the current Greek currency. No more Euro banknotes or deposits, no currency, no economy.

Now Europe has to decide...do we want Greece in the Euro paying it's debts over 100 years, say..or write off the 340 billion Euro debt and leave Greece with the drachma, free and clear of any debt?

[geek tragedy]

42. In order to keep Greece in the Euro, they

have to loan it a lot more money.

Good money after bad?

[Fred Sanders]

44. Yep. It is that or bye-bye to all the Euro-denominated Greek loans...

[Spitfire of ATJ]

72. Back when Greece joined the EU the right-wing government at the time LIED about it's finances....

They got fellow traveler Goldman Sachs to hide it's finances through creative accounting.

The banks and the Right Wing are blaming the People.

[cheapdate]

32. A default or a "Grexit" will completely erase all public pensions.

[Fred Sanders]

35. Except Greece could pay with fresh, new drachmas, good only in Greece. Not going to be easy...but enslavement is no fun either.

The cost of printing banknotes is trivial, the Central Bank would issue them to commercial banks.

A fresh start.

And since 60% of Greeks votes for that possibility I think the drachmas would be widely accepted for domestic commerce...it would be a start.

And didn't Russia promise to lend money to this new debt-free Greece....so the drachma could be internationalized again, over time? And China is never one to miss an opportunity for financial and political influence.

[cheapdate]

36. Yes.

[libdem4life]

46. Pieces of paper are worth paper value. It is the actual equaivalent of, say, gold that backs it up

That's why counterfeit is illegal. Nothing backing it up. Worthless. Actually, pretty much like the US...but we are able to use smoke and mirrors and dump phony "securities" on hapless governments like Greece and other EU members while demanding exhorbitant interest. It's a Ponzi Scheme.

The drachma would be worthless also without goods and services and manufacturing and food, etc. to back it up. That's going to take a while...people working, producing, trying to get raw materials for nothing...free. Especially with no external support or incoming currency, trade, etc.

[Fred Sanders]

47. Countries do not back up their currencies with gold, all but one....Ft. Knox is likely empty.

The "backup" is on most paper currency....backed up by the Central Bank good faith and ability of the country.

"Promise to pay the bearer of this banknote".....

http://www.businessinsider.com/are-there-any-currencies-backed-by-gold-2012-3

[libdem4life]

51. Not just gold, but precious metals just the same. About the gold, probably right. But that plays

into the Ponzi Scheme. And goods and services and manufacturing and trading and jobs, et al are also part of an economy. Greece unravelling will be devastating. I'm on their side. Spain is watching and would like to do the same. Every break of the global kleptocrats is a good thing. The price is high.

The next few months and years will be virgin territory for Capitalism. It's coming here, as well. Just not so soon. Notice it's the smaller countries having problems at this time, but it may be sending the proverbial "canary into the mine" as testing the future.

[jeff47]

52. Your position was abandoned in the 1930s.

There is absolutely nothing "backing up" the value of the US dollar. Dollars have value because you can trade them for goods and services. That's it. We de-facto abandoned the gold standard in the 1930s, completely repealing it in the 1950s.

Btw, the same is true for gold: There is nothing inherently valuable in a shiny, yellow, non-edible metal. But you can trade some for goods and services.

people working, producing, trying to get raw materials for nothing...free. Especially with no external support or incoming currency, trade, etc.

You mean exactly like what the Greeks are getting with the Euro?

[libdem4life]

55. It's not a position. And it was Nixon who took us off the gold standard in 1971. Then inflation

soared. Gold and precious metals have intrinsic value. It goes up and down, but there is always value. It became such so that trade could be carried on without actual sheep and goats, et al. It is limited, which makes it more valuable. Silver less so.

We are far worse off financially than the Greeks. China and Japan have extensive holdings in our debt. We just have more "credit cards" to use than smaller countries. The US is technically insolvent, but like the Emperor Who Has No Clothes, it's not yet in anyone's best interest to bring it out in the open.

There are a bunch of graphs here...China and Japan hold over 40%. Like Henry Ford said, I'm not so very smart, but I know those who are. It's a house of cards...and Greece is just one, but it doesn't take that many cause it's piled mighty high.

https://www.google.com/search?q=us+foreign+debt&biw=1366&bih=657&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=94aZVaiEMYLRoASKiJG4Dg&sqi=2&ved=0CDkQsAQ

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK
The Outstanding Public Debt as of 05 Jul 2015 at 07:38:51 PM GMT is:
$ 1 8 , 1 5 8 , 0 1 4 , 2 2 5 , 9 8 9 . 4 8

The estimated population of the United States is 320,919,997
so each citizen's share of this debt is $56,581.12.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.08 billion per day since September 30, 2012!
Concerned? Then tell Congress and the White House!

[jeff47]

56. Again, we de-facto abandoned it in the 1930s.

While we technically had a gold standard, the executive branch could set the ratio at will. Making the "standard" useless.

Gold and precious metals have intrinsic value.

Nope.

Imagine there is an apocalypse. You and I are survivors. I have food, but no gold. You have gold, but no food. Why would I trade you any food for your gold? I can't eat it. It won't let me survive longer. And any other survivors will accept food in trade. I don't need gold.

Besides, I can just go get your gold after you starve to death.

Natural scarcity was used to help avoid counterfeit money. So people used gold as "money" because gold was naturally rare. But we aren't in the middle ages anymore, and have other means to avoid counterfeit money.

China and Japan have extensive holdings in our debt.

Sovereign debt does not have to be purchased by another country.

The flaw in your thinking is you are only looking at debt the US owes to other countries and not including debt we owe to US persons and corporations. That's what "foreign debt" means. But all US debt is not foreign debt.

Who's the biggest holder of US debt? The US. We owe ourselves more than we owe to every other nation.

Your Social Security payments come from debt we owe ourselves. Unless you are young, your retirement savings should be invested in bonds. More debt the government owes to you. And so on.

But ignoring everything but foreign debt is a great way to demand savage austerity. And push people to stupid investments like gold.

[libdem4life]

58. No I just used Foreign debt as an example. And $50,000 per family is quite a hit...before credit

cards and mortgages, etc. We have no economy. That's my point. It's all smoke and mirrors and accounting tricks. The Federal Reserve Bank is privately owned. It is "for profit"...not ours, a few of them.

The Federal Reserve Note we now have does not have anything backing it up. Just the "good faith" of the American Government. That's faith, not anything tangible. That's called inflation leading to hyperinflation.

In 1970 I bought my first little car and filled the gas tank for $2.50. Gas Wars on all four corners would shout 25 Cents a gallon.

Then I waited in around-the-block gas lines...hoping there would be some when I got there. Community College was free. Students (like me) could work and go to college the next two years and pay as we went. My 2-bedroom condo payment in Los Angeles County, with the Home Owners's dues was $180 a month. My first teaching salary was $429 a month.

Then Nixon went to China to open up our markets/give away our soveriegnty...1970-71. All hell broke loose.

Here's an interesting You Tube

We're already screwed...the weakest link just broke. To me, it's only a question of how fast.

[jeff47]

65. It has always been smoke, mirrors and accounting tricks.

From the time when one early human traded a some milk for another early human's grain, it has been smoke and mirrors.

The only objects with inherent value to a human are the things that keep us alive. Food. Shelter. Clothing. Heat. Everything else is smoke and mirrors. And always has been smoke and mirrors.

The Federal Reserve Note we now have does not have anything backing it up

Yep. Guess what else does not have anything backing it up? Gold. Gold only has value based on other people being willing to give you goods or services for it. Hence my apocalypse example. There is no magic "value" inherent in gold.

In 1970 I bought my first little car and filled the gas tank for $2.50. Gas Wars on all four corners would shout 25 Cents a gallon.

So you don't understand the compounding effect of inflation, nor do you understand that lead made for much cheaper gasoline.

Then I waited in around-the-block gas lines...hoping there would be some when I got there.

And apparently you don't understand the oil embargoes either.

Community College was free. Students (like me) could work and go to college the next two years and pay as we went.

Yep. Your generation sacrificed education for tax cuts. From those of us born after 1970, thanks for fucking us over.

We're already screwed

Oh no! The guy who can't handle compounding interest, leaves out oil embargoes, pretends there was zero policy choices when we slashed education spending, and thinks money ever had inherent value predicts doom! Run for the hills!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

38. That's if you let the banks make the rules....

You could have the PEOPLE make the rules.

[cheapdate]

57. The problem is a lack of money, not rules.

They can make all the rules they want, but no one will sell them fuel, equipment, medicine, etc. without money.

I wish them luck, but it's not going to be easy.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

59. This isn't like household expenses.

[cheapdate]

60. Absolutely not. Domestic finances are not the same as a sovereign state's finances.

But when there is no money in Greek banks and no money in the public treasury things will get tough. Things are already getting dramatically harder just in the last week.

The government can create drachmas but Greece absolutely depends on foreign trade and very few, if any, foreign businesses are going to accept being paid in drachmas. They'll want euros.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

63. That argument doesn't work since Greece isn't a third world country.....

Also, other countries could decide to follow their lead.

Where the banks went wrong was telling Greece it had to change it's domestic policies to steal from the poor to give to the rich.

[cheapdate]

66. Not sure what you mean that the "argument doesn't work".

Greece and Greek Banks are out of euros, and unless they work out an arrangement with the European Central Bank they will not be getting any more of that currency.

Greece can easily walk away and declare their debts to be null and void. That's not the problem. The problem is the consequences. Greece needs goods and commodities that they don't produce domestically. Things like oil and gas, copper and steel, pharmaceuticals and medical technology, communications technology and equipment, etc.

They can walk away, but they will have to adjust to a dramatically different society.

(Edit : maybe you're suggesting that the Drachma would be a practical currency with value in international business. I think not. Even if a foreign business accepted drachmas, I think they'd want a big premium. Once your credit is shot, it's hard to say, "here, take these notes we printed.&quot

[Adrahil]

62. Make no mistake. What comes next for the Greeks....

... Is goona hurt. There are no easy answers to this at this point.

[fasttense]

18. Thanks Brook for posting this

A step forward out of this mess for Greece. I guess NGOs and propaganda didn't have as much sway as the corporate elite thought they would.

[MannyGoldstein]

30. Hopefully we don't have to bail out the big banks for this

And hopefully they didn't bet all of the FDIC insurance deposits on this, in the wrong direction.

[jeff47]

53. The EU already did. The Greek debt crisis was created by bailing out banks.

French, German and other banks made stupid loans to buy Greek property during the housing bubble. They also made loans for CDOs and other moronic securities.

Those went bad in the economic bust. The "bailout" to Greece meant the EU sent money to Greece, which was immediately sent back to EU banks. Leaving Greece with the bad bank debt.

Greece had its own economic issues too (There are no heroes here). But much of the crisis comes from bailing out European banks.

[freshwest]

50. So, the Greek people want the Euro deal? So much confusion in here. But Nai is Yes. Oxi is No.

And this means the PM will step down. Because instead of getting a plebiscite, he got the finger from his own people.

Am I reading this correctly now?

TIA.

[jeff47]

54. No. You're reading this backwards.

The vote was whether or not to accept a deal from the EU/IMF. The current Greek government wanted to say no, but called a vote to back it up because of the large implications.

The current Government's plan was to take the "no" vote to negotiate for the creditors to take more of a haircut.

The opposition's plan was to claim a "no" vote meant Greece had to leave the Euro. That isn't actually the case, but it is one possible outcome from the "no" vote.

So a "no" means the current Government gets what it wants.

It should be noted that Greece's debt problems come from bailing out French, German and other European banks for bad loans and financial shenanigans during the housing bubble. The non-Greek banks were bailed out, leaving Greece with their debt.

[freshwest]

73. Hi! Was the bailout accepted or not? n/t