Would Jones have won if his opponet was

[wasupaloopa]

decent upstanding individual?

My guess is that the areas where Moore did worse than Trump and worse than he did in the past was because of write in votes or people who stayed home.

I don't see this election as a turning point.

[boston bean]

1. Well it decreased the republican manority by one. Its all good.

[Hortensis]

49. That was one of two "earthquakes" mentioned by

a thoughtful conservative on I think Maddow, an editor of The Atlantic. It's hardly nothing that a senate determined to destroy all progressive programs and continue the transfer of wealth and power to a few lost a member and that the army fighting for democracy gained one. They're still the majority, but it's a thinnest majority.

But the second earthquake he pointed out was national: That Senator-elect Jones won by campaigning very simply on decency and respect for others -- and that sold big in a blood-red state where Democrats normally have no chance at all. Notably, women, younger generations and minorities flocked to his flag. If we can win Alabama (!) by campaigning for the decency and humanity that Republican extremists are trying to strip out of our systems, how much easier should swing states be?

[Jarqui]

2. I don't see it as a turning point either

I think it is kind of pathetic that it was even close.

[leftynyc]

35. In a state where donnie won by 28%

It's a fucking miracle a Democrat won. It took STELLAR work on the ground to make it happen.

[Jarqui]

43. A miracle?

Local malls banned this guy for being a pedophile which was supported by a number of women coming forward with their yearbooks, etc and that became national news
He was also broadly shown to be racist, misogynistic and homophobic

And under those circumstances, the Democrat barely won ....

... and this is a "miracle"?

We obviously have different standards

[leftynyc]

44. No - you just don't understand Alabama (n/t)

[Jarqui]

46. Sadly, I think I do nt

[misanthrope]

65. I certainly do and think the poster is correct.

One outlier does not a trend make.

[Jarqui]

92. I suspect this person understands Alabama

Re Jones - Moore: A little reality. Sorry.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10029979976

[misanthrope]

64. Also, the state's senior U.S. Senator gave tantamount blessing

to GOP voters casting write-ins for a non-Moore name as a form of protest. In effect, they said they would rather burn their vote than vote for a Democrat.

Those write-ins totaled 22,819. Jones won by 20,715.

In 2020, Alabama will graduate to the mean and leave a lot of Democrats disillusioned.

Thankfully, federal seats will be gained in other states in 2018 and 2020.

[Blue_Tires]

60. Oh, so I guess we should just forfeit the seat, then...

Since we evidently didn't do enough to "deserve" it

[JimBeard]

3. The seat will go back Republican in 2020

[BumRushDaShow]

6. That depends on how he performs in the eyes of the state

There's a tendency for incumbents to keep getting re-elected.

[Sophia4]

10. The Republican Party is aging and dying.

The Democratic Party is the party of the young.

So the seat may or may not go back to the Republicans in 2020. Depends on how the universities are funded, how the parents of the young do as they age (in terms of Social Security and Medicare and how much Republican cuts to those programs push the cost of caring for aging parents on the young), on whether wars have to be fought, on whether money goes for war rather than for building communities, depends on lots of things.

The youth vote tends to be Democratic -- and for good reason.
The Republicans are literally dying out.

If you were 40 in 1980, and a Ronald Reagan voter, you are now 77. You are aging. If you were 30 in 1980, you are now 67. And so it goes. The Reagan generation is disappearing. And with it, a lot of Republican voters. I myself am 74, so I notice this demographic change.

[JimBeard]

67. Do you remember Eugene McCarthy and McGovern plus many others who have depended on the youth vote.

The problem with being 70 is I have too many things to remember that throw road blocks in my conclusions.

[unblock]

11. we're on track to win a lot of seats in the next 2 election cycles that we may not be able to hold

but such is the nature of the beast.

incumbency has its advantages, so who knows, we might be able to hold some of those seats.

in the meanwhile, we should be happy to win our majorities however we can.

[Hortensis]

48. Agree, Unblock. It's the nature of democracy.

[DinahMoeHum]

26. Your concern is noted.

But funnier things have happened.

[treestar]

51. Not if we get out the vote like this time

This was an off-election, not even a midterm.

2020 will bring out more voters. And we have learned from 2016.

[bottomofthehill]

86. Look at it as a 3 year rental.

Last edited Sat Dec 16, 2017, 11:52 AM - Edit history (1)

Happy to rent it, but I dont think we can afford to keep it.

[Thor_MN]

4. If Moore was not a child molestor, If Moore was not racist, Jones would lose

in a landslide. Moore was the perfect storm of pig.*






* with apologies to actual pigs everywhere

[Sophia4]

12. Moore perfectly represented the bigotry and hypocrisy of the Republican Party

and its philosophy of "me first." "You" don't matter at all.

[Egnever]

53. I don't think the racism hurt him sadly and probably helped him win the primaries.

[TNLib]

5. I think it's a turning point

voter turn out was at a record high. Moore did well in rural counties but Jones greatly out preformed in the cities and suburbs. I think it proves that dems can be competitive anywhere if your run a good campaign.

[LakeArenal]

7. I think Moore still had it...

until Mrs. said, "One of our attorneys is a JEW." (her emphasis on Jew not mine). She might have lost that crucial skin head vote.

She nailed the coffin..

[leftynyc]

37. I think it was Sen Shelby

that turned the tide. He made it okay for conservatives to either stay home or write in.

[misanthrope]

66. +100

**

[unblock]

8. it was a perfect storm of good news for us. some of it particular to that race, but others not.

ya gotta think had the republican not been a child molester that would have earned him at least as much as the margin of victory, that being a little more than 1%. i mean, surely the whole hitting on 14-year olds issue cost him at least 2%.

so, yeah, it's not likely that we can repeat this in other deep red states.


that said, alabama proved that given the right candidate and the right circumstances, we can win anywhere.

moreover, we benefited not just from moore being moore, but also from donnie being one of the least popular presidents ever, and with huge discontent over the state of politics and government because of the republican party.

independents are starting to lean more left than right, and democrats are more motivated than they have been in a long time. our motivation to restore democracy in 2018 and 2020 might even exceed our motivation to vote for a black president in 2008.

[Sophia4]

14. The 14-year-old was the headline-catching issue in this race, but there is a

similar issue in every race in which a Republican runs.

The economic and social philosophy of the Republican Party is simply sick. That is why Democrats who are true to the high ground of the philosophy and ideals of the Democratic Party should win everywhere.

Our essential view on how government should work for everyone works. We have to believe in it because it works and win because we work for it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. If my aunt had wheels she'd be a car.

[GaryCnf]

13. I don't know

I do know that Republicans having a sexual predator for a candidate doesn't mean we win so clearly Doug Jones did something right.

There are lessons to be learned from Alabama '17. They may not help us every time in places like Alabama, but they sure as hell will help us in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

[lapfog_1]

15. You mean that Alabama didn't just become a bastion of liberal thought

I'm shocked!



However, a DEMOCRAT (and pro choice DEMOCRAT) won. That's big.
Alabama might be the reddest state in the union. And it wasn't just that Moore was a pedophile 40 years ago.

[iwillalwayswonderwhy]

16. I dont believe Jones would have won against somebody decent, however,

I still believe this election was a turning point, because it showed the strength of the party working together. It filled us all with hope, and determination. It showed that better days are a possibility. No matter the circumstances, nor how narrow the victory, it is a positive that can cause momentum.

[Blue_true]

17. What it does show.

Is that the AA vote is critical to American progress and 23% of White men and 35% of White women are fair minded people. Let's start with that and work forward.

[wasupaloopa]

91. I agree with thst. When I heard the AA vote

was 30% I was checking to be sure I heard it right. In that I think there was a turning point.

[eissa]

18. Not to be Debbie Downer

but, yeah, this was a case of a bad candidate losing more than a good candidate winning. Had the write-ins voted for Moore, he would be the one celebrating. Jones will be another Manchin Democrat, which hey, better than the alternative, of course. But he's going to have to vote with the republicans a lot more than we'd like in order to retain that seat.

[mopinko]

20. i think that would be supremely stupid.

if he doesnt dance w the one that brung him, he wont get another dance.

[Demsrule86]

33. Manchin has not voted for the GOP even once on policy this term.

[eissa]

36. I'd be more than happy if I'm proven wrong

and Jones goes on to become a strong progressive voice in the Senate. I'm just trying to be realistic given the very conservative state he comes from, and the politics of having to keep that seat.

[Kirk Lover]

58. My post got hidden for saying this.

[eissa]

59. That's odd

I wonder why? I was thrilled last night with Jones' win. It was such a stunning surprise, and really restored my faith. I just don't think we should be too over-confident with this win. Had a normal republican won the primary, I don't think we could have beat him, hence my prediction that Jones will be more of a centrist-right voice in the Senate, which again -- much better than the alternative.

[Kirk Lover]

68. It was deemed as right wing talking point. I would say that I agree with your post but then

that would be looked at as agreeing with a right wing talking point....so no you're wrong this is the beginning of Bammy being Blue !!! Yaaaayyyyy!!!!

[eissa]

75. Oh, FFS!

A right-wing talking point?! LOL! No, I'm not going to be overly-optimistic; I learned that lesson the hard way last year. If Alabama starts trending purple in future elections, and Jones turns out to be a strong progressive voice and retains his seat, I'd be more than happy to eat my words

[Kirk Lover]

77. They may of just alerted on me because my post count is low. n/t

[mopinko]

19. here is what turned-

thug voters who have been loyal to the party their whole lives found a line they could not cross. once you draw such a line, i think human psychology will lead you to look for more lines to not cross to convince yourself you are a decent person who did the right thing.
the wedge has been set. if we hit it when we hammer away, the split will widen.

[Lee-Lee]

21. What it is here is a lesson

To never dismiss a race as a “lost cause” and then as a result run a half assed campaign or a poor choice of candidate.


Because you never know when your opponent is going to hand you the chance of victory.

All races need maximum effort and the best possible candidate running.

You have to be positioned to take maximum advantage of every mistake your opponent makes or every bit of bad luck that they get. So when chances like this come around you don’t let them slip by.

We got lucky that this was a special election with no other races at the same time, so it got maximum attention and the problems with Moore got maximum media exposure. I question if we would have won the exact same race in a normal cycle.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. " Because you never know when your opponent is going to hand you the chance of victory."

"Luck is when preparation meets opportunity."

-Seneca

[spanone]

23. no, his opponent would still have been a republican so no chance of a decent upstanding individual

[JimBeard]

24. You guys need to look at some of the maps of the 2018 election............

some of the 8 states that the Republicans need to defend.

Texas
Nebraska,
Arizona
Nevada
Wyoming
Utah
Mississippi
Tennessee

Democrats need to defend 24. See what I mean!

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018

Scroll down to see the map

[mythology]

25. Probably not, but even before Moore was outed for underage kids

The race was closer than it would have been in 2016 or 2014 just like races in Kansas and Georgia. We won't win every special election, but we are consistently getting a far better vote share win or lose. That's a good thing.

[gratuitous]

27. Yesterday it was Jones couldn't win

Last month it was Virginia was going to stay solid Republican.

Today it's all about denying the prize.

I'm beginning to discern a pattern.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

28. We're Talking About Alabama

Had the Republicans not run quite possibly the worst candidate in recorded history, they would have won. They ran the worst possible candidate and STILL almost won. In the Deep South, they vote for the R after the name, and nothing else really matters.

What we CAN take from this is that this is yet more confirmation that Trump's unpopularity is dragging down Republican candidates nationwide, and there's no reason to believe the trend won't continue into 2018. We should take this as a great springboard into taking back the Congress in 2018, and then righting some of the wrongs that have been going on this year.

Whether or not Doug Jones keeps his seat in 2020 shouldn't taint his victory right now. It's a referendum on Trump, and even Alabama is giving an emphatic one-finger salute to Trump. That's why it's so exciting. The implications of parlaying this into taking back Congress in 2018.

[misanthrope]

71. I can't reconcile your first paragraph with the last two

This election was about Roy Moore's loss, not Jones' win, not Trump's popularity in Alabama which I can assure you is still high.

Jones has a two-year window to make a difference for the national party because unless his 2020 opponent goes on TV to simultaneously sacrifice a nine-year-old Confederate re-enactor while urinating on a Bible and screaming "Fuck the Crimson Tide!" then he's not getting re-elected.

[MFM008]

29. This was about 2 peas in a pod

Moore and Maggot.
48/48 approval in a GOP bastion?
It wasn't just Moore on ballot.
That's why this IS significant.

[Demsrule86]

30. I do...

They could have elected him...and didn't ...deep red state...and the Black turnout increased...good deal...the GOP is in massive trouble.

[Bleacher Creature]

31. Probably not, but you're missing an equally important question.

Would Jones have won had we not had this cartoon character of a President?

Trump has been dragging down Republicans this year in the range of 20-30 points. Without those headwinds, Moore likely would have won (although you could argue that a Republican Party with a more serious leader would have prevented him from being nominated in the first place). There's no doubt in my mind that Moore would have won a race against Jones if Obama were still President. Moore would likely have underperformed other Republicans, but he still would have won comfortably.

The story is, and will continue to be, Trump hurting GOP candidates all over the map.

[AlexSFCA]

32. we got lucky

that moore’s pediphilia allegations came out at the right time. He’s been awful long befor they came out though. If not those allegations, he would have easily won, no doubt. Doug needs to do a good job now for the next 6 months so people in other states would see that a democrat would be better for their state. This would majorily help us in 2018.

[SeaDoo77]

34. Jones Can Immediately Start Working On Reducing Abortions

Free family planning nationwide.
Free birth control.
Free childcare services.
Affordable health care for single moms, poor families.
Effective Sex Education.
Jobs programs for single mothers.
Affordable education for single mothers.
Additional opportunities and help for single mothers or poor families.

Many women would love to have children, but it would make it almost impossible for some to be successful in other areas.

Work on changing that.

Win every vote in Alabama Doug.

Make it an advantage to have a child and be able to be a good mom / family with opportunities.

[misanthrope]

72. If he does all that while proclaimin his aim is to "reduce abortions" it might not be a bad strategy

Although a sizable contingent will still opt for abstinence-only approaches and a reduction in all "social giveaways."

[marylandblue]

38. Moore was a bad candidate, but that's sort of the point

Republicans run a lot of bad candidates. They found one so repulsive even Alabama wasn't biting. That's why this is a turning point. They won't learn their lesson and will run more bad candidates. Steve Bannon will see to it. We have to be ready everywhere with our own high quality candidates. Even a prochoice candidate can win a conservative area if he speaks to bread and butter issues and gets out the vote.

[misanthrope]

73. The national party didn't do that, Alabama voters did

The GOP didn't handpick Moore. The voters in Alabama's primary and runoff did it.

[marylandblue]

89. GOP voters have done it before, they will do it again

They gave us witches, legitimate rapists, and Trump. They are ready to do even more next time, when Banmon primaries the Senators he doesn't like.

[Codeine]

39. Of course not.

Let's enjoy the seat while we have it, because it's a temporary thing.

[misanthrope]

74. Completely agree

**

[Willie Pep]

40. Maybe not.

Moore being a horrible candidate hurt him and helped Jones. A different Republican might have won.

[Calista241]

41. Not a chance Jones wins against a normal candidate.

But Jones may align with Dems, but i predict much hate being leveled against him here shortly.

We’ll label him a DINO and bitch about how we need a real progressive in that seat.

He’s likely to vote for this concealed carry bill here shortly, and i predict that’s when we’ll turn on him.

[Demsrule86]

79. He is a Democrat...remember we support Democrats.

[Johonny]

42. No, but the GOP primary process excluded those possibilities.

Now Jones and the democratic party have 2 years to appeal to people of Alabama.

[stevenleser]

45. He wouldn't have won, but it still would have been close.

I think Moore was hurt by Trump's declining popularity everywhere more than he was hurt by the allegations of pedophilia. But without both Jones gets blown out.

[jalan48]

47. Of course not.

[Kaleva]

50. It's a turning point as it showed the limitiations of Trump and Bannon

[Me.]

52. FRankly, I Could Care Less

He did win. Nobody thought he had a chance but he won and I'll take it and for now let the future take care of itself. Anything can happen these days.

[Demsrule86]

81. I'm with you...some of the folks here predicted that Jones would lose and have written other

debbie downer posts.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

54. A win is still a win

Going to savor the flavor.

[Paladin]

55. No way. Roy Moore was a gift to Democrats. (nt)

[Soxfan58]

56. Alabama is far from blue

But nice job last night

[MaryMagdaline]

57. I will always remember Doug Jones for

Having the guts to run in a red state. He put his name out there when he had no idea Luther Strange would not be the Republican nominee. He's not afraid to lose. That inspires me.

[Blue_Tires]

61. Your concern is noted

[artemisia1]

62. It IS a turning point...

It is a turning point in that, in a Deep Red State, waving a handgun, spouting the Ten Commandments (even if not following them, lol) and having all the "right" views wasn't enough to put an R in office in the face of charges of sexual improprieties with minors.

Edited to add:

It is also a turning point in showing that a vigorous get-out-the-vote can work at the right time and place even in the face of a seeming demographic impossibility (a Democrat in 'Bama post Nixon "Southern Strategy" ).

[misanthrope]

63. Nope

I understand the optimism but there's a lot of extenuating circumstances in this one election that aren't being taken into account. Jones is up for re-election during a POTUS election, when turnout will be higher, when his opponent won't be the most vile person imaginable.

[crazycatlady]

69. Sometimes a bad opponent is a blessing

In this case it was. In 2012, Claire McCaskill and Joe Donnelly won because of bad opponents.

Sadly, this does not work all the time (see Trump, Donald).

[DFW]

70. Not at all

Moore was to Jones what Todd Akin was for Claire McCaskill. McCaskill told me in so many words that Akin would have been Senator from Missouri if he hadn't been so stupid as to invent "legitimate rape" on live TV.

She knows full well that Akin's stupidity was what won the 2012 election for her, and that her opponent next year will probably be made to watch the Akin tape ten times an hour for a week until he can swear in his sleep that he will never say anything so stupid with the cameras rolling.

[Ken Burch]

76. Too early to tell.

The best case scenario is that it may have cracked the shell of Confederate thinking in Alabama. It the crack is deep enough, the sun will begin to peek through.

This MAY be a beginning.

[Demsrule86]

78. Still at it...

[FarPoint]

80. I believe he indeed would of won...

This Senate Seat was and is Senate Elect Jones's destiny.

[Lint Head]

82. There are no decent upstanding individuals in the Republican Party.

[Hoyt]

83. Fact is, our guy won. That's a good thing and should pay off in the future even if it only means

GOPers are more careful who they nominate.

[Pope George Ringo II]

84. I think I agree with the analysis I saw (538?) which split the 30 point swing into 3 parts

They said ten points of the swing from where Alabama was in 2016 was due to Trump being Trump. Ten points due to Roy Moore's history of being a raving lunatic. And then the last ten from Roy Moore also being revealed to be a pervert.

Without Moore, that's a twenty point hole Jones has to cover by being a good guy incumbent in the party opposite Trump. It's possible, but it's enough of a challenge I wouldn't want to say this election was the turning point so much as a foot in the door.

[HopeAgain]

85. I see it as a personal loss

For Bannon and Trump. Moore is just the kind of nut Bannon is looking for.

[catbyte]

87. Yeah, but when was the last time Repblicans put up a "decent, upstanding individual?"

Their deplorable base has a habit of nominating candidates as egregious as they are.

This WAS a turning point to me, another indication of a Blue Tide in 2018.

[110liberal]

88. unique situation

the repubs put up a very very tainted candidate in a normal situation I don't think jones would have won but a big thanks is due to the dnc, and especially the African American voters. Take a look at the state next door Georgia, thousands and thousands of unregistered African American voters as Ben Jealous said if they would register the democrats would win a lot of elections in Georgia. Unlike 2016 the dnc is going after all groups. I didn't support Tom, Keith was the one I was for but both of them have done a great job. We have a long way to go.

[McCamy Taylor]

90. NO. This was an anti-Trump backlash.

And just like Kissinger's notorious comment about "salted peanuts", the backlash has made Trump haters all across the country so happy and giddy that they can not wait to cast their own anti-Trump vote in 2018.

(For those that don't remember, Kissinger said that bringing troops home from Vietnam alive was like giving Americans salted peanuts. It would only make them crave more. Kissinger is an a-hole)