Atlantic: The Odds of Impeachment are Dropping

[pnwmom]

As sickening as this thought is, the possibility of impeachment seems to be dropping, despite the indictments and proven collusion, simply because the Republican electorate is still solidly behind Trump.

If we have a majority in the 2018 House, and try to impeach him and fail to convict -- which is a real possibility because conviction requires a 2/3 vote in the Senate -- then the backlash by his supporters could help re-elect him in 2020.

If Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer decide that it's not worth the risk of a failed impeachment attempt -- that the most important thing is to make sure he's not re-elected to a second four year term -- then I'm not going to second guess them. I'm going to focus my anger on DT, not on any Dem.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/trump-impeachment/547358/

But bringing impeachment charges against Trump, and actually forcing him from office, are two vastly different things. And while the former may be more likely today than it was half a year ago, the latter is actually less likely. Since Robert Mueller became special counsel in May, the chances of the House of Representatives passing articles of impeachment—and the Senate ratifying them—have probably gone down.

That’s because impeachment is less a legal process than a political one. Passing articles of impeachment requires a majority of the House. Were such a vote held today—even if every Democrat voted yes—it would still require 22 Republicans. If Democrats take the House next fall, they could then pass articles of impeachment on their own. But ratifying those articles would require two-thirds of the Senate, which would probably require at least 15 Republican votes.

That kind of mass Republican defection has grown harder, not easier, to imagine. It’s grown harder because the last six months have demonstrated that GOP voters will stick with Trump despite his lunacy, and punish those Republican politicians who do not.

Among Republicans, Trump’s approval rating has held remarkably steady. The week Mueller was named, according to Gallup, Trump’s GOP support stood at 84 percent. In the days after Donald Trump Jr. was revealed to have written, “I love it” in response to a Russian offer of dirt on Hillary Clinton, it reached 87 percent. In Gallup’s last poll, taken in late November, it was 81 percent. Trump’s approval rating among Republicans has not dipped below 79 percent since he took office. None of the revelations from Mueller’s investigation—nor any of the other outrageous things Trump has done—has significantly undermined his support among the GOP rank and file.

[roamer65]

1. Give it some more time.

Once they pass this shitbag tax bill and the midterms come into view, the knives are really going to come out.

[LonePirate]

2. Poor research by The Atlantic. There are two falsehoods in the first three paragraphs.

Impeachment conviction occurs in the Senate, not the House. Also, Clinton was impeached in 1998, over a year into his second term following his re-election in 1996.

[pnwmom]

3. Those were my mistakes, not the Atlantics. Their quote follows the link.

[PJMcK]

36. Exactly

The author of the article needs a civics lesson. A little brush-up on grammar and history would be helpful, too.

[oasis]

4. No biggie. Pence would have the advantage of incumbency going

into the 2020 elections, and since he's less of an abomination, he could win an additional term.

[pnwmom]

6. I think for once the incumbency might be a disadvantage.

And that Pence is going to be implicated by Flynn.

[oasis]

13. The pleasure of watching all of them squirm, will do

for right now. They'll get their comeuppance in due time.

[Freddie]

27. Pence will be Gerald Ford in this case

Ford was one of the last decent Repugs and not a bad president, but couldn't wash the stink of Watergate off. That's what would happen to Pence if Dolt 45 is removed from office or resigns under pressure.

[Doodley]

5. Trumps approval rating among Republicans has not dipped below 79 percent since he took office.

- I'll take 79% of 34 or 35 percent approval any day.

[Cary]

7. Correct

I'm in favor of #fakepresident inflicting maximum damage over the next 11 months. All we need to do then is get.out and vote.

[Doodley]

9. Yes, anything he does will be reversed and GOP will be out of office for a generation.

[Cary]

33. From your lips to God's ear

My goal is slightly higher: dissolution of the Republican Party.

If there are any sane Republicans left they must dissociate from the deplorables. The deplorables are 30%.

[Scruffy1]

16. Gallup gave the number at 24% last Summer.

This means his core support is about 19%. I also believe but can't prove that a lot of people are not truthful in the polls, especially Republicans. They have a very defensive posture. I think the tax bill and Grassley's comments will have some affect. All presidents lose support as time goes on. When he hits 25% Drumpf will be dumped. I don't think impeachment will happen but probably medical or psychiatric reasons wil be given. Of course his only protection is that no one in either part like Pence, so that leaves us with Ryan. This is the biggest mess this country has ever had at the top.

[Girard442]

8. It's important to remember that the German people didn't turn away from Hitler...

...even when their country was being pounded into rubble by the Allies. The Deplorables are on a war footing now. They can't be persuaded, only defeated.

[Comatose Sphagetti]

24. This

nt

[DFW]

25. That's harder to know

It was an instant death penalty to even say anything against Hitler, and his fanatic supporters roamed the country executing as traitors anyone they even suspected of wanting to give up. I know plenty of Trump's supporters would LIKE that to be the case in the USA (Roy Moore comes to mind) but we're not there yet.

[MFM008]

10. The first time WE

underestimated his support,
THIS time they underestimate our hatred of him.

[BannonsLiver]

11. I dont think it will get that far.

Like Nixon I think he’ll be driven from office in disgrace, get a full pardon from whoever his successor is, and spend the rest of his life as a saint to a very deranged segment of our populace. That’s how I think it goes down.

[Doodley]

12. If his successor pardons him, that guy will not be popular.

[DFW]

26. It put Jimmy Carter in office.

If Pence doesn't go first (and don't forget, Agnew did), he would almost certainly issue Trump a blanket pardon, as Ford did with Nixon. That alone would probably be enough to make him the second un-elected (officially, anyway) president we will have had.

[More_Cowbell]

14. NY AG Schneiderman will never stop

Until the Trumps have forfeited every asset they have. No pardon for state crimes.

I can settle for Trump being poor.

[BannonsLiver]

15. That would be wonderful as well.

[TexasTowelie]

17. I won't be satisified until I see Trump golfing here:

[pnwmom]

19. Thank goodness for state courts. n/t

[rockfordfile]

18. I expect if the Democrats take back the House to impeach

With regards to republican support for Trump not surprised.

[standingtall]

20. If Demorats take back the house

they must impeach Trump. I don't see how impeaching Trump runs the risk of getting Trump re-elected. Bill Clinton and Trump's situation are not comparable. Clinton's overall average approval rating was 61% among all voters during his 2nd term. So what Trump's approval rating is 79% among republicans? Bill Clinton's approval rating among Democrats was 89% before impeachment and jumped up to 91% after impeachment.

Even if Trump got the same 2% bump Clinton got that still would not be nowhere near enough to get him re-elected. Will take more than hardcore Trump supporters to get him re-elected. Clinton and Trump have two very different starting points. Clinton was very popular before impeachment and everyone who is not a republican hates Trump right now.

[pnwmom]

21. And you will be satisfied if he's impeached but not convicted? n/t

[standingtall]

22. Yes although I would prefer him to be impeached and convicted in the Senate

Justice must be pursued. Trump losing an election is not justice for what he has done. Politicians lose elections all the time without doing anything wrong. Simply losing an election is not a fitting punishment for Trump.

At the very last Democrats could force republicans to either impeach or go on the record with their vote having defended a criminal that committed treason against the United States. I would be satisfied at least Democrats pursued justice.

[Buns_of_Fire]

23. I'm thinking the situation may be resolved by three little-known players:

Ronald McDonald, Colonel Sanders, and Mother Nature -- with the assistance of a supersized order of Mueller-generated stress.

[democratisphere]

28. Anything goes with the redumbliCON party. Anything!

[Soxfan58]

29. There is more to come out

And the only thing those in congress like more than their presidents job is their own. When Donald Suck becomes a political liability he will be gone. I do not think he would go through a impeachment trial he would claim persecution and resign.

[Afromania]

30. Total non story. For the chance to impeach to drop there had to be a chance in the first place.

The crux of the matter is that there was never a chance. Republicans simply don't care what sort of human garbage speak for them as long as a)that person provides proxies for their voters irrational hate and b)will rubber stamp the nonsense legislational pap their overlords have been feeding their voters for years. At no time in this process has trump gone against either a, or b. So, they aren't going to impeach him. Passing this piece of shit tax bill won't get them moving on ejecting trump either. They'll only begin "considering" impeachment "after" the first nuke is dropped on our heads. Even then they'll push some shit about how they need continuity of office despite the fact trump will be the direct reason it happened in the first place.

[DeminPennswoods]

31. If Dems retake the House, Senate or both,

Trump won't care. He's a suvivor and a chameleon. He'll get right on board with every policy initiative Dems have, especially if it helps his popularity.

If Chuck and Nancy walk into the WH and tell him, "Mr. President, here is our plan to make you the most popular, greatest president ever.", Trump would be on board in a nano-second.

There will be no need to impeach him, they will just totally co-opt him.

[FarCenter]

32. The objective of the establishment in Washington is to control Trump, not to remove him

Only if they fail in controlling him will they actually remove him from office, and then probably not by impeachment.

[greeny2323]

34. LOL. What a dipshit article. n/t

[delisen]

35. He will leave office before 2020. His "base" will do nothing.

His support is actually shallow and will evaporate as quickly as it flashed up

[Vinca]

37. As long as the GOP is in charge, he's safe even if he entertains Roy Moore with 10 year old girls.