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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsSeth Abramson-unrolled thread, most informative!
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/936602442996813824(THREAD) MAJOR BREAKING NEWS: Mike Flynn will plead guilty to Making False Statements at 10:30 AM EST today (Friday). This is the biggest development in the Russia probe so far. This thread explains what it all means, and will be updated throughout the day. Please read and share.
68 tweets 3 hours ago
Seth Abramson @SethAbramson Follow Read on Twitter
1/ First, it's important to understand that Mueller has entered into a plea deal with Flynn in which Flynn pleads guilty to far less than the available evidence suggests he could be charged with. This indicates that he has cut a deal with Mueller to cooperate in the Russia probe.
2/ We've already seen Mueller do this once before in the probe, with George Papadopouloswho was charged with the same crime as Flynn, Making False Statements, to secure his cooperation with the Russia probe. The Papadopoulos plea affidavit emphasized facts were being left out.
3/ Flynn is widely regarded as dead-to-rights on more charges than Making False Statementsnotably, FARA violations (failing to register as a foreign agent of Turkey under the Foreign Agent Registration Act). There's recently been evidence he was part of a kidnapping plot, too.
4/ Getting charged with just one count of Making False Statements is a great deal for Mike Flynnit doesn't necessarily mean he'll escape incarceration, but a) it makes that a possibility (depending on what the parties and judge say and do), and b) any time served may be minimal.
5/ What this suggests is Flynn brings substantial inculpatory info (info tending to incriminate others) to the table. Unlike Papadopoulos, Flynn was going to bebecause of his position in the administrationa primary target of the probe. So he had to offer a lot to get this deal.
6/ Deals like this are offered *only* when a witness can incriminate someone "higher up the food-chain" than them. In the case of the nation's former National Security Advisor, the *only* people above him in the executive-branch hierarchy are the President and the Vice President.
7/ There may be other targets in the Russia probesuch as Attorney General Sessionsat Flynn's same level in the hierarchy, but unless he could incriminate two or more of them, a deal like this would not be offered to him. And there *aren't* two or more at his level in this case.
8/ What this indicatesbeyond any serious doubtis the following: Special Counsel Bob Mueller, the former Director of the FBI, believes Mike Flynn's testimony will *incriminate* the President of the United States, the Vice President of the United States, or both of these two men.
9/ For this reason, what's about to happen in 50 minutes is far and away the biggest development thus far in the Trump-Russia probe, and likely the biggest development in U.S. politics since President Nixon resigned from office during the Watergate scandal.
This is historic.
10/ The Papadopoulos plea paled in comparison to this because Papadopoulos was a top national security advisor to Mr. Trump, but still at nothing like Flynn's level of access and authority. The Manafort indictment pales in comparison because it was just an indictment, not a plea.
11/ The range of crimes for which Flynn can incriminate the president is unknown, but we have *some* sense of what could be involved. The first thing to understand is that Flynn had access toand influence withTrump on national security issues beginning in the Summer of 2015.
12/ The last *known* contact between Trump and Mike Flynn was late April 2017meaning the two men were in contact for approximately one year and nine months. Given that these twenty-one months make up almost the entirety of Trump's political career, this is a huge swath of time.
13/ During their last known contactApril 2017we know Trump told Flynn (at a minimum) to "stay strong," after which Flynn stopped cooperating with investigators. So the first thing Flynn can tell Mueller is all Trump saidand if he obstructed justiceduring that April 2017 call.
14/ But of course the "story to tell" that Flynn's attorney bragged the ex-NSA hadback in late March of 2017goes *well* beyond Obstruction allegations. Flynn was at the center of numerous contacts with Russia that he can report the president knew about and perhaps even ordered.
15/ Flynn met with the Russian ambassador and Jared Kushner in early December 2016 to discuss a "Kremlin back-channel" that some have argued would have constituted an act of espionage. Did Mr. Trump know about this? Did he direct Flynn and/or Kushner to pursue this back-channel?
16/ This December 2016 event underscores that Flynn's a threat not just to Trump but to others. It's easy to forget that, just because Flynnit appearscan incriminate the president, doesn't mean he can *only* incriminate the president. Many others are at risk, including Kushner.
17/ Indeed, today's plea coming so close on the heels of Mueller asking Kushner to come in and talk about Flynn suggests Kushner is also a target of the Russia probe. Perhaps Mueller didn't think Kushner would flip on family, so he set him up to Make False Statements about Flynn.
18/ This is critical: Flynn pleading guilty today means he was cooperating with Mueller *before* this. You don't offer value to a prosecution *after* you plead, you offer it beforehandvia what's called a "proffer" of info (that incriminates others). That's what earns you a deal.
19/ So it's entirely possible that when Mueller called Kushner in to talk about Flynn, he already had everything Flynn planned to give himmeaning he was *testing* Kushner to see if Kushner would lie about events Mueller was already fully informed about via Flynn's prior proffer.
20/ That proffer may have incriminated not just Trump and Kushner andperhapsPence, but any number of Trump NatSec (or simply "top" ) aides: Manafort, Sessions, Clovis, Hicks, Lewandowski, Page, and Gordon, to name a few. We may not know, however, until someone else is indicted.
21/ Mueller isn't obligated to tell the public what Flynn told him. We'll first learn of it (for all but Trump) via future indictments of those Flynn incriminated. As for Trump, he can't be criminally tried as POTUS, and probably can't even be indicted, so it'll work differently.
22/ What Flynn told Mueller about Trump will first appear in an indictment of a third partyquite possible, if the third party was/is close enough to Trumpor else in the final report Mueller is tasked with giving Rod Rosenstein at the DOJ (though that may take a while to come).
23/ How long it will take Mueller to issue indictments based on Flynn's proffer? It's hard to say: it depends on what evidence was given, what evidence Mueller already had, what additional investigation he wants to do on that person (perhaps to bring further charges), and so on.
24/ But Mueller may act on Flynn's proffer at any time, which meansand here's another critical pointthe daily, harrowing watch to see if Trump will attempt to fire Special Counsel Bob Mueller begins in earnest *now*.
If Trump moves to fire Mueller, all hell will break loose.
25/ I've long said that Trump *will* move to fire Muellersimply because doing so would quickly become one of his only options for self-preservation when/if Mike Flynn or another top associate entered into the cooperation deal with the Special Counsel.
Well, we're finally here.
lots more...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/936602442996813824
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Seth Abramson-unrolled thread, most informative! (Original Post)
babylonsister
Dec 2017
OP
Seth Abramson has been absolutely terrific. I *hate* his Twitter format, but the work he does...
Tommy_Carcetti
Dec 2017
#3
emulatorloo
(44,243 posts)1. Kick and Rec for Greatest Page n/t
MFM008
(19,826 posts)2. Great read
Warms my heart.
Tommy_Carcetti
(43,219 posts)3. Seth Abramson has been absolutely terrific. I *hate* his Twitter format, but the work he does...
...has been top notch.
PasadenaTrudy
(3,998 posts)4. Seth rocks! n/t
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)5. TY KNR
Javaman
(62,534 posts)6. This thread is a amazing. MUST READ.
Thanks for posting this.
hlthe2b
(102,447 posts)7. Scroll down the linked thread to discussion of Pence. Seth's got a lot to say--wowser
niyad
(113,645 posts)8. k and r and bookmarking for later.
ffr
(22,674 posts)9. #24 & #25
24/ But Mueller may act on Flynn's proffer at any time, which meansand here's another critical pointthe daily, harrowing watch to see if Trump will attempt to fire Special Counsel Bob Mueller begins in earnest *now*.
Cosmocat
(14,576 posts)10. W O W - WELL worth clicking on the link and reading it through
nm
Ninga
(8,281 posts)11. Phenomenal, comprehensive, read! Keep kicked. Nt
Enoki33
(1,588 posts)12. Extremely enlightening. A must read.
Duppers
(28,127 posts)13. K & R. - Excellent OP!
👍 👍
Duppers
(28,127 posts)14. 2nd kick
Pacifist Patriot
(24,654 posts)15. SA is a national treasure
liberalla
(9,271 posts)16. Love me some Seth Abramson!