TPM - Marshall - "Republicans Are Building Themselves a Political Trap with Tax Reform"

[NRaleighLiberal]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/republicans-are-building-themselves-a-political-trap-with-tax-reform

By JOSH MARSHALL Published NOVEMBER 30, 2017 10:19 PM

Given how this year has unfolded, we should not underestimate Republicans’ ability to snatch legislative defeat from the jaws of victory. Still, it looks like Republicans will get their prized ‘tax reform’. Yes, the bill is horrendous policy on numerous fronts. But don’t ignore the fact that Republicans appear to be building a perilous trap for themselves to fall into. Yes, they’re jamming it through before anyone can get a good look at what’s in it. Even they don’t know what’s in it. But remember, they and we will have all 2018 to find out.

Let’s walk through this.

Republicans have not held any hearings on this legislation. They do not even have an actual text of the legislation. To keep the process moving forward they’ve disregarded basically all the technical analyses of the legislation. They’ve determinedly put their fingers in their ears when there’s any mention of the bad outcomes we know about pretty clearly in advance – like a big tax increase for most families in a slew of blue states which still have a lot of Republican representatives.

Consider just one example: Pennsylvania. It’s high on the list of states hit hardest by ending or dramatically reducing the deduction for state and local taxes. Pennsylvania’s House delegation currently has 12 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Even after Trump pulled off a very narrow victory in 2016, it is at most a purple state with a disproportionately high number of Republican representatives to Republican voters. That means there are a lot of seats to lose.

Those are the known dangers which Republicans are trying to avoid discussing to keep up their momentum. The unknowns are just as important. We shouldn’t be blessing this monstrosity with the label of “tax reform”, which it’s clearly not. But it is also not a simple tax cut. Unlike the fairly straightforward cuts in marginal rates that George W. Bush got through Congress in 2001, this bill will make massive changes to the structure of the tax system. That is why you really want to analyze closely what’s in the bill and get a lot of technical input on how it is going to act in the wild. Any big piece of legislation with so many moving parts will have unpredictable consequences, even more so if you make close to zero effort to predict them.

snip - more to read at the above link

[mopinko]

1. the cuts to education are just mean.

taking away a measly $250 deduction for teachers is about the meanest thing ever.
and the brain drain we are gonna see because we are gonna tax tuition grants is just nuts. nuts. nuts. nuts.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

2. Not to mention ending the grad student tuition forgiveness.

Last edited Fri Dec 1, 2017, 03:22 AM - Edit history (1)

Paying taxes on $50,000 that doesn't even pass through your checking account? And you get maybe $20k in a stipend? Grad students won't be able to attend grad school. Research will disappear. Undergraduate classes won't be taught (I'm assuming grad student TAs are actually cheaper than contract adjunct professors) and our entire secondary education system will come to a crashing halt. This is vastly worse than the measly $250 deduction for teachers, which I totally agree should remain. Crap, it should be a potential $1,000 deduction. I haven't a clue how many teachers might spend that much, but if they do, they totally deserve the deduction.

Personal note: I have a friend, a "retired" elementary school teacher who (now in her 70's) does tutoring. We had lunch today, and I told her several times that we need to take a field trip to a book store and I will help her buy books for her tutoring kids. It won't be a lot of money, but the kids need it, and I'm happy to help. Just like I volunteer at the homeless shelter, and spend several hundred dollars buying food there. It's simply what I do. I'm lucky. I can afford it without a tax deduction, but there are those for whom a relatively small deduction really matters.

Goddam Republicans.

Oh, and I have a son in grad school.

[BadgerMom]

5. My daughter completed her PhD in 2015.

I understand this. I do not understand what the .1% is thinking. Do they believe they'll have the same quality of life if there is no medical research, no engineering, no scientific inquiry? I get that they think they can use their billions to travel anywhere in the world for treatment. It won't be convenient. They might not like their well-armed, ill, uneducated countrymen much.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

7. Thank you.

I have a somewhat vague awareness of the importance of grad students, thanks to my son.
But their importance is vital. Sort of like vaccines matter, even if you don't pay close attention to vaccine research.

My son's research is in exo planets. I like to tell people that I will give you his cell phone number, and when you walk outside and look at the night sky and see something you don't understand, call him up and just say, "I'm a friend of your mother's". Alas, he's not very likely to answer random phone calls, and I don't give his phone number out that readily. But I will say that every single time I talk to him I learn new things.

Here's one of them: As you probably know, our galaxy, Milky Way, is on a collision course with Andromeda. We'll crash into each other in about 4 billion years. Brace yourself, and watch out for property values. Ok. Here's an important point. Milky Way has about three billion stars, and Andromeda is about three times the size, with about a trillion stars. Wow. Anyway, not too long ago I asked my son, "So okay, when the two galaxies collide, how many stars will actually crash into each other?" He responded, "We're not totally certain, but at this point, the best guess is no more than ten." THAT tells you rather vividly how vast interstellar distances are.

I just love talking to him.

[BadgerMom]

8. Thats great.

[Midnight Writer]

3. Don't worry. The rich are going to trickle down on us. It only stings if you look up.

[ancianita]

4. This isn't a bill. It's a conspiracy to defraud this country's people of EARNED money and benefits.

There could be a RICO statute that covers this situation.

[notdarkyet]

6. Bingo.

[Merlot]

9. See the Clalre McCaskill video where she tells the repub that the taxes come from medicare

and he just says there are no cuts to medicare. It's like the repubs listened to the leader on this bill, didn't read it, and don't care.

My guess is this bill will pass, and the outcry is going to be loud.

[Amaryllis]

10. Yes but....there is still all teh problems with Russian and repub interference in elections

which has not been dealt with. This is why they dont care how people feel about what they do. They still have the structure in place to mess with elections.