A Texas-sized flood threatens the Gulf Coast, and we're so not ready.

[femmedem]

"In what could become the first major natural disaster of the Trump presidency, meteorologists are sounding the alarm for potentially historic rainfall over the next several days in parts of Texas and Louisiana. This is the kind of storm you drop everything to pay attention to.

The National Weather Service posted a hurricane and storm surge watch for most of the Texas coastline, and the governors of Texas and Louisiana have begun to assemble emergency response teams. Hurricane hunter aircraft are monitoring the development of the storm, which was just west of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are nearly ideal for strengthening Tropical Depression Harvey, which could reach hurricane status in the next few days. Water temperatures off the Texas coast are warmer than normal — some of the warmest anywhere in the world right now. Factoring in the state of the atmosphere and ocean, one model estimates the storm’s odds of rapid intensification over the next three days at greater than 10 times the typical chances.

The National Hurricane Center expects Harvey to stall out once it reaches the Texas coastline on Friday, and experts are worried about what might happen next. The official NHC forecast calls for the possibility of more than 20 inches of rain in isolated parts of Texas and Louisiana by next Wednesday, but some individual weather models predict twice that..."

More:
http://grist.org/article/a-texas-size-flood-threatens-the-gulf-coast-and-were-so-not-ready/

[Angry Dragon]

1. I willwait for he resident to save them

[Xipe Totec]

2. My mother's ashes have been safely deposited in her final home

So, let the rains come.

I was here during Beulah, so chances are this will be a disappointment for me.

[Warpy]

3. I'm sure the preachers will howl that it's divine retribution

for the courts striking down the discriminatory and unworkable voter ID law.

[sandensea]

43. +1

Sad; but absolutely true.

[Wounded Bear]

47. Personally, this agnostic/atheist thinks...

it's retribution for Trump trying to push all the transgenders out of the military.

[better]

53. I'll go with

retribution for all the false witness borne against the experts warning us to take climate change seriously...

[TexasTowelie]

4. I'm in the area where flooding is predicted.

If you don't hear from me for awhile then we know the reason. At least I'm on the second floor of my apartment building.

[steve2470]

6. good luck!

[malaise]

8. Stay safe

[NutmegYankee]

10. Good luck with Harvey.

Stay safe and dry.

[femmedem]

17. I'd get the hell out if I was financially able.

I'd take this one very, very seriously.

[Docreed2003]

27. Stay safe Towelie!!

[RKP5637]

28. Good Luck!!!

[jpak]

35. Food and water for 7 days - or more - fill the bathtub to flush the tiolet

Do your laundry before it hits.

If you can, get a cooling "mister" and a battery operated fan.

I lived on the Gulf Coast in TX for 4 years and I was always prepared to evacuate and survive the aftermath of a storm.

[TexasTowelie]

37. I'm pretty well acquainted with the hurricane regimen

since I've been around the Texas coast since Hurricane Celia. If it rains heavily, then I expect some flooding in Wharton since we are only about 50 miles inland and on the Colorado River. The good news is that I'm on the high end of town so if it floods here then it means that the entire town has flooded.

I was going to do laundry tonight anyways, so I have some extra incentive. The most difficult part will be taking care of the cats. While my Siamese and the two kittens are accustomed to be indoors, there is a striped tabby that I feed that is primarily an outdoor cat that will not like the wet weather.

I'll have to keep my fingers crossed that we don't lose electricity. I'm able to get on DU on my cell phone so I'll have the batteries charged up, but the main cell phone tower is located closer to the coast. I'll be miserable if we lose electricity, but I'm tough enough to stand it for a couple of days and since I'm in an apartment complex with about 200 apartments and live on the wealthier part of town so we should be towards the top of the list as far as getting power restored.

[jpak]

41. After my first 2 week post hurricane misery I invested in solar devices

Solar lighting, flashlights and solar cellphone chargers.

Solar showers, solar battery chargers - to run a fan.

Canned food that I could eat (and stomach) without using water for cooking.

Standard rations - Chef Boyardee ravioli and Dole tropical fruit, peanut butter and low-salt crackers - but that's just me.

Cheaper than MRE's - which you will gratefully stand in long lines for if they are given out.

[safeinOhio]

44. I bought a couple of those external

batteries for my phone. Pretty cheap $20 or so each. Can recharge your phone about 3 times before you have to recharge it again. If you can run your car you can use your car to charge it too.

Good luck

[murielm99]

48. You better take care of yourself!

We love you and need you around here.

I want to keep hearing from you, and you can give us some extra reports on what is going on down there during the storms.

[TexasTowelie]

52. I'll try to stay online as much as possible.

I recently had to purchase a new cell phone so I only have one battery instead of three like I had on my last cell phone. The good news is that I have a better Web connection on that phone compared to the old Samsung 1 that I bought in 2011. Unfortunately I'm about 50 miles inland while the nearest cell phone tower is in Bay City which is only 25 miles inland. I'll check into getting a second battery or a charger that can be plugged into a cigarette lighter port on my brother's truck.

I'm near the highway which is the major route between Laredo and Houston (what will eventually become I-69). The largest concern will be with the Colorado River flooding. The hurricane models are showing it landing anywhere from Brownsville to up on the coast closer to Galveston so it is a wait and see situation. We are going to see a lot of rain and there might be tropical storm force winds for up to two days.

Considering that I've survived one of the apartment buildings in my complex burning down last summer and two tornadoes in town this spring I'm beginning to wonder if I have a bullseye painted on me.

[jpak]

55. Text messages are the way to go - forget voice - post hurricane.

been there - done that.

[Delmette2.0]

42. Stay safe

Sending good thoughts your way.

[steve2470]

5. I really really hope this is not a repeat of "doing a heckuva good job Brownie"....

At least I hope not. I really hope people are taking this very seriously.

[NutmegYankee]

9. Nah! He has the best FEMA workers, the Greatest FEMA in all of US History.

You'll be just fine. The machinery of the 4th Reich fails none!

[steve2470]

11. I'm sure he will say that lol you have him pegged well! :) nt

[Strelnikov_]

16. History does not repeat, but it does rhyme

This is about the point in W's presidency that Katrina hit. He was tanking due to the 'gonna spend my political capitol' Social Security tour, and Iraq continuing to tank.

Ever think you would be pining for the days of the marginally competent W administration?

I will say one thing, what the nation experienced last night is not gonna fly after a major natural disaster. We may well see His Orange Majesty drop to 25% approval.

[pat_k]

7. very grim report from weather.com

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-harvey-gulf-of-mexico-forecast

A couple snippets:

The National Hurricance Center (NHC) has also issued its first ever public storm surge watch, which includes a swath of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island, including Corpus Christi and all of Galveston Bay. This new type of watch is issued when there is the "possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline" in the next 48 hours, the NHC says...

A tropical cyclone's rainfall potential is a function of its forward speed, not its intensity.

Therefore, if Harvey stalls for a period of a few days, it has the potential for producing prolific rainfall, capable of major flash flooding.

Rainfall amounts through next Tuesday could range from 10 to 15 inches, with locally up to 20 inches, along the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana

[BigmanPigman]

13. Too bad there isn't any research or data that can be studied to

better understand why the weather seems to be slightly different than it was about 50 years ago. Maybe the GOP should look into getting something like this started just in case it turns out to be a trend.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

36. Ha!

[TexasBushwhacker]

14. Beware slow moving storms

I remember Tropical Storm Allison. We got 40 inches of rain in Houston. Whole neighborhoods under water. Thousands left homeless. 23 dead just in TX, 41 overall.

[Catherine Vincent]

54. Yes...I remember TS Allison

It was bad. I sure hope it's not as bad as they predict because I bought my house back in January but didn't get the flood insurance yet. I had it on the sold house but it was non transferrable.

[Demtexan]

56. Houston has changed since then.

My old neighborhood was old houses with yards.

Now it is townhouses.

Lots of cement has been pored.

We are called the Bayou City for reason.

If this is like Allison it will be worse.

Houston has been town housed to death.

My old house is on blocks with a yard.

I do have tin to put up for the front and back porches.

I put in a drainage system since then.

[LeftInTX]

20. I think this is a good thing

It is good to have storm surge warnings.

This is not going to be a strong hurricane. The storm surge warnings will help residents in low lying areas to plan.

[pat_k]

34. Absolutely!

I just wish they weren't facing the possibility of being inundated at all. Getting the word out that just because Harvey may "only" be a Tropical Depression doesn't mean they aren't facing a potentially dire situation is a VERY good thing.

[dixiegrrrrl]

49. Poor San Antonio....just had serious flooding

Gonna be a high storm surge possible, too.
I honestly would just pack up the car/fur kids and go north for a week, if I could,
Post-storm is a nasty place to be, with power out, hear, mosquitoes swarming. *shudder*

[TexasBushwhacker]

12. That reminds me

I need to fill up my car, get some cash from the ATM, stock up on cat and people food.

[femmedem]

15. Yes, please take those precautions!

And take seriously any evacuation orders.

I'd be very worried that with a slow-moving storm like this, by the time you realize you need to evacuate, the roads would be impassable.

[TexasBushwhacker]

18. I'm pretty far inland

We'll have street flooding, but my apartment complex is built pretty high relative to the road.

[femmedem]

19. glad to hear it! n/t

[LeftInTX]

21. My son and his wife are coming to town for a baby shower

They live in Houston near Rice U.
We live in San Antonio.

[TexasBushwhacker]

22. Rice U area - very nice

My dad was the assistant treasurer at Rice for 20 years, back in the 60s and 70s. We couldn't afford to live in West U then. Forget about now.

[LeftInTX]

26. They live in an apartment

[Texasgal]

23. I'm worried about Houston

and surrounding areas.

It would be so nice to see some rain in Austin though. I hope the storm moves off. Houston is a big worry though. Hope everyone stays safe!

[virtualobserver]

31. Ordinary storms have caused serious flooding.

If it stalls over Houston, it will be a disaster.

[Lisa0825]

24. I work in Galveston, and live just over the causeway. I am watching closely.

I'm pretty nervous about this!

[femmedem]

25. give yourself enough time to get out.

Glad you're watching it closely.

[malaise]

29. This looks bad

Stay safe

[Lisa0825]

32. I am doing some serious *wishcasting* --- looking for computer models that send it the other way.

It's still too soon to tell what will happen, but yet we won't have much time once we have a better idea. By morning, it should be more clear.

They are comparing this to TS Allison, which did a u-turn and stalled over us, dumping torrential rain on the area and flooding out the Texas Medical Center, and many neighborhoods.

My house was not flooded during that and (*knock on wood*) has never flooded, but it came DAMN CLOSE during Allison, and during the Tax Day Flood this year.

[femmedem]

38. It's a better safe than sorry situation.

My biggest fear would be staying too long and then being unable to evacuate.

But if I were elderly or disabled or didn't have a car, I don't know what I would do.

[Lisa0825]

45. My issue is 6 rescue cats, including 1 which I'd more likely win the lotto than get her in a crate.

Evacuating is a last resort for us.

[femmedem]

59. I understand. I have a small feral colony, some formerly stray rescues

and a very feral cat in my bathroom that I caught with a Have-A-Hart trap, whom I'm going to get spayed when she goes out of heat.

But unfortunately staying behind because of pets is a primary reason people don't leave and end up in real trouble. Maybe you can pack them all up and find a trap for your fierce feral.

A lot of shelters accept animals now because so many people died in Katrina because they wouldn't leave their pets.

[dixiegrrrrl]

50. I have seen what happens when people wait too long to leave

and a couple thousand of them bog down the roads.
Post storm is no picnic either..no power, roads flooded, heat, etc.
If you can go north ahead of the storm, it would be good.

[Lisa0825]

51. Yeah, I was without electricity for 3 weeks after Ike.

At this point, unless things change dramatically, it is not looking life-threatening for me. Unless my city order an evacuation, I will stay. We do have levees around us and are on a bit higher ground than my surrounding areas. I have been in this area most of the last 35 years, and my home is still standing.

[femmedem]

60. This morning's warning couldn't be more serious for Galveston:

FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 10-14 inches, with locally higher amounts - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for major flooding where peak rainfall totals well exceed amounts conducive for flash flooding and rapid inundation. Rescues and emergency evacuations are likely. - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of extensive flooding rain impacts. - Life-threatening flooding is possible. Failure to take action may result in serious injury or significant loss of life. If flood related watches and warnings are issued, heed recommended actions. Poor decisions may result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives. If vulnerable, relocate to safe shelter on higher ground before flood waters arrive. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. *

[RKP5637]

30. I seriously bet Trump doesn't give a shit! He's a sociopath among other things! He will only care if

it effects "Trump" and will care for "Trump's" sake. The rest will be considered losers. This man is evil!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

39. Wish it was on the side where Mira Lago is. It's on the other coast of Florida.

[RKP5637]

40. That would get his attention, only for his own property. n/t

[jpak]

33. Please - heed the warnings - get to high ground - YAOYO

FEMA will not help you.

Trump will be golfing.

[CCExile]

46. I think I'm ready...

Extra canned food, jugs of water, pre-cut plywood for windows, hurricane lamps, a house 30 feet higher than mean tide for Corpus Christi bay, hand crank radio, propane and burner, first aid kit, concrete Buddha and incense, kratom... Yep, ready! Now, where did I put that surfboard?

[bluecollar2]

57. When stocking up don't forget mosquito repellent ya'll

That much water is going to provide plenty of opportunities for the mosquito population.

Repellent and a small tube of first aid anti-biotic cream will be handy.

After Andreq that stuff was worth it's weight in gold....

[secondwind]

58. Did we finally get a Director of FEMA??

[femmedem]

61. This morning's forecast is dire.

Link to tweet

For folks who can't see the tweet, it is an image with a long swath (nearly all the Texas coast and a good chunk of Louisiana) with 20 - 40 inches of rain projected through the next week in an area where the ground is already saturated.

I'm also seeing that Harvey could be a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane at landfall.