Removing Trump now could give us an 10-year Mike Pence presidency

[egbertowillies]

Last edited Sun Aug 20, 2017, 01:36 PM - Edit history (1)

Robert Reich is calling for the immediate removal of Donald Trump. Reich said a principled right-winger is better for America and the world than an unhinged sociopath. Mike Pence? I have been resisting Trump's removal for selfish political reasons. I will explain why below.

https://egbertowillies.com/2017/08/20/11-year-mike-pence-presidency/

[FSogol]

1. Removing Nixon now could give us an 11-year Ford presidency!

[H2O Man]

8. Exactly.

Ford was "the one man who could bring Americans together."

[Awsi Dooger]

47. Faulty memory

Someone probably said that, but it was a meaningless short term outlier.

Ford's approval rating tanked after he pardoned Nixon. From that point forth he was always the betting underdog. His approval rating at times approached where Trump has been recently, in the 37% range.

Reagan never would have challenged a sitting president, and come so close to winning the nomination himself, if Ford had been considered just the man for the job and the country.

[H2O Man]

48. Perfect memory,

and you said what I implied.

Lots of people in the Congress said that.

[lastlib]

22. Ford would not have been eligible for a second full term.

Last edited Sun Aug 20, 2017, 04:05 PM - Edit history (1)

If Pence is elevated before 1/19/18, he isn't either.

22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

On edit: s/b 1/19/19

[LeftInTX]

23. I think cut off date is 1/19/19

We've got an extra year.

Interesting note: The effort to boot Nixon increased after the 1974 Republican primaries.

[lastlib]

25. you're correct, my bad.

(had 2018 elections on the brain........ )

[FSogol]

35. I was responding to the blogger's ridiculous supposition. I have heard of the

Constitution.

[lastlib]

38. Sorry, missed the sarcasm....

derp.

[GeoWilliam750]

58. Interesting to read this again

I am certain that constitutional scholars will have far more refined opinions, but the implication is that a President could then be elected as a Vice-President, and become President again. Alternatively, it would seem that a President, could in theory, be elected to the House, become Speaker, and find himself back in the White House for a short time.

[Eliot Rosewater]

2. GOP won neither EC or Popular, we must do something about that.

I refuse to accept dominionists making decisions about anything, anything at all

[Initech]

3. Fucking constitution! How does it work?

[oberliner]

4. Trump will not be removed

People need to let go of this fantasy.

[leftstreet]

5. +1

Under the right circumstances, he might MIGHT resign, but no one is going to remove him

[mr_liberal]

28. And thats a good thing. Pence is much worse.

He's much further right wing. A theocrat.

If Trump would do what he really believes he'd be a moderate president. There's still a chance that he will move to the center, not stack the supreme court with conservatives.... and be influenced by Jared and Ivanka. There's no chance at all of that with Pence.

[emulatorloo]

40. What's yr evidence Trump wants to be a Centrist President and moderates on the Supreme Court?

[mr_liberal]

42. Because of the positions he took before he ran for president.

Before he ran for president he was pro-choice, for universal health care, supported democrats etc... Trump has no ideology, he's not really a conservative, he just said what he had to to win.

He told someone he might expand his judge list, its what Kennedy would want, Kennedy is a friend of the family.... I think its what Jared and Ivanka would want.... It would be a hard thing politically for him to do, but it think its possible with pressure from moderate republicans and all the democrats, and the public.

[emulatorloo]

43. Sorry, the guy is the head Birther. If he was ever "moderate" it ended when he accused Obama

of not being an American. And that was long before he ran for president

[mr_liberal]

44. Thats just one issue.

You need to read the news. There's stories all over the place now about him maybe moving to the center since Bannon is gone and how its because of the "west wing Democrats" Jared and Ivanka.

Don't be so partisan and hateful of Trump that you can't be objective.

[emulatorloo]

49. Dunno Birtherism is the foundation for his re-invention

The bedrock of Donald Trump ever since.

"Don't be so partisan and hateful of Trump that you can't be objective."

Hmm maybe lighten up on the hyperbole and mind reading.

Odd to call people who have reasonable objections to the lie that is Birtherism "hateful".

There is nothing more hateful than falsely painting a man as not American like Obama did Trump. Obama is pretty much the American dream personified. Trump lied and smeared him. That says a lot about Trump's mindset and character.

It is not "just one issue." It is evidence of total moral failure.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

57. "You need to read the news"?

Condescending much? As one who actually reads the news avidly, I feel pretty comfortable in my conviction that Trump will never move to the center, wherever that is. What we have seen so far is exactly who Trump is and he will not change. The departure of Bannon is irrelevant; Gorka and Miller are still there, and Bannon will be exerting even stronger influence through Breitbart. And don't be so sure that Jared and Ivanka are, or will be,or even can be, a moderating factor. They do what Daddy says and they will never cross him. After all, he's the source of the money and power they have now, and it can all be taken away. While blood may be thicker than water, Trump's ego is thicker than blood. Bannon's direct influence on Trump's base through Breitbart will be far stronger than Jared and Ivanka. The base doesn't give a crap about those two but they will eagerly suck up all the bullshit Bannon publishes.

[rockfordfile]

69. That person is pushing right-wing talking points.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

54. There is no chance the Trump will move to the center. None.

That's not only because he revealed himself years ago to be a racist, but because he has no political principles at all. He's in it only for the ego gratification and the money he's scamming from the government. More importantly, even if he wanted to move to the center (if he even knew or cared where that is), he can't. If he does his base will abandon him; Steve Bannon will pillory him in Breitbart; and all the bad shit he's done so far will prevent him from acquiring a new voter base.

Pence is awful, to be sure, and he's sincere about being a right-wing bigot, but he's far less likely to start a nuclear war. And he's already tainted by his support for Trump.

[rockfordfile]

68. Trump is a right-wing extremist. He put a fascist on the Supreme Court

Trump is a bigot and racist. What's with the right-wing talking point?

[marylandblue]

31. It's not a fantasy

Republicans never wanted him, and he is not giving them what they want now. So far, he has proven himself completely useless in furthering their goals. If he can't bring in tax cuts this fall, then he will be less than useless, he will be actively in their way. Then they will have a big incentive to try again with Pence.

[emulatorloo]

51. Agreed. Sadly that won't well for them either.

Pence cannot muster the fanatical devotion of Trump fans. He's a terrible salesman for Ryan and McConnell's terrible agenda, imho

[MrPurple]

63. If Mueller delivers verifiable cause, impeachment is possible

If I understand this correctly, an impeachment vote would currently require 24 Republican Congress members to cross the aisle and then then 19 Republican Senators.

If Mueller's findings are allowed to come out and they're damning enough, I don't think it's a fantasy. It might seem unlikely, but it's not inconceivable, the way things are going with Trump's approval ratings and his relationship with the party, that that number of Republicans could vote against him.

[fallout87]

45. I agree

It was supposed to happen every day. We need to concentrate the fight on everything he does, not keep hoping he's going to be removed every single day.

[underpants]

53. I agree. It's highly unlikely.

But he has been damaged.

[LanternWaste]

62. I like your prophetic tea-reading.

I like your prophetic tea-reading.

As is most consistent, yours is predicated on the same amount of accuracy, objective, primary sources and precedent as most of your predictions.

And consistently providing us with those sources rather than merely yelling bumper-stickers simply solidifies your validity.

Fantasies, indeed.

[oberliner]

67. Thanks

I try my best!

[rockfordfile]

72. I got News for you Americans want him out of office.

The only thing keeping him in office are his fellow corrupt GOP.

[bluepen]

6. Maximum would be 10 years.

And that's only if Trump served out half of this current term.

Still horrifying. Actually, one day with Pence as president would be horrifying. I hope he's implicated in whatever Mueller finds.

[Jake Stern]

7. Very much agreed

Trump pisses me off but hyper-fundie Pence scares the shit out of me. He has all the malice but with a smoother, calmer voice.

[Voltaire2]

9. nope. Not according to the 22 amendment

"No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. "

[link:https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxii|

In fact removing Trump before his third year would limit Pence to one more term. Removing Trump after his 2nd year would allow Pence to run twice.

So other than that the linked essay makes a good point.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

16. Yes, good point. Depending on the timing of Trump's exit, if ever, ...

The max Pence could be prez is ten years, after two years of Trump.

Still too much of a bad thing, so we have to get a good Dem candidate and a good Dem turnout in 2020.

[egbertowillies]

18. Thank you. I've been correcting the article. I have the best and most informed readers.

[Weekend Warrior]

65. You are countering Reich, then correcting your "article" as readers set you straight.

"I've been correcting the article. I have the best and most informed readers."

Far more informed than the original person disseminating the information.

[Sen. Walter Sobchak]

10. The allies decided not to assassinate Hitler in 1944

because Hitler had made so many tactical blunders after D-Day that they feared Goering taking the helm would be a military setback.

[unblock]

11. In theory it's possible to be president for even longer, but extremely unlikely.

If pence manages to be president for 3 years of this term and is elected to 4 more years of his own term, he can't be elected either president or vice-president due because you can't be elected to either of those offices if completing that term would mean more than 10 years as president.

However, in theory, he could be elected or appointed to a post lower on the order of succession, e.g., speaker of the house.

If the president and vp were to simultaneously go away somehow, then pence would become president and not subject to the 10 year limit. In theory this could repeat endlessly.

The 10-year limit is not a limit on serving as potus, only a limit on getting elected.

Really unlikely, though.

[lastlib]

24. My understanding (it could be wrong....) is

if he did serve a partial term of 2+ years, then a full term, then got another post in the succession order and ascended back to the Pres/VP slot, he would be ineligible to serve in either of those capacities. I think it would be very likely that the Supreme Court would rule against that. But it would be such a weird scenario that I don't think it would ever be actually tested in court.

But, again, I could be wrong. I can't cite any authority, and I'm certainly NOT an authority.

[unblock]

50. The language of the 22nd amendment is quite clear.

Is places no limit on serving as president at all.

But I agree, extremely unlikely ever to happen.

[MineralMan]

12. Not if Democrats are united and actually go to the polls, it won't.

Besides, the maximum time, under your method, would be 10 years. You made a calculation error.

[LovingA2andMI]

13. OMG!!!

Sick of hearing this s**t. Trump needs to go NOW! The Constitution allows for the V.P. (unless he is convicted of a crime also) to become President, period. Right now the V.P. is Pence. RECENT history proves that Pence going from V.P. to POTUS (if Trump Resigns and/or is Impeached and Removed) does NOT automatically or by history (THINK President FORD's 2-year term) equal he will be elected once or less known twice into the office of POTUS.

In fact, it is HIGHLY DOUBTFUL the insane tenure of Trump will not and will likely indeed fall into Pence. With that, his chances of being elected POTUS in 2020 is less than 20%.

The focus needs to be removing Trump by any means necessary and making sure the Democrats have candidates that are ready to fight for the OVAL by any means necessary in 2020. To debate back and forth about what the Constitution allows with Trump's removal is straight up, meaningless.

Lastly, straight up not clicking on this "article" posted directly for page views. Have better things to truly do.....

[stopbush]

20. Agreed. tRump needs to go now because he is a disaster.

Progressives weighing whether Pence would be worse than tRump is just as craven as Rs making the calculation that they could support tRump because they thought he would be a rubber stamp for their racist agenda.

[fallout87]

46. I agree

But how? How does he get removed?

This is not something that happens easily. How many times in the history of our country has a president actually been removed? Only 2 out of 45.

[rockfordfile]

71. Trump would have been gone already in normal times

[Spider Jerusalem]

14. No, it couldn't; you need to read the 22nd Amendment.

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

[Blue_true]

15. No. At the most Pence would have 7+ years. nt

[Tommy_Carcetti]

17. No, it won't.

It will give Pence no more than a 7 1/2 year presidency, assuming he somehow gets re-elected in 2020.

Whether a successor President is allowed to run for President twice is determined if he/she ascends into the presidency before or after the halfway mark of the first term. That won't be until January 2019. Even then, the most Pence would serve would be 10 years.

[struggle4progress]

19. Mebbe --- but I ain't seein it

[Cicada]

21. The problem with keeping Trump: risk of nuclear war

[Not Ruth]

26. Pence is unlikely to be re-elected

However if he brings in Romney or Jeb as VP, both diehard NeverTrumpers, and they run instead of Pence, all bets are off.

[CrispyQ]

27. I think Pence would be primaried.

I don't think he'd win a national election. He has no personality & really, he's kind of creepy.

[haveahart]

29. Pence for 2.5 years. He will never be President. It will be a long time before the GOP

get the WH back. Trust this. The people are rising.

[anneboleyn]

30. Pence would NEVER win on his own. People who don't live in Indiana have very little exposure

to Pence since he honestly did relatively little during the campaign other than deliver a thoroughly lackluster debate performance. He was a terrible governor, and he actually left Indiana politics as things were beginning to go VERY south for him personally as a political figure. Pence is an extremely stiff person with ZERO people skills (he would make Romney look like Mr. Congeniality in comparison), and his inability to think on his feet or truly relate to the average person would be glaringly obvious on a national stage.

Pence is a dismal figure who has a serious lack of charisma, and even republicans would tire of his very limited capabilities, which would be glaring if he were the primary candidate. Last fall he did little other than stand behind Trump with a vague smile on his face. Obviously running for president on his own would demand that he become compelling enough on his own to attract independent voters, the republican "Trump voters" (Pence is actually not an "economic nationalist" or whatever Trump was claiming about himself in any way -- Pence is a classic republican globalist corporate guy), AND overcome the massive stigma of Trump. That would be impossible for a guy as limited as Pence. If Trump were say removed because of some Russia-related issue, I would doubt that Pence would even attempt to run on his own.

[bettyellen]

32. No, Pence is an anti-woman freak. We will rise up. And demand men support us.

[CentralMass]

33. It sounds like tRump is going to ratchet things up in Afghanistan

Do you trust him ?

[J_William_Ryan]

34. As already correctly noted:

Pence would be worse than Trump because Pence is a true believer, a hardcore social con hostile to the privacy rights of women, the equal protection rights of gay Americans, and the voting rights of African-Americans.

Like most on the right Pence is hostile to the rule of law and would seek to conjoin church and state in violation of settled, accepted Establishment Clause jurisprudence.

Nothing would be ‘gained’ with Pence as president; and Trump would be the more vulnerable candidate in 2020.

[emulatorloo]

37. Pence has the charisma of a turnip. Terrible salesman for the RW agenda

They are still clinging to Trump because they think he can use his tv-star charisma to bamboozable working people into thinking that tax cuts for the ultra-rich are great.

Pence can't sell anything.

[Chipper Chat]

56. I resent you insulting turnips like that.

Turnips are a beautiful purple and cream color. Pence is ultra-lily-white and devious.

[emulatorloo]

61. ...

[MrPurple]

64. Repub's appeal to evangelicals, but actual Christian fundamentalists don't win national elections

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

36. Hell no. That creepy fuck has none of the "so called charisma" or novelty of the orange

orangutan. And yes I realize this other jerkoff is not charismatic to us. But he is to the more, let's call it knuckle dragging segments of our society.

[emulatorloo]

39. Lol just posted the same thing right above before I saw yr post, so plus 1.

[Weekend Warrior]

41. According to you, Trump might bring us single payer.

Nothing more than poorly thought out click-bait.

[DonCoquixote]

52. while I can understand wheret he op comes from

Youc an also argue that for all his bluster, Pence will not toss about nukes. He also will nto have the ride or die following, because the minute he speaks, he will show a lack of charisma, and also isolate the libertarians.

[L. Coyote]

55. The party of a disgraced president won't pull that off.

Not to mention, don't people realize Pence didn't run because he didn't have a prayer.

[MFM008]

59. WRONG

Just wrong.

[pnwmom]

60. NOT removing Trump could give us 8 years of Trump followed by 8 of Pence. n/t

[rockfordfile]

70. Yeah the right-wingers said the same thing about tricky dick

[OliverQ]

66. False. Removing Trump now gives us the shortest possible Pence tenure.

If Trump is removed and Pence takes over before Trump reaches the 2 year mark, Pence can only serve 1 more four year term, making him capped at 6 years.

If Pence doesn't become Pres until after 2 years have passed, he can serve 10 years.

[pnwmom]

73. Thanks for clearing that up. n/t