How does Donald Trump win in 2020?

[Casprings]

If you want to prevent something, you have to imagine how something does occur. Trump cannot and should not win another term. That said, let's assume he did does win, and it is 7 November 2020. What has happened from until then that caused his victory?

[LonePirate]

1. Republicans continue to suppress the vote while turning out every racist and idiot they can.

[Angry Dragon]

2. He finds Jimmy Hoffa in the concrete of TrumpTower

[Shrike47]

3. He started a war and people were united in support of him and the country.

Of course, the last time a president did that, it turned out very badly for him.

Or, everything in the country is going so well, people want to keep it going. Health care is universal and cheap, full employment, lower taxes on the middle class, rising wages in real terms, education is improving and nobody is shooting anybody. (Heh, heh, heh)

[Casprings]

4. My answer

1. Terriable dem candidate
2. Economy still decent
3. Nothing crazy happens foreign policy wise (e.g.
War with North Korea)
4. Dems don't win the house in 18 and have no oversight ability.
5. Mueller is either shut down or nothing comes of it besides a few connected associates are in jail.

That allows him another chance to lose the popular vote and win the EC.

[Not Ruth]

5. Russian hacking

[Garrett78]

6. Voter suppression, and lousy strategy on the part of an uninspiring Dem Party/nominee.

And Dems mistakenly thinking they'll win over bigots with a rightward shift. In other words, failing to heed the words of Democracy Now guest Steve Phillips:

STEVE PHILLIPS: Yeah. So, the challenge the Democrats face is to focus on the math, and not on the myth, of what happened in 2016. And so, the myth is that all of these Democratic voters, all of these working-class white voters who had supported Obama, defected from the Democrats and then flocked to Donald Trump’s campaign and backed him, and that’s what the—that’s why Democrats lost, and that’s why they have to pursue them to be able to actually try to reassemble their power and get back into positions. But that’s not actually what happened, and it’s certainly not why they lost the election.

We had unprecedented—or, unprecedented in 20 years, black voter turnout drop-off. More than a million fewer black voters came out. And you had a splintering of the progressive white vote. And you had a larger increase of voters for Johnson and Stein—I sometimes call the JohnStein voters—than you did for Trump. And if you look in a place—Wisconsin is where it’s clearest. Trump got fewer voters in Wisconsin than Romney did. So it wasn’t like everybody flocked to him. It’s that the progressive votes splintered and was depressed. And that’s the challenge that the Democrats face, is how to reinspire, bring back out African-American voters, bring up Latino vote and bring back the whites who defected to third and fourth party. That’s the way to put back the Obama coalition. That’s the way to get back into power. But all this attempt to try to figure out how to woo voters who were drawn to one of the most racist, misogynistic, xenophobic campaigns in history is a fool’s errand.

[Nay]

30. THIS

[PoliticAverse]

7. The Democrats run a poor candidate in the way that matters for victory purposes...

Last edited Sun Aug 6, 2017, 11:59 PM - Edit history (1)

electoral college votes (it seems a safe assumption that the electoral college won't be eliminated
before 2020).

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. Or the last desperate fix was in. Still don't get how MI PA and WI, all with

positive poll #s for Hillary all fell. Way too much of a coincidence. Maybe one, maybe two...but not all. Meanwhile our PTB suffer over "why we lost, how we didn't listen." all BS to me.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. It's pretty easy to see how...

Those states are generally narrow Democratic wins. Look at Kerry in 2004. He won Wisconsin by .4%. Not 4% - POINT 4% in 2004. He won Pennsylvania by two-points and Michigan was a bit larger (3). In those states, Kerry held multiple rallies in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan up until the final days of the campaign. Hillary held one rally in those states during the final stretch - Pennsylvania the last day of the campaign.

She held that rally because the polls started to indicate things were getting narrower there. Her biggest rally of the campaign, the symbolic end of if (beyond a midnight rally in North Carolina) was in a state the Democrats couldn't afford to lose, but many thought had in the bag. Not Virginia or Florida or Ohio - but Pennsylvania. That was extremely telling but people looked at it as just nothing more than her solidifying support in a state where she should win.

It's not a coincidence. Democrats did a poor job getting out the vote in those states because they took a lot of things for granted. What's worse, she was dinged at the last minute by the Comey Tape. Even the retraction, the announcement there was no investigation days before the election, only brought the issue back to the forefront. It was a bad mix of negative news and the campaign overlooking that area of the country until it was too late.

The problem with those state polls is that there weren't a lot, and what we did have were very close.

The final average of polls in Michigan put Clinton up 4% - but there was only one poll in the final week of the campaign (had Trump +2). In Wisconsin, her lead was bigger - 6.5%, but again, the last poll done there was a week before the election. Her final average lead in Pennsylvania was just 2% and only three polls were done in the final week of the campaign - one had Trump leading, one had Clinton leading and the other showed it tied.

The signs were there. We, like the Clinton campaign I'm sure, just didn't see 'em as clearly as we should have. THEY caught wind of it at the very end, when their internals indicated a shift in those states. By that point, though, it was too late.

We can't just fall back on the idea that the Russians stole it. They played a HUGE role in 2016, but if we're only to believe it was a desperate fix, and we run the exact same kind of campaign, we will lose again in 2020.

[Blaukraut]

8. same way he did last time - with a little help from his friends n/t

[PoorMonger]

9. Only Way I See It...

Is with lots of concerted outside help from Russia and or internal cheating Repubs. That said, I don't know what % chance I'd put on that happening - but I know it's higher than it has any right to be. I try not to think about how they will screw with us ; and focus instead on voter registration efforts.

With their bogus commission happening the Dems ( and frankly every American ) must double and triple check to be sure we don't get erased from rolls. I'm frankly disappointed that hardly anyone is raising the alarm about this as a reality we must confront. Everyone should be watching these developments like hawks to safegaurd our rights as citizens to vote.

[AlexSFCA]

10. many tools at his disposal

he continues to control media narratives; he is in complete control of even DU because we talk about him probably 90% here. He can only be forcefully removed through impeachment. If the economy continues to do well, trump is almost certain to win reelection. This is because the entire corporate world will be behind his back unlike 2016 and his supporters are the most loyal ever. A new war is always a possibility. But more than anything, it is the low turnout of democratic base. Make no mistake we are facing increasing republican majorities in house and senate post 2018, additional right wing SC nominees, endless federal court judges appointees, and the very real prospect of trump reelection in 2020 culminating in succesfull convesion from liberal democracy to autoritarian oligarchy.

[JI7]

11. same as 2016 . Russia, Voter Suppression , shit media

[Cicada]

12. He exploits his opponents vulnerability

Bobby Truesdale had good grades, good test scores but he lost his spot at Harvard because Elizabeth Warren supported special breaks for less qualified special interest people.

Tom Perez wants borders open to vicious MS13 gang members.

Etc

[liquid diamond]

13. Continued infighting among democrats.

Single issue voters sitting out the election because the democratic nominee doesn't agree with them 100 fucking percent of the time. The democratic nominee being honest and telling the alt-left that they won't get free shit. The right using abortion, the death penalty, racism, gun rights, and immigration to divide us.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. surely they have learned from letting this lunatic in???

[sunonmars]

14. He doesnt, regardless, he had some indy support in 2016, not now and even repubs will drop him

[Laura PourMeADrink]

15. His ace in the hole is if the stock market soars and unemployment drops low. I

Personally, can not imagine why he doesn't talk about it every day (albeit Obama's push to get it going).

My 401K has gone up 50% - Still not what it was after the first crash - but I have to admit....

That said, heard an economist say that the market will rise until the end of 2017. thinking about arranging some kind of notice to immediately shift to cash on a moments notice. Or, taking out the gain.

All that said, I am one of the lucky ones. What he is doing to everyone not so lucky is criminal and I hope he goes away in cuffs for a very long time. And please take Ivanka and Kelly Ann with you. Kelly Ann must be close to retirement because I can't imagine any decent person ever hiring her again.

[Casprings]

28. That is the problem...

He has done or passed no major economic changes, but will get credit for what is basically happenstance.

[BigmanPigman]

18. I wish I hadn't read this before bed since now I will have endless nightmares.

[Doodley]

19. He (and the GOP) will demonize a very strong candidate, as they did with HRC

[struggle4progress]

20. My advice to him for 2020? Defect to Moscow

[Orcrist]

21. Like this

First, all of his base sticks with him because they spend all 4 years with their fingers stuck in their ears screaming "Fake News".

Second, the nominated democratic candidate is instantly rejected by the far left of the party because of an essay he/she wrote in third grade entitled "I Want a Pony". Well obviously a candidate who once favored horse slavery is totally unacceptable to them and they begin to threaten a boycott of the general election unless we switch candidates.

Third, celebrities like Susan Sarandon and Rosario Dawson will fly back in from the French Riviera; switch back into "Average Joe Just Like You Mode" then go on every TV show that will book them claiming they cannot support such a terrible person who supported horse slavery as a third grader and neither should you.

Fourth, CNN and MSNBC, for reasons that cannot be explained, will give Green Party candidate Jill Stein 4 uninterrupted, rebuttal free, hours to ramble on about what a flaming piece of shit the Democratic candidate is and how, if we elect them, they plan to infect all our children with syphilis and gonorrhea via contaminated vaccinations. After which she will fly back to Russia and be filmed sucking Putin's cock at a dinner party again which neither network will ever speak of.

Fifth, by 2020 voter suppression in republican controlled states will have reach the point where no one will be allowed to vote unless they can prove at least one of their ancestors fucked a confederate soldier during the Civil War.

And Finally, to insure no funny business with this election Trump will approve and oversee the replacement of voting machines in key battle ground states like Florida and Ohio with new machines from a factory outside of Petrozavosk. The Zhul'nichestvo 3000 series will be impervious to tampering by anyone in America.

And there you go. Four more years.

[Rincewind]

22. We run Bernie Sanders.

[CozyMystery]

27. He'll be 79. A lot of people won't vote for him because of that. So, I agree.

[Lil Missy]

23. Help from a rogue nation

[Kentonio]

24. A war or major terror attack are the obvious two.

Mueller coming back and saying he found nothing would be another, although that seems wildly unlikely. Apart from the first two though, it would probably require us to completely shoot ourselves in the foot, pick a dreadful candidate and remain divided.

The orange idiot should never have come close the first time, if we let him do it a second time we have no-one to blame but ourselves.

[Vinca]

25. I don't think anything has to happen that would "cause" his victory.

If Trump is the candidate in 2020 and wins, it will be because Republicans put party over country and Democrats stayed home from the polls . . . again.

[virtualobserver]

26. His disapproval rates would have to stop rising

He would have to stop behaving like Donald Trump. Good luck with that.

[crazycatlady]

31. a divided Democratic party

Where supporters of the non winning primary candidate(s) choose to vote 3rd party or stay home because their candidate didn't win the primary.