Qatar is a serious Crisis

[JCMach1]

Last edited Sat Jun 10, 2017, 11:42 AM - Edit history (1)

Similar to the Saudi invasion of Bahrain during the Arab Spring. The GCC (KSA and UAE mainly) are inching closer to invading Qatar. Reading Gulf papers, I have never before seen the kind of things that are going on.

It is also important for Americans and.those of us on the left to understand while the Qatari's are no angels, the Saudis beef with Qatar is essentially that they refuse to actively support the dictator Sisi in Egypt and refuse to kill AL Jazeera.

Trump is supporting his new BFF the Saudis in all of this nonsense despite the fact our main regional military base is in Qatar. It will also come as little shock that the Russians will benefit heavily strategically and monetrarity from the chaos. Europe will become more dependent on Russian NG. Plus, chaos will drive energy prices north.

I would put the odds at 50/50 the GCC will invade Qatar.

[HipChick]

1. K&R..For visibility...

[kentuck]

2. kick

[roamer65]

3. Problem is Turkey and Iran are allying with Qatar.

Another problem is Israelis are siding with KSA, UAE and Egypt. If war breaks out, the Israelis will then have their long desired air corridor to Iran.

[JCMach1]

10. Qatari military is small compared

To KSA and UAE. Unless the US actively objected because of our base, it is almost a walkover... like Bahrain. There is very little Turkey and Iran can do.

[gademocrat7]

4. Dolt45 needs to be impeached.

Putin's puppet.

[still_one]

5. That is in the hands of the republicans until 2018 since we don't have the majority. Also, even if

did occur, the lines of succession from Pence to Ryan do not change anything

Elections have consequences

[karynnj]

6. Scary times - Thanks for your post that concisely captures so many factors so clearly

It is also mindblowing that the President undercut Tillerson's effort to try to calm things. That Trump has claimed credit for the mess shows that he completely does not get how complicated the relationships are there.

In the Obama administration, we saw how this complexity meant that our President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense had to very carefully balance positions to push for the least bad alternatives. This sometimes meant that they had to soft pedal our values on many issues to deal with the most disruptive issues.

It is terrifying that Trump is all in for Saudi Arabia - just because it treated him like a king, let him play with a sword, and touch a giant lighted orb ... and donated money to Ivanka's foundation. (No conflict of interest there!) That this happens after Obama stepped back on supporting SA because of their actions in Yemen shows that he could be putting the US in positions completely against both our interests and our values.

With our having a huge base there and Turkey saying that they will support Qatar, the GCC invading would be a nightmare. Trump is really playing with fire here -- and the world as a whole could get burned.

[suffragette]

35. + 1,000

[Towlie]

7. And on top of all that, nobody's sure how to pronounce it!

[heaven05]

13. cutter, cuttar

is the pronunciation according to every source I googled.....

[Blue_true]

27. I have heard both. But you seem right on how it is basically pronounced.

I don't feel that Trump thinks for one minute about the consequences of opening his mouth, or of his tweets.

[tblue37]

15. Stress on first syllable. nt

[grantcart]

8. with 10,000 US troops in Qatar the chances of BCC invading are zero

No country, especially counties that fight global climate change areangels but Qatar should be admired for its independence, it's support for Al Jazeera, it's multiculturalism ( less than 50% of its population is Arab).

It's main sin however is that they don't automatically oppose Iran and automatically support Saudi Arabia.

Their independence from SA is why we put the forward command for the air force there.

Qatar has invested billions in order to do their part in the fight against terrorists. Trump's lies that it supports terrorism is an example of his ignorance and willingness to repeat whatever the Saudis told him.

[JCMach1]

11. Obama allowed the Saudis to invade Bahrain despite

Our fleet stationed.there. Anyone think Trump.would try to.stop.his. new.bros in Riyadh?

[Igel]

28. That would be the invasion requested by the Bahraini government

and sanctioned by the GCC?

I assume that the protest movement was given honorary sovereignty, so that putting it down is to be considered a coup. And we call the Russian troops requested by Assad a "Russian invasion" of Syria.

[grantcart]

29. You just make up crap that you think sounds good, completely against the known facts in the case

The GCC did not invade the country of Bahrain, they went to support the existing government to suppress demonstrators against the Sunni dominated ruling family. The US didn't have forces located in Bahrain so your illustration is 100% off point. The Saudis will do everything they can to harm Qatar but they will not invade and your assertion that it is 50/50 is ridiculous.

As to your assertion that Obama green lighted the Saudis into Bahrain is 100% in contradiction to the facts.

Read the NYT article on the subject

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/middleeast/15saudi.html

The Saudi effort to support the Al Khalilfa family who invited them in (meaning it wasn't an invasion). The invasion came after the Obama administration had pressured the Bahrain government to remove its military and allow demonstrations (which were linked to the Arab Spring) to continue and to engage the reform movement.

The Saudi move was made without any US approval and the facts. After criticism by the US of Saudi actions the Saudis cancelled the upcoming trips of both Clinton and Gates.

The Obama administration continued to push for domestic human rights reforms (like they did in Bahrain) telling them that they would not be immune from domestic pressure for reform and engaging now would be better for everyone. Despite selling the Saudis more arms than any previous US administration the Saudis turned hostile to the Obama administration PRECISELY because the US didn't green light Saudi moves into Bahrain, they didn't parrot Saudi bigotry against Iran, the Obama administration continually pressured SA on improving human rights.

You may participate in other forums where biased lies against the Obama administration go unchallenged but not here. Your statements regarding the Obama administration are contrary to the known facts and your characterization of the Saudi Arabian led intervention as an "invasion" rather than an invitation by the Bahrain ruling party to put down the public demonstrations that the Obama administration had pressured them to allow is really Trumpian at its core in reversing the facts in an attempt to slander President Obama.

[JCMach1]

33. Existing minority dictatorship

Being supported.by other dictatorships.

From the people's perspective it was invasion plain and simple.

[JCMach1]

34. So the US 5th fleet and command is not a presence?

Something makes me think a threat from the fifth fleet could have stopped any troop movement across the bridges into the country. At the very least their presence could been used to force peaceful negotiations.

But that's hindsight. It didn't happen.

[Hobo]

37. Just for the record

The UAE is less than 15% Emirati. Bahrain is only 50% native. All three countries has low native populations.

Hobo

[grantcart]

40. Yes all of the former British colonies have a very large percentage of Indian and Pakistani

populations who they brought in large numbers to run the bureaucracy and the railroads, etc.

Malaysia also had less than 50% native population but they brought in large number of Chinese workers there.

When the British left Malaysia the Malay population had about 25% of the county's wealth in their hands.

[UCmeNdc]

9. Need a Democratic party majority in the house in 2018

Even if the US does that it may be a little too late to right the sinking ship. The GOP is destroying the United States.

[JCMach1]

12. On top of this. Turkey is deploying 3000+ troops

To their new base in Qatar.

So it is a very complicated situation.

Acually.not so complicated it's just the high watermark of the Reactionaries to the Arab Spring. Riyadh is throwing a tantrum.

[judesedit]

14. Drumpf kisses the butts of the leaders of the people who attacked us on 9/11

That right there tells you he's a traitor pos

[riderinthestorm]

16. K&R! nt

[judesedit]

17. Angels watch over our troops and the innocents who will be affected

I believe in karma. And I hope these bastards get everything they so justly deserve

[Strelnikov_]

18. Yep

Russia benefits in higher prices/demand for their product.

Saudi's get to control a major natural gas (LNG) exporter.

Situation is as explosive as an LNG tanker . . .

". . gas fields that account for more than 13% of the global resource. . . . Qatar's proved reserves of gas are the third-largest in the world, exceeding 250 trillion cubic feet."

[AlexSFCA]

19. No win situation

It is fairly obvious that the main objective of stirring up conflict in Qatar is to shoot up oil prices. Russia sanctioned hackers planted fake news facilitating the conflict. Also putin wanted to shut down al jazeera for a long time.
If and when trump is impeached and the US turns against Russia, we also may be witnessing a full blown war. Putin won't stop now.

[DFW]

23. Once again. Both sides are trying to draw us into a no-win conflict. If we play, we lose

Obama said the same thing about Syria five years ago: while the humanitarian situation was heartbreaking, he said, he had asked Putin to cooperate on a solution 2 years before (i.e. 2010), and Putin told him (in essence) to fuck off. Now (i.e. 2012), it was a very nasty civil war with about five different factions, all of whom hate each other, and all of whom hate us (the USA).

Obama recognized back then that if we get drawn into it, we lose. The same is the case now, too. Putin is already salivating over the prospect of Turkey leaving NATO and becoming his patsy (Erdoğan would be more like a pet rattlesnake, but Putin isn't fazed by that). Qatar would be icing on the cake.

[dchill]

20. K&R.

[bora13]

21. oil or armageddon?

there are those in the Republican party who prefer oil, and those who prefer armageddon and oil, or just armageddon.

Either way that has been their set of goals for years.

Now they are perfectly poised to steal oil and/or start their onslaught on Israel.

Whether in-directly or "accidently."

I've heard the born-agains talking about how Israel must be destroyed for jeebus to come back, and they really mean it.

[fantase56]

22. k&r

[Nitram]

24. The president and his secretary of state have diametrically opposite views on Qatar.

That they are both expressing to the world at the same time. This administration is incompetent, reckless and dysfunctional

[oasis]

25. Will Speaker Ryan give Trump (R) a pass on this one too? He's new at this.

[dae]

26. K&R. Great points thanks for the OP.

[grantcart]

30. Your opening premise is without a factual basis

During the Arab Spring non Sunni groups in Bahrain joined with large peaceful demonstrations which the government responded with a large government presence.

The Obama administration pressured the government to withdraw government troops after 3 weeks of harassment. When the crowds began to alarm the government they invited the Saudi Arabians in, so in no way was it an invasion and in no way is it similar to the current action where Qatar has invited in 10,000 US troops to support the largest and most advance Forward Command in the Middle East and with its support of EL Jazeera remains one of the most open societies in the ME.

In the threads you also incorrectly bash the Obama administration by saying that they OK'd the Saudi move into the Bahrain.

This is a complete lie.

The US did not agree with the Saudi move (after all why would they agree to Saudi troops if they had already pressured the Bahrain government to remove their troops).

The Obama administration not only criticized the move but also lectured the Saudis that they should engage the reform movement in SA and address its deplorable human rights record.

Immediately after this public disagreement the Saudis cancelled the upcoming official visits of Sec Clinton and Sec Gates.

The US criticism of the Saudi led movement in Bahrain remained one of the key points of contention between the Saudis and the Obama administration and one of the reasons they are so happy with Trump. He will buy all the Saudi lies about Qatar, Iran and the Palestinians and give them carte blanche to do whatever they want.

[JCMach1]

32. Bahrain was on the verge of a peaceful revolution

You might want to disuss how it wasn't an invasion with some of the Bahraini opposition.

That Last bit was a joke as it has been jailed, tortured, or exiled.

Obama dropped the ball on the Arab Spring. Sorry, but one of the bigger failings of his 8 years. The Reactionaries won, not democracy. That's just the reality of the situation.

And yes, I take it a bit personally as I had a student who killed by Sisi and the military in Egypt. She was a jounalist. I also had several former students arrested and tortured in Bahrain.

[Mosby]

38. The arab spring was an arab failure, obama had nothing to do with it

It was the Egyptians for example that elected a terrorist group to lead the country.

Bahrain is just one of many sunni dictatorships, but in their case 75% of the pop is shia. You don't seriously think that a sunni monarchy is going to voluntarily give control over to shia/Iran?

Al Jazeera has been beating up KSA, Egypt and the UAE on air for a long time now, all while they ignore human rights abuses in Qatar (like the thousands of construction "workers" >slaves< that are dying to get the country ready for the world cup) and those countries are sick of it. That's what this is about.

Eta if we have learned anything from Iraq, Libya and the Arab "spring" it's that some folks are not ready for democracy.

[grantcart]

39. Well your right if the meaning of words have no meaning

You are equating a military force that is against the established government as the same as a military force that is done with the established government.

Your gratuitous and completely inverted malicious slander against President Obama reveals all that people need to know about your character.

Obama forced the Bahrain government to send the troops to the barrack angered the Saudis who sent their troops into Bahrain against the wishes of the US government. The Saudis reciprocated with a public rebuke of the administration.

The insults to President Obama had nothing to do with your point but an effort to snow those that are unfamiliar with the region that you are conversant with the facts, which you are not, except that the government of Bahrain did have a military operation from Saudi, one they requested and embraced, exactly opposite to your main point.

There are sites where gratuitous and false insults to President Obama will be tolerated and they would welcome your factual inebriation and your patronizing dismissal of the President's considerable achievements.

Your reference to people you may or may not have been familiar with who died are a sentimental shiny object that don't make your lies about President Obama more valid.

I lived in the region, worked in the region, saw thousands of refugees die and my former colleagues were killed in this attack by Al Queda. None of those things change the facts of the situation, which you have bungled, or the anti Obama nonsense you have inserted for no valid reason, more or less valid.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-blast-idUSBRE94N0EM20130524

[workinclasszero]

31. "It will also come as little shock that the Russians will benefit heavily strategically and

monetrarity from the chaos."

No surprise at all. Putin is getting his money's worth from puppet Trump.

[AntiFascist]

36. The nautural gas is in Iran and Qatar...

Russia sees an opportunity to build a pipeline through Syria to make billions off of the increasing demand for NG in Europe, which is likely their reason for supporting Assad. Western allies support terrorism in Syria to block Assad. This looks like an interesting article:

http://www.debka.com/article/24578/Assad-loses-battles-as-US-Israel-Turkey-Jordan-Qatar-and-UAE-arm-Al-Qaeda%E2%80%99s-Syrian-branches

Now Republicans like Dana Rohrabacher are calling for supporting terrorists against Iran?!

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=9186548