Opinion: THE RISKS OF TRUMP'S STRIKE ON ASSAD IN SYRIA

[SummerSnow]

http://www.newsweek.com/assad-trump-bomb-syria-putin-russia-obama-sarin-chemical-weapons-iran-580319


Trump's strike is far riskier than one would have been under Obama because of the presence of Russian troops and military hardware—including sophisticated anti-aircraft units—in the country. “There obviously needs to be a healthy fear of great powers clashing,” says Schanzer. Moscow doesn’t advertise just how many troops it has now in Syria, but analysts estimate around 10,000, and that includes special forces units, some of whom are now embedded with fighters from Iranian Republican Guard Corps and with Hezbollah. Assad’s forces have been so weakened during the war, in fact, that both Russian and Iranian troops are now threaded throughout the Syrian military—even at Assad’s air bases, including the one from which the sarin attack was launched. “At this point there is no meaningful difference between the Syrian military, Hezbollah and Iranian forces. They’re acting as one,” says Jennifer Cafarella, lead intelligence planner at the ISW.

So for Trump, not only does Thursday's strike carry considerable risk, so does any further military action. The Pentagon is now mulling a no fly zone, to prevent Syrian air attacks against the rebels. But Moscow has air defense and strike aircraft in Syria as well, and while Russia and the U.S. set up a “deconfliction line”—precisely because they’re both operating in the country—there still have been close calls and mistakes: six months ago the U.S. struck a Syrian troop position when it thought it was hitting ISIS fighters. More than 60 people died.

Another option for Trump would be creating safe zones in the country, something many have long called for. These safe zones have their own risks since they would need to be constantly defended from the air. One possibility: setting up a safe zone near the Iraqi border in southeastern Syria, far from where Russian and Iranian troops are operating, and where the U.S. has been hitting ISIS targets.

The complications of striking Assad are such that they may require diplomacy with Moscow. U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has already tried shaming the Russians in the wake of the sarin attack, an effort to prepare the battlefield at the Security Council for a resolution condemning Assad. But any overture to get the Russians to back off their support for the regime (they have said in the past that their support is not “unconditional”) will be more difficult now because of the anti-Moscow, “they stole our election” hysteria in Washington.

Whether drawing another red line has made things better or worse is entirely unclear.

[yallerdawg]

1. But "we" have been talking to the Russians for a while...

and they knew what time we would launch the missile strikes and where.

Of course, that is not collusion, is it?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Trump has probably stepped in it again.

One could reasonably argue that it is necessary to try to stop Assad's atrocities, but I'm afraid that, as usual, they've acted precipitously - to show they're doing something - but like so many things Trump does, it seems like they fired before aiming. OK, we cratered an airstrip. Now what? Trump doesn't ever seem to understand complex situations, and this one is more complex than most; with few, if any, upsides.

And where is his BFF Putin in all this? Was this just a relatively minor military action that was really intended mostly for domestic consumption, to "prove" that Trump can be tough on Russia while he continues his back-channel footsie-playing to cover his dodgy financial dealings?

I don't trust any of this. There will be blowback, but what?

[KingCharlemagne]

4. "To send a message" If I hear that line one more time,

Last edited Fri Apr 7, 2017, 06:33 AM - Edit history (1)

I'm gonna

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. Yeah, it's bullshit. There's no message.

[KingCharlemagne]

3. Its World War I with nukes. USA! USA!

USA!

[Solly Mack]

5. Yes. A lot can happen now in terms of backlash against the U.S..

We'll see.

I am holding my breath and have been for weeks now.