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Tracking Matthew folks - what if he does not turn North (Original Post) malaise Oct 2016 OP
Just woke up (California here) Iliyah Oct 2016 #1
We're been preparing for a week malaise Oct 2016 #2
Stay safe! This one sounds awful! redstatebluegirl Oct 2016 #61
He will. B2G Oct 2016 #3
Not yet malaise Oct 2016 #62
The 72 and 96 hour points Gman Oct 2016 #4
Last night the GFS trended way west B2G Oct 2016 #7
Good news for us - really bad news for Haiti malaise Oct 2016 #10
Yeah, that was my other thought Gman Oct 2016 #18
This is frightening malaise Oct 2016 #26
Good luck down there, Malaise! MineralMan Oct 2016 #5
Thanks bro malaise Oct 2016 #27
What then is......me dixiegrrrrl Oct 2016 #6
Nah - no GOM say the experts malaise Oct 2016 #11
Link to a Jamaican radio station B2G Oct 2016 #8
Power is pretty good malaise Oct 2016 #9
Historically many of the storms that travel south of Cuba turn north at the Yucatan csziggy Oct 2016 #12
Hope we're both lucky malaise Oct 2016 #13
Take care, Malaise, and stay safe csziggy Oct 2016 #14
'Jamaica in Hurricane Matthew’s cross hairs' Baclava Oct 2016 #16
So which hurricane is it that went right by Cancun/Cozumel? Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #17
Wilma in 2005 csziggy Oct 2016 #22
That's not the track I'm looking at. Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #23
Those are composite historical tracks csziggy Oct 2016 #24
Hmm. I'm misreading it again. Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #25
Found them. Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #32
Thanks! I did some looking but didn't have the time to hunt allthe way through. nt csziggy Oct 2016 #34
A news article mentioned the eerie similarity to Hazel, Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #36
It looks as though Matthew is slowing to make its turn north csziggy Oct 2016 #37
We look relatively safe. Ms. Toad Oct 2016 #58
Slowing down on it's westward march. OnlinePoker Oct 2016 #15
2mph - damn! malaise Oct 2016 #20
Stay safe, malaise. kentuck Oct 2016 #19
Ivan looked just as bad and turned West at the malaise Oct 2016 #21
Rain and wind will be the problem but we're on the safer side of malaise Oct 2016 #28
It's a monster! kentuck Oct 2016 #30
That it is malaise Oct 2016 #31
do stay safe! chillfactor Oct 2016 #29
Storm is nearly stationary greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #33
Oops! greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #35
yep - he made his turn to the North Baclava Oct 2016 #38
He's still going Northwest malaise Oct 2016 #39
Seems to be undergoing an EWRC B2G Oct 2016 #40
a little wobble wobble to the west now, slowing down to 3 mph Baclava Oct 2016 #41
It almost looks like two centers - is that usual? Be safe, malaise. suffragette Oct 2016 #42
I'm no expert malaise Oct 2016 #43
Masters is saying it's unusual, too. suffragette Oct 2016 #44
Here com the outerbands - lightning and thunder to boot malaise Oct 2016 #45
I'm so glad you stocked up and prepared for this. suffragette Oct 2016 #46
We're as secure as possible - we'll ride this out malaise Oct 2016 #48
Glad for that. suffragette Oct 2016 #54
The real problem is that Matthew is now crawling at 4mph malaise Oct 2016 #56
Scary when lightning and thunder is the relative calm before the storm. suffragette Oct 2016 #64
Hang in there! BumRushDaShow Oct 2016 #47
Thanks malaise Oct 2016 #49
That blob is feeding off the Tradewinds. Nt B2G Oct 2016 #50
Does that happen often? suffragette Oct 2016 #55
Definitely with intense storms. nt B2G Oct 2016 #66
That Blob greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #65
I hope that you, your family and everyone on Jamaica avebury Oct 2016 #51
Thanks malaise Oct 2016 #52
Stay safe, malaise. mia Oct 2016 #53
Thanks for the link malaise Oct 2016 #63
I have been thinking of you all weekend Jeanette in FL Oct 2016 #57
Hi there malaise Oct 2016 #59
Back at ya! Jeanette in FL Oct 2016 #60
It has turned North titaniumsalute Oct 2016 #67
Stay safe malaise greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #68
DR and Haiti will get the worst of the rain and wind malaise Oct 2016 #69
Looks like it's going to miss ya! run N straight up the middle and stay over water for the most part Baclava Oct 2016 #70
They say we're getting a 10ft surge in Kingston malaise Oct 2016 #71
You should be OK from the worst of it , I told ya the waiting is the hardest part Baclava Oct 2016 #73
Yep - downgraded to Tropial Storm Warning now malaise Oct 2016 #74
Unless it taks a jog west greytdemocrat Oct 2016 #72

malaise

(267,834 posts)
2. We're been preparing for a week
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:05 AM
Oct 2016

Shutters will go up later today. The impact will begin sometime late tomorrow - we're hoping for the eye to miss us but are as ready as we can be for whatever comes our way.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
3. He will.
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:16 AM
Oct 2016

Most likely late tonight or early tomorrow.

But the when and how sharp of a north turn is going to make all of the difference.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
7. Last night the GFS trended way west
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:38 AM
Oct 2016

It runs again in 20 minutes...should be interesting.

It's wild how far apart the GFS and Euro were last night.

malaise

(267,834 posts)
26. This is frightening
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:29 PM
Oct 2016

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25
inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic, and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
6. What then is......me
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:34 AM
Oct 2016


and we know the damn things can be very unpredictable.

They poor folks in Louisiana must be going thru PTSD even this early.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
8. Link to a Jamaican radio station
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:47 AM
Oct 2016

Posting this in the even Malaise loses power so those who are so inclined can hear what's happening down there.

I've listened in the past...they have very good coverage.

http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
12. Historically many of the storms that travel south of Cuba turn north at the Yucatan
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:55 AM
Oct 2016

Then loop back to the east coming in between New Orleans and the Big Bend of North Florida:

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=historical

I'm keeping a close eye on Matthew. Tallahassee was already hit by one hurricane this year - Hermine came in the Thursday before Labor Day weekend and I was without power and water for five days. (Some friends lent me their generator when they got power back and let me use their shower but it was still an inconvenient situation.)

Historically the chances of two hurricanes hitting here are low but since the climate is changing past events are not a reliable indication of what might happen.

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
14. Take care, Malaise, and stay safe
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:02 PM
Oct 2016

I hope everyone in the path of Mathew will be safe! Matthew looks to be a nasty storm.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
16. 'Jamaica in Hurricane Matthew’s cross hairs'
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:07 PM
Oct 2016

"The Government will do what it can; it will do its part, but I have to appeal to the individual responsibility of each and every Jamaican to look out for your own safety and security ...Heed the warnings that are given from the Government, particularly warnings to evacuate” he urged.

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/High-alertMet-Service-says-Jamaica-in-Hurricane-Matthew---s-cross-hairs_75725


do what you have to do to stay safe - good luck

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
17. So which hurricane is it that went right by Cancun/Cozumel?
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 01:40 PM
Oct 2016

I'll be there Thursday, unless Matthew doesn't turn . . .

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
22. Wilma in 2005
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 04:49 PM
Oct 2016


Wilma wasn't as strong as far east as Matthew is and it turned back east earlier than many storms that take the south of Cuba track. For more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
23. That's not the track I'm looking at.
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:47 PM
Oct 2016

There are three in the map in post 12 that start where Matthew started; one of those three went through the gulf, then up across the US. That's the one I'm asking about.

Wilma swung back out into the ocean, rather than up across the US. Katrina took a similar path across the us, but hit Florida on the way in, rather than starting down near South America.

(My first trip to Cozumel was shortly after Wilma.)

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
24. Those are composite historical tracks
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:03 PM
Oct 2016

"Tracks of all October Category 3 and 4 Hurricanes within 2 degrees of Matthew between 1851 and 2015." Weatherunderground does not name the particular storms that created the tracks.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
25. Hmm. I'm misreading it again.
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 06:26 PM
Oct 2016

I read it as there being only 3 (or perhaps only 2) October Category 3 and 5 Hurricanes in that time period, within 2 degrees of Matthew, shown by the three (2?) tracks (rather than being a composite).

Why would they choose to create three composite tracks for a larger number of hurricanes? I can't see that would be much use to anyone.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
32. Found them.
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 09:14 PM
Oct 2016

Hazel (the track that goes East of Florida)



and an unnamed hurricane in 1915 that passed betwee Mexico and Cuba and hit Louisiana.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
36. A news article mentioned the eerie similarity to Hazel,
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:30 PM
Oct 2016

So once I had one of the two, I knew the other made landfall in Louisiana in October. It didn't take too long after that, since there weren't that many.

I guess seeing the two paths makes me feel a bit better. Without minimizing the destruction Matthew is likely to leave in its wake - my last year has been a personal hell (three chronic/major illnesses, including cancer). I desperately need the diving break I have planned for Cozumel this week.

csziggy

(34,120 posts)
37. It looks as though Matthew is slowing to make its turn north
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:37 PM
Oct 2016

So I hope you have a good vacation in Cozumel.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
58. We look relatively safe.
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:08 PM
Oct 2016

The dive resort we're staying at called us yesterday to reassure us that (1) Matthew isn't headed their way and (2) we should come even if it does . . .

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
15. Slowing down on it's westward march.
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:06 PM
Oct 2016

Looks like it's close to making the turn north. Good thing is, hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles so major damage will be concentrated in a narrow band. Not great if you're in that band, though.

malaise

(267,834 posts)
31. That it is
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 07:52 PM
Oct 2016

It's way bigger than Gilbert but Gilbert steamed through from Morant Point to Negril crushing everything in the way. It will b very bad for lots of people on our island.
One of my siblings suggested that we head for Miami for a week and I askedd her of she wanted us to greet Matthew in Florida - we is so afraid and they survived Andrew.

greytdemocrat

(3,299 posts)
33. Storm is nearly stationary
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 10:29 PM
Oct 2016

For now. Looks like it will miss you
which is a good thing. Still lots of rain
I bet.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
41. a little wobble wobble to the west now, slowing down to 3 mph
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 12:24 PM
Oct 2016

when they get this big they take on a life of their own

malaise

(267,834 posts)
43. I'm no expert
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:36 PM
Oct 2016

but it looks unusual. We've prepared and aren't taking any chances. We're not leaving here until Matthew is finished doing his thing.

suffragette

(12,232 posts)
44. Masters is saying it's unusual, too.
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:54 PM
Oct 2016


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/matthew-stalls-and-weakens-but-expected-to-head-north-threat-to-us
All factors considered, a Category 3 hurricane at landfall Monday night is probably the most likely scenario. It is unknown what role, it any, the unusual blob of heavy thunderstorms that has persisted on Matthew’s east side might play in the future evolution of the storm. If this intense area of thunderstorms remains intact through Monday night, it could result in catastrophic rains for Haiti.


I guess odd blobs are the new normal. We have the hot water Pacific blob over here which seemed to go away, but was just hiding in the ocean depths before re-emerging. Now you have extra thunderstorm blobs joining with a hurricane.

Good thoughts to you!

malaise

(267,834 posts)
45. Here com the outerbands - lightning and thunder to boot
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 02:59 PM
Oct 2016

Time for some fresh coconut water and nuts. It's going to be a rough ride if this i sthe beginning - serious lightning - heavy rain.

suffragette

(12,232 posts)
46. I'm so glad you stocked up and prepared for this.
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:05 PM
Oct 2016

I know it's just thoughts reaching out through electrons, but we are all here for you.

malaise

(267,834 posts)
48. We're as secure as possible - we'll ride this out
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 03:10 PM
Oct 2016

for the next few days. There is no wind with the outer bands where we are in St Andrew.

malaise

(267,834 posts)
56. The real problem is that Matthew is now crawling at 4mph
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:01 PM
Oct 2016

That's a recipe for mud slides.

Masters says threat to the US has increased
Matthew Stalls and Weakens, but Expected to Head North; Threat to U.S. Increases
<snip>
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3457
Longer-range track forecast for Matthew: risk increases to U.S. East Coast
Over the past two days, our two best computer models have been trending towards a more westerly track for Matthew late this week, increasing the odds that Matthew will make a direct hit somewhere along the U.S. East Coast. Sunday’s 00Z European model and 06Z GFS model had Matthew coming very close to or making landfall in North Carolina 6 - 7 days from now. As one can see from the latest set of ensemble model runs (Figure 4), just about any location along the East Coast could potentially see a hurricane landfall this week. Since the hurricane is expected to be moving roughly parallel to the coast, a long stretch of the coast may receive strong winds and heavy rain from Matthew. We do have three decent models predicting a path for Matthew well away for the U.S. coast late in the week, though—the HWRF, Canadian and GFDL—so it is not yet a foregone conclusion that Matthew will impact the U.S. coast.

suffragette

(12,232 posts)
64. Scary when lightning and thunder is the relative calm before the storm.
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 06:21 PM
Oct 2016

And not good that it is moving so slowly.

Better that bad boy should scoot on through quickly.

Jeanette in FL

(3,356 posts)
57. I have been thinking of you all weekend
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:06 PM
Oct 2016

Been thinking of you all weekend while watching this storm. Hope that it stays east of you. Stay safe my friend. What a storm Matthew is! Came on to DU and was glad to read your updates. Keep the coming and thanks for the radio/media links. Will be listening! Jeanette in FL

malaise

(267,834 posts)
59. Hi there
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:09 PM
Oct 2016

Looks like the most you'll get is a swipe on your East coast. We're as ready aswe'll ever be.

I see Ben Kennedy is all over Kingston

Jeanette in FL

(3,356 posts)
60. Back at ya!
Sun Oct 2, 2016, 05:18 PM
Oct 2016

We are back down in West Palm Beach, so we have been watching closely. Looks like it will stay east of us. Rain and wind, I hope. It has been over 11 years since we have had anything down here. Who is Ben Kennedy? LOL

greytdemocrat

(3,299 posts)
68. Stay safe malaise
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:30 PM
Oct 2016

The huge amount of rain being
recorded is amazing. One weather station
in the DR recorded 5.33 inches in 1 hour.

malaise

(267,834 posts)
69. DR and Haiti will get the worst of the rain and wind
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:41 PM
Oct 2016

We expect 10-20 inches of rain which is a lot of rain over two and a half ways. Just steady rain now.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
70. Looks like it's going to miss ya! run N straight up the middle and stay over water for the most part
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 04:19 PM
Oct 2016

Bad news for the Bahamas, 15 ft storm surge predicted

malaise

(267,834 posts)
71. They say we're getting a 10ft surge in Kingston
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 04:31 PM
Oct 2016

We'll see - we're just waiting for whatever and since Matthew is 195 miles SE of Kingston moving at 5mph, that's quite a wait. Guess more outer bands will move in later but there has been no heavy rain in my part of St Andrew today and no lightning and thunder since yesterday.

greytdemocrat

(3,299 posts)
72. Unless it taks a jog west
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 06:07 PM
Oct 2016

you guys should be fine except for flooding. The
Bahamas on the other hand...

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