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Could Cat 5 Hurricane Matthew be the October surprise (Original Post) malaise Sep 2016 OP
This message was self-deleted by its author kestrel91316 Sep 2016 #1
We're as ready as we can be malaise Sep 2016 #2
Thinking of you dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #27
We're laughing at the thought of a Cat3 malaise Sep 2016 #33
Batten down the hatches and let DU know you are okay! mfcorey1 Sep 2016 #34
The power company will shut down malaise Sep 2016 #66
Latest spaghetti plots jberryhill Sep 2016 #3
Max Mayfield is on it as well malaise Sep 2016 #5
Who is Max Mayfield???? n/t dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #50
Max Mayfield was head of the NHC during Katrina malaise Sep 2016 #72
This one is scary malaise Sep 2016 #7
My money is always on the European model. NightWatcher Sep 2016 #10
Yeah. You and Donald Trump. jberryhill Sep 2016 #11
Try the veal. Tip your waitress. NightWatcher Sep 2016 #19
Good pitch jberryhill Sep 2016 #25
Florida is now in the cone malaise Sep 2016 #55
ROFL malaise Sep 2016 #23
** Snort ** dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #28
Heeee!. . .n/t annabanana Sep 2016 #35
Yep. The local weather people have been tweeting for a few days Kingofalldems Sep 2016 #4
I wonder what they're doing about Gitmo malaise Sep 2016 #6
Maybe the remaining guys will do a runner and integrate into Cuban society Hekate Oct 2016 #86
You may already know about this site canetoad Sep 2016 #8
I bookmarked it a while back malaise Sep 2016 #9
You might like this one also. Lochloosa Sep 2016 #14
Thanks malaise Sep 2016 #16
Wow! That gives a powerful picture of the storm! mfcorey1 Sep 2016 #37
Play around with it. It's got some cool features. Lochloosa Sep 2016 #39
Sent it to several friends malaise Sep 2016 #74
Nice. Stay safe Lochloosa Sep 2016 #75
bookmarked, thanks. . .n/t annabanana Sep 2016 #36
That is a fantastic map AND you move it around for better views!!! dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #51
Forgive my ignorance - I've lived in a tornado alley or two - Ms. Toad Sep 2016 #12
Up to three days out its pretty accurate. Lochloosa Sep 2016 #15
You should be fine Warpy Sep 2016 #18
You're good to go malaise Sep 2016 #21
Stay safe! WhiteTara Sep 2016 #13
Thanks malaise Sep 2016 #24
Mid-September to the end of October is the peak season for hurricanes 1939 Sep 2016 #17
To be fair there more tracks showing it going out to sea than hitting the East Coast ProudToBeBlueInRhody Sep 2016 #20
St Lucia had 10 inches of rain with 60mph winds malaise Sep 2016 #22
No deaths...but they got some landslides...main road from airport is blocked.. HipChick Sep 2016 #30
Stay safe sis malaise Sep 2016 #42
That does not look good mcar Sep 2016 #26
Does not look good malaise Sep 2016 #29
Stay safe, sis. suffragette Sep 2016 #31
Thanks sis malaise Sep 2016 #41
I saw a video of a woman staring at a tornado and commanding it to stop dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #52
Friend of mine worked in a call center for an internet provider in the 90's OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #57
Well I think there will be more folks on Ward 21 next week malaise Sep 2016 #65
More than a few like her in these parts malaise Sep 2016 #64
I'm glad you take them seriously and prepare appropriately. suffragette Sep 2016 #63
Hang on! Are_grits_groceries Sep 2016 #32
Thanks Grits - hoping he stays away from your side next week malaise Sep 2016 #43
batten down my friend.. annabanana Sep 2016 #38
LOOKOUT! Matthew Rapidly Intensified to a Category 2 Hurricane Baclava Sep 2016 #40
Hope the Cat3 prediction flops malaise Sep 2016 #44
Intensity predictions are notoriously poor, but this one seems to be gaining strength fast Baclava Sep 2016 #45
Matthew is a serious hurricane malaise Sep 2016 #46
yeah - the waiting is the hardest part - they come and they go in a day - hope power stays on! Baclava Sep 2016 #47
This morning we went for our usual walk malaise Sep 2016 #48
I for one would love to see pics of where you are. dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #53
Don't forget to fill your freezer with water bottles! I have a bottle of mango rum in mine now Baclava Sep 2016 #70
Love it malaise Sep 2016 #71
Now Cat3 OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #49
What an eye! Baclava Sep 2016 #54
Now Cat 4 malaise Sep 2016 #56
That was quick. OnlinePoker Sep 2016 #59
From tropical wave to Cat 4 malaise Sep 2016 #61
I was very alert upon noticing they had said it would be a hurricane right after it was ...born dixiegrrrrl Sep 2016 #68
Batten down the hatches---stay safe malaise! panader0 Sep 2016 #58
There goes the coffee crop malaise Sep 2016 #60
..and Heads Up S. FL! Baclava Sep 2016 #62
Just saw RIck Scott warning FLoridians to pay attention malaise Sep 2016 #81
Watching the cones BumRushDaShow Sep 2016 #67
No need tol panic, but everyone from the Keys to Nova Scotia should have a plan Ex Lurker Sep 2016 #69
Kingston and St Andrew better have a plan and yes we do but malaise Sep 2016 #73
You be buried under the spaghetti! Nothing wrong with a little panic. Baclava Oct 2016 #84
I suggest... ReRe Sep 2016 #76
We'll be fine malaise Sep 2016 #77
OK... but I'll still worry about you. eom ReRe Sep 2016 #78
Awwwwwwwwwwww malaise Sep 2016 #79
Photo inside the eye of Hurricane Matthew: Kingofalldems Sep 2016 #80
This is crazy malaise Sep 2016 #82
Strongest hurricane ever B2G Sep 2016 #83
We'll be fine malaise Oct 2016 #85
Haiti may e hit by a Cat4 tonight - first time in history malaise Oct 2016 #87
God. B2G Oct 2016 #88
It's a monster malaise Oct 2016 #89
I just looked it up. OnlinePoker Oct 2016 #90

Response to malaise (Original post)

malaise

(267,801 posts)
2. We're as ready as we can be
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 04:54 PM
Sep 2016

Now we have to wait it out until Sunday/Monday.
At lunch time I went in the yard to speak with a plumber and the birds were making an unbelievable noise. I told my neighbor and the plumber to get ready - they are way ahead of us.
Thanks kestrel91316 - we may suffer some inconvenience - compared with the poor and homeless, we're the lucky ones.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
33. We're laughing at the thought of a Cat3
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:09 AM
Sep 2016

and we know that no laughing matter. This poor fugging island cannot take a Cat 3 hurricane. We will survive - sure inconvenience will follow - this is really bad news.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
66. The power company will shut down
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:16 PM
Sep 2016

as the storm approaches to prevent people from electrocution but I'll let DUers know asp.
Waiting to see if Jim Cantore has landed

US Embassy just announced that it will be closed Monday and Tuesday.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
72. Max Mayfield was head of the NHC during Katrina
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:13 PM
Sep 2016

He was begging people to leave New Orleans and I mean begging.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
55. Florida is now in the cone
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 04:36 PM
Sep 2016

Damn

Here's Masters' take on next week

Matthew’s anticipated landfall over Jamaica/Cuba/Haiti on Monday will weaken the storm, due to the high mountains it will interact with. This process may completely disrupt the inner core of Matthew, reducing the storm to Category 1 or 2 strength for several days, as it traverses The Bahamas. The storm may be able to re-intensify to major hurricane status in 2 - 3 days, though, over the exceptionally warm waters surrounding The Bahamas. If the GFS model is correct, Matthew will not punish The Bahamas for multiple days, but will instead march northwards just offshore the U.S. East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the 00Z Friday run of the UKMET model suggests that the trough of low pressure pulling Matthew to the north will be too weak to continue doing this next week; high pressure will build in on Tuesday, forcing Matthew on a more northwesterly track through the heart of The Bahamas to a point perilously close to South Florida by Thursday. The five members of the European model ensemble that most closely match the operational run over the first 72 hours (Figure 6) have two members that go along with this idea. NHC has put the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Matthew very close to Miami, and it appears likely at this point that South Florida will experience at least the fringes of Matthew, with some heavy rains, if not a direct hit. In addition, the GFS and European ensembles suggest that Matthew could move quite close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina late next week.


https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3452

Hekate

(90,189 posts)
86. Maybe the remaining guys will do a runner and integrate into Cuban society
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:13 AM
Oct 2016


Seriously, I hope everyone in the region stays safe.

canetoad

(17,088 posts)
8. You may already know about this site
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:26 PM
Sep 2016

https://earth.nullschool.net

Global map of world winds in (almost) real time. Click bottom left 'EARTH' for options such as mean sea level pressure, waves etc.

Stay safe.

Ms. Toad

(33,915 posts)
12. Forgive my ignorance - I've lived in a tornado alley or two -
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 05:39 PM
Sep 2016

but not in the path of a hurricane. Both are destructive, but I don't have a clue how to predict hurricanes (or assess how accurate the projections might be).

I'm headed to Cozumel a week from today - it looks as if it (1) will be somewhere north of there by then and (2) not likely to get near it. Is that likely to be accurate? (I expect the timing is slightly more predictable than the path?)

Warpy

(110,901 posts)
18. You should be fine
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:59 PM
Sep 2016

Matthew will be past the area and the wave currently SW of the Cabo Verde Islands might not amount to anything.

If you are in a multi floor concrete hotel, you will survive but you might get wet and have to sit in the hall, away from windows.

What always surprised me the most about every hurricane I've been in is how LOUD the damned things are and it lasts for hours.

NOAA is usually the most accurate projection. They've gotten really good at it in recent years.

1939

(1,683 posts)
17. Mid-September to the end of October is the peak season for hurricanes
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 06:48 PM
Sep 2016

but "October Surprise" and the "Karl Rove Weather Machine" make for good CT speculation.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
20. To be fair there more tracks showing it going out to sea than hitting the East Coast
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 07:01 PM
Sep 2016

Obviously the Islands should brace themselves.

HipChick

(25,485 posts)
30. No deaths...but they got some landslides...main road from airport is blocked..
Thu Sep 29, 2016, 10:41 PM
Sep 2016

and I need to get up to the North of the island

malaise

(267,801 posts)
41. Thanks sis
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:16 AM
Sep 2016

I'm amazed at how many people don't take these hurricanes seriously.
We went to the market and more than a few folks were planning to blow the storm away through prayer.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
52. I saw a video of a woman staring at a tornado and commanding it to stop
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:45 PM
Sep 2016

"in Jesus' name".

She appeared quiet convinced that would work, until her husband, who was filming the oncoming tornado, dragged her to the basement.

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
57. Friend of mine worked in a call center for an internet provider in the 90's
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:03 PM
Sep 2016

He got a call from someone in Oklahoma complaining that their internet was down. When he brought up the status page for the area, it indicated there were tornadoes around there and he relayed that to the complainant. The guy said "Yah, I can see one out across the field right now". My friend had to tell this person to hang up the phone and get into shelter immediately. Some people lose all common sense when it comes to serious weather emergencies.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
65. Well I think there will be more folks on Ward 21 next week
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:12 PM
Sep 2016

when cell phones and the internet stop working. I think many will walk the street gazing at their blank phones with blanker faces

suffragette

(12,232 posts)
63. I'm glad you take them seriously and prepare appropriately.
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:58 PM
Sep 2016

I still remember an old post of yours about salt eggs

I see downthread that it's already become much stronger.

to you, my friend.

Are_grits_groceries

(17,111 posts)
32. Hang on!
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 02:07 AM
Sep 2016

I know you are always prepared. We study the weather like shamans looking for small portents.
Always have.

annabanana

(52,791 posts)
38. batten down my friend..
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:11 AM
Sep 2016

and check in now and again..

And if you lose power, check in as soon as you can!

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
45. Intensity predictions are notoriously poor, but this one seems to be gaining strength fast
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:37 AM
Sep 2016

eyewall forming




malaise

(267,801 posts)
46. Matthew is a serious hurricane
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 10:46 AM
Sep 2016

We've done what we're supposed to do - will put up the shutters on Sunday.
Nature rules - we have to work around her.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
47. yeah - the waiting is the hardest part - they come and they go in a day - hope power stays on!
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:04 AM
Sep 2016

Good luck and stay safe!

malaise

(267,801 posts)
48. This morning we went for our usual walk
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:06 AM
Sep 2016

and took pictures of our beautiful trees. I remember all the trees that fell during Gilbert - they return in full in about seven years.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
53. I for one would love to see pics of where you are.
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 12:52 PM
Sep 2016

We lost a favorite and quite old oak tree during Ivan.
It was at the edge of my driveway and covered both my front yard and the neighbor's front yard.
One day I watched a hawk glide thru the branches, just missing the squirrel he was after.

Really quite sad it was gone; I love these old oaks.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
70. Don't forget to fill your freezer with water bottles! I have a bottle of mango rum in mine now
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:55 PM
Sep 2016

Just in case

malaise

(267,801 posts)
71. Love it
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:04 PM
Sep 2016

Yep - water, beer and white wine are chilling or freezing - we've filled the house with fresh fruit

malaise

(267,801 posts)
61. From tropical wave to Cat 4
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:14 PM
Sep 2016

Where is Jim Cantore? ABC Florida is on their way.
I wish them luck because I swear that Palisadoes road to Norman Manley airport will be the first casualty.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
68. I was very alert upon noticing they had said it would be a hurricane right after it was ...born
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:51 PM
Sep 2016

coming off Africa.
Usually that is not done.

Wondering if it is our turn to meet all those over heated storms this season.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
62. ..and Heads Up S. FL!
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 05:52 PM
Sep 2016

Don't trust the cone at this point - these things take on a life of their own when they get this strong






US East Coast on alert for potential impacts from Hurricane Matthew

BumRushDaShow

(127,297 posts)
67. Watching the cones
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:36 PM
Sep 2016

and hoping for the best for you!

They are thinking it may turn out towards Bermuda before it gets this far up the coast but will monitor in any case. It's been bad enough around here with that Low sitting off the coast of MD/DE/NJ. It pumped over a foot rain so far in parts of Delaware today.

Ex Lurker

(3,808 posts)
69. No need tol panic, but everyone from the Keys to Nova Scotia should have a plan
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 06:54 PM
Sep 2016

GFS is showing Matthew as a Category 5 raking the east coast next week

malaise

(267,801 posts)
73. Kingston and St Andrew better have a plan and yes we do but
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 07:45 PM
Sep 2016

this has never happened - I fear for Port Royal, St Thomas, all of the Kingston waterfront and Portmore, Then I fear for those squatting in the mountainsides and hills for we're expecting 8-24" of fugging rain and hurricane winds. If Kingston gets a direct hit, there will be a massive loss of life. That Palisadoes road to the airport is on my mind.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
From Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3453
The threat to the Greater Antilles from Matthew is becoming increasingly worrisome. The most immediate concern is for Jamaica, where a Hurricane Watch has been posted. The latest NHC outlook brings Matthew over the eastern tip of Jamaica on Monday afternoon. A westward shift of just 50 miles--well within the range of uncertainty at this point--would put the city of Kingston in Matthew’s dangerous right-hand side. A major hurricane striking Jamaica from the south would be a virtually unprecented event. Figure 5 shows the tracks of all major hurricanes passing over or very near Jamaica since 1851. All of the prior events involved storms tracking on a classic west-northwest path except for an unnamed 1912 hurricane that crossed the northwest tip of the island on a northeast path, then made a 180-degree turn. Among all hurricanes since 1851 (not shown), the only one to have crossed Jamaica on a primarily northward track during the last 80 years is Sandy (2012), which struck eastern Jamaica at Category 2 strength. Sandy caused an estimated $100 million in damage in Jamaica and knocked out power to most of the island. Matthew could be much stronger than Sandy, and a northward-oriented path through central Jamaica could bring a severe storm surge into the highly vulnerable Kingston area.

ReRe

(10,597 posts)
76. I suggest...
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 09:27 PM
Sep 2016

... you and yours (and all DUers in the path, for that matter) batten down your hatches and then high-tail it out of there to parts west and north until it passes out of your area.

 

B2G

(9,766 posts)
83. Strongest hurricane ever
Fri Sep 30, 2016, 11:32 PM
Sep 2016

At that latitude.

Looks like it's going to start an EWRC. I'm seriously getting concerned for you Malaise.

malaise

(267,801 posts)
85. We'll be fine
Sat Oct 1, 2016, 05:12 AM
Oct 2016

I'm concerned for the poor and vulnerable - there will be a massive loss of life and property

malaise

(267,801 posts)
87. Haiti may e hit by a Cat4 tonight - first time in history
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 07:33 PM
Oct 2016

and they can't handle a Cat1.

Bumping this thread because it may well be an October surprise

OnlinePoker

(5,702 posts)
90. I just looked it up.
Mon Oct 3, 2016, 09:13 PM
Oct 2016

They've been hit by two Cat 4's in the past, Flora in 1963 and Cleo in 1964, both coming ashore on the south-western peninsula.

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