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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPoll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump neck and neck in Florida
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in Florida, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll that finds Clinton with 43 percent support and Trump with 42 percent.
It looks like a Women are from venus, men are from Mars election: She leads Trump by 13 points among women, and he leads Clinton by 13 points among men.
Republicans weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clintons historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men, Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
Quinnipiac's April 27 through May 8 telephone poll also surveyed likely voters in Pennsylvania and Ohio, finding Clintin leading 43 to 42 percent in Pennsylvania, and Trump leading Ohio 43 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error in each poll was plus or minus 3 percent.
Read more: http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-neck-and-necck-in-florida/2276667
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)Those are two critical swing states.
We are picking the candidate who could actually lose to this dangerous idiot.
UtahJosh
(131 posts)I'm starting to really become ashamed of being a white man!
pampango
(24,692 posts)Donald could not have done it without us as his base that he could rely on, then trick smaller numbers in other groups to put him over the top.
apcalc
(4,465 posts)Vogon_Glory
(9,137 posts)I suspect that this is going to be a weird year. The Democrats are going to win in states where they'd lost for the last 20 years or so, but some of the states Team Donkey carries might flip the other way.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)pnwmom
(109,024 posts)numbers are anyway, because they change over time, and with different elections -- as we have seen in Florida in the past.
And the results are very different from a poll about a week ago.
So who knows, but this looks odd to me.
ON EDIT:
I just found registration #'s from 2014.
GOP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)NPA/third party number over 40%. It's been steadily growing. Dems slightly outnumber Rs, but both well under 30%.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)Otherwise you're just blowing the usual hot air.
RockaFowler
(7,429 posts)That is a weird sample
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)GOP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/
0rganism
(23,989 posts)if there are 30% Republicans in the area of the survey, and they somehow end up with a 40% republican sample, the R responses will be multiplied by 3/4 to normalize them to the population.
i strongly doubt the pollster is reporting raw, unadjusted numbers.
what i think is happening is HRC is actually underperforming at this point in the campaign; she will probably be able to turn that around post-convention if she can avoid saying stupid shit about various American industries.
that said, Florida has given us some really batshit election results over the last 16 years, and HRC has to campaign like Gov. Voldemort is going to have his thumb on the scale.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)When they did that, the percents were almost identical for Dems, R's, and Indies.
So that still didn't give an accurate picture, because voter registration numbers show there are a substantially higher number of Dems than Rs, and the no-party people are far behind both.
So this study over sampled for R's and Indies.
https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/sfl05102016_demos_Sw4b42d.pdf
AFTER WEIGHTING, the percents were 32% Dem, 32% Rep, and 31% indie.
Which does not reflect the registered voters as of 2014:
REP, less than 4.2 million
DEM, more than 4.6 million
no party, less than 2.8 million
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/08/chuck-todd/florida-no-party-voters-are-growing-question-why/
0rganism
(23,989 posts)a turnout model where both R and D turnouts are depressed, and I is through the roof...
if that turnout model is at all plausible, we are in deep dark shit. all hail president Trump.
or the folks in charge of that poll fucked up royally.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)The justification for only weighting things like gender, age, etc. is that they know what proportions exist in the population, whereas party affiliation can change over time in unpredictable ways.
So they only weighted for those other groups, and that had the effect of giving a new weight to party memberships. For example, they had too many men in their first sample, so when they weighted for gender, that reduced the weight they had been giving to GOP.
But not enough. And Indie was still too high. So they ended up with numbers that seem too far off from reported party affiliation.
But remember -- it all started with having too many men (for example). That was just a fluke of the random sample -- it won't be true of the General election. That's why it's better to have multiple polls, as at 538 or RCP.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)No Party Affiliation is only part of the Indy vote, which is over 40%.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)showing that Florida has 40% Indy? Because Florida reports it having 2.8 million, as opposed to 4.6 for the Dems and 4.2 for GOP.
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)Romney was ahead in all 3 in polls in 2012 and McCain was ahead in Florida and Ohio in May 2008. And Sanders has similar results in these polls as well. This doesn't really fit with the overall shape of the race showing Sanders and Clinton up by double digits nationally and traditionally republican states like Georgia and Arizonia also being ties. I guess we will have to see how things play out in the next month or so.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)Ohio and Trump is leading there against Hillary, but at the same time is losing against Bernie.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)against Bernie. So his current status doesn't say much for how he'd do once they got started on him.
Do you think ads calling him a socialist and a commie are going to increase his appeal among Cubans in Florida, for example?
B Calm
(28,762 posts)carry much weight anymore.
pnwmom
(109,024 posts)B Calm
(28,762 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)apnu
(8,759 posts)Before being startled. Bernie is still in the race and the Left hasn't accepted Hillary right now. Bernie is losing and progressives are processing that right now. That's got to shake out before any poll shows a hint of reality.
napkinz
(17,199 posts)Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Munches popcorn.
apnu
(8,759 posts)The make up of the state is in flux. All the northern retirees, growing Latino population, and deep south crackers and other sundry southern conservatives... the place is a mess.
napkinz
(17,199 posts)the outcome
Proud Public Servant
(2,097 posts)And that was closer to the '88 election than this poll is to November 8. Y'all really need to chill with teh polling this far out; it tells us nothing.
runaway hero
(835 posts)Hillary has to step this up. Trump has power in the midwest and south, like it or not.