A quick estimate, how likely it is for Trump to win the national election:

[DetlefK]

Starting-point: Trump needs 51 out of 100.

70% of women (~55% of the electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 38.5% of all votes, but let's round it down to 30%.
-> That's about 30% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 70% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 70.

90% of Latinos (~15% of electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 13.5%, but let's round it down to 8% and half of them are already accounted for as women.
-> That's about 4% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 66% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 66.

70% of African-Americans (~10% of Electorate) have an unfavorable opinion of Trump.
That's 7%, but let's round it down to 4% and half of them are already accounted for as women.
-> That's about 2% of the total vote he will never-ever get. 64% remains.

-> Trump needs 51 out of 64.

About 64% of the electorate would definitely or maybe vote for him. And out of those, he would need 51% of the total electorate.

Even under a most generous estimate, he would need to win 80% among the subset of voters who view him favorable or are undecided.



Now let's go with an estimate that is more pessimistic for Trump but still realistic:
Women: 35% of the popular vote he doesn't get.
Latinos: 5% of the popular vote he doesn't get.
African-Americans: 3% of the popular vote he doesn't get.

The subset of voters who view him favorable or are undecided would be 57% of the popular vote. Out of those he would need 51%.

Under this estimate, he would need to win 89% among the voters who view him favorable or are undecided.

[Kittycat]

1. Depending on who our nominee is

I don't think unfavorable in any category is going to help estimate anything. Two of the three left have the worst favorable of any candidates knwkn to ever run for office. And worse yet, one is under FBI Investigation for legitimate issues, and the other is in the midst of a lawsuit over his fraudulent university.

It will be a bloody race to the bottom.

[phleshdef]

2. You need to look at that from the point of view of swing states.

We already know where Trump is gonna definitely win and our nominee is going to definitely win.

But swing states like Colorado, Nevada and Florida with big Hispanic voting blocks, he is screwed. I don't see him taking Ohio or PA either. After Obama's elections, we have a pretty awesome firewall.

[Ex Lurker]

3. You have to drill down to the state level

A lot of those African Americans and Hispanics are in Texas. They may not vote for Trump, but the white voters, male and female, will overwhelmingly vote for him. He will get all those electoral votes, regardless of what his percentage is.

OTOH, in California, the white vote is much more evenly divided, and will combine with other voters to give the Democrat, presumably Hillary, all of California's electoral votes.

Most states will vote very predictably, and it will come down to a handful that can go either way.

[DetlefK]

7. Just FYI: I do have a life besides DU.

I will NOT break it down to state-level.

[Lurks Often]

4. It's going to boil down to who the voters hate more

and this is almost certainly going to be the ugliest, nastiest presidential race in history.

[titaniumsalute]

5. I like your analysis...however

the general vote does not win elections. Electoral votes do. For the most part the states with the most electoral votes have higher levels of Latinos or urban areas such as Florida, Illinois, California, Colorado, Michigan. Trump really needs to win Florida to win this thing and I'm not sure he can do that.

[Hoyt]

6. The white - yearning for apartheid South Africa - culture will vote for Trump

An economic or "terrorist" scare will serve him well. Myopic Sanders' supporters - who stay home or vote for someone with no chance or believe Trumps' promises like they have Sanders' - won't help.

I think he has a chance. And Clinton is the one to kick his rear.

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

8. An infinitismally small number that approaches zero

[Jerry442]

9. All that assumes the game board won't get knocked over.

Another 9/11 or a Yitzhak Rabin moment and we're talking an utterly new reality.

[fasttense]

10. The voting machines are rigged

Who ever the Oligarchs choose is who you are going to get as president.

[Jerry442]

11. In my mind's eye there's this big Looney-Tunes "Cheat" switch somewhere... NT

[fred v]

12. As likely as Nicole Kidman sleeping with me tonight

[Bernardo de La Paz]

13. Trump will choose 2-4 SCOTUS Justices if Democrats dont Get Out the Vote

[Gothmog]

14. Trump has alienated a number of key demographic groups