Ronald Brownstein on 6 keys to who will win in 2016:

[CaliforniaPeggy]

https://www.nationaljournal.com/editorial/ronald-brownstein

Scroll down the page to read his column.

An excerpt:

1. Who wins the battle for con­trol of the Re­pub­lic­an Party?

Once again, the GOP is di­vid­ing between white-col­lar, cen­ter-right “ma­na­geri­al” voters and “pop­u­list” voters drawn from the over­lap­ping circles of work­ing-class whites and evan­gel­ic­al Chris­ti­ans. When those two blocs have di­verged be­fore, the man­agers’ pref­er­ence (think John Mc­Cain in 2008 and Mitt Rom­ney in 2012) has usu­ally pre­vailed. But this year, no can­did­ate has con­sol­id­ated the ma­na­geri­al wing, and the race’s two front-run­ners are anti­es­tab­lish­ment pop­u­lists re­ly­ing mostly on blue-col­lar (Don­ald Trump) or evan­gel­ic­al (Ted Cruz) voters. Many party strategists fear that neither can­did­ate could win the gen­er­al elec­tion. The primar­ies will de­term­ine if the GOP’s ma­na­geri­al main­stream can unite to seize the nom­in­a­tion, or if the party will leap in­to the un­known with Trump or Cruz.

2. Can Demo­crats re­as­semble the “co­ali­tion of the as­cend­ant?”

That’s the term I coined in 2008 for the groups that un­der­pin the mod­ern Demo­crat­ic elect­or­al co­ali­tion: mil­len­ni­als, people of col­or, and col­lege-edu­cated, single, and sec­u­lar whites, es­pe­cially wo­men. Those groups are grow­ing in the elect­or­ate, and if Demo­crats can turn them out and main­tain their re­cent ad­vant­ages among them, Re­pub­lic­ans could win the pres­id­ency only by amass­ing daunt­ingly high mar­gins among all oth­er whites. But it re­mains to be proven wheth­er Demo­crats can en­er­gize those groups as ef­fect­ively as they did with Pres­id­ent Obama on the bal­lot. Po­lar­iz­ing pro­pos­als from the GOP front-run­ners could help mo­tiv­ate them, but front-run­ner Hil­lary Clin­ton draws sur­pris­ingly tep­id rat­ings from some of these con­stitu­en­cies. One re­lated wild card is the con­tin­ued ten­sion between Afric­an-Amer­ic­ans and mostly Demo­crat­ic big-city may­ors over poli­cing prac­tices. This could de­press black turnout from its re­cord high when Obama ran.

[Katashi_itto]

1. But but but I thought the Hill had AA votes sewn up!?

[CaliforniaPeggy]

2. I don't know if she does or not. I guess it depends on who you ask.

[Ex Lurker]

3. Well they're not going to vote for Trump or Cruz

But they may not vote at all.

[SoCalDem]

4. And that's how we get President Trump