Wisconsin polls all say the same thing: GOTV

[Playinghardball]

A new poll released this morning by the Greater Wisconsin Political Fund says Scott Walker and Tom Barrett are each preferred by 49% of the voters surveyed, and that independents are now breaking toward Barrett by a 5 point margin. It's a poll that was commissioned by a group that supports Barrett. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Plus or minus means it could be anywhere from 53/45 Barrett to 53/45 Walker (I'm ignoring the tiny undecided segment and the independent candidate.) In other words, it's a statistical tie.

This afternoon another Wisconsin poll, this was done by Charles Franklin for the Marquette University Law School, showed a preference for Walker over Barrett 52/45. The margin of error is 4.1%. That means the range is somewhere between 56.1/40.9 Walker to 49.1/47.9 Barrett. From the notes accompanying the Marquette poll:

<snip<
It's exciting to read the polls and gasp when it shows that Walker "increased his lead" or that Barrett "narrowed the gap", but statistically speaking, these polls have shown the same thing every time. All we've learned today is that nothing has changed and that Barrett has an excellent chance to win if we can get Democratic voters to the polls.

>snip<
Want proof? Let's see how the Marquette poll did predicting the outcome of the May 8th Democratic primary. The survey was conducted 10 days before the primary, so there were a lot of undecideds, but when leaners were forced to choose here were the results:

Tom Barrett 45%
Kathleen Falk 23%
Doug La Follette 8%
Kathleen Vinehout 8%
Would not vote 7%
Undecided 6%
Don't know/Refused 3%

Margin of error 3.8%

>snip>
So what's my point? Simply this. The newest Marquette poll says Walker by 7, but Barrett can win and the Marquette poll could still be "right" because polls only give you a prediction that the final vote percentages will fall into a rather wide range.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/30/1095927/-Wisconsin-polls-all-say-the-same-thing-GOTV

[MineralMan]

1. GOTV is always crucial. And never more so than

in a recall election. It is incredibly difficult to recall a sitting governor. Only two governors have been recalled since 1911. Unless the turnout is huge from the side wanting the recall, it's almost impossible.

Walker is in office due to low turnout. Can that be reversed? I hope so with all my being.

[malthaussen]

2. It's really a no-brainer

What has amazed me over the years is how successful the Republicans have been in mobilizing their minority vote. This wasn't always the case. Setting aside all the real problems of voter fraud, untrustworthy polling machines, and election district supervisors who find 12,000 "misplaced" votes, the bottom line is that the Republicans get off their bottoms and vote. If the Democrats would do the same, there would be no contest.

-- Mal

[MineralMan]

3. Yup. And turnout is going to be crucial in November, as well.

There are state legislators and people in Congress who are up for election. Turnout will make the difference in who has control of state and federal legislatures. That should have been a lesson learned from the disastrous 2010 elections, when Republican legislators won far more seats than they should have.

GOTV efforts are the most effective activism individuals can engage in. I hope every DUer steps up to that plate and swings for the long hit. If not, I'm very concerned about the results. I'll be out there, hitting away.

Note: Please excuse the blatant baseball metaphors.

[malthaussen]

4. I'll excuse the baseball metaphors...

... but not the batting instructions. Right now, I think the most important thing for the Democrats to do is get men on base.

-- Mal

[MineralMan]

5. But, we need runs, too, if we're gonna win.

I'm hitting away, I tell you. There are two guys on base already.

[malthaussen]

6. Two men on base?

There are? Tell me quick, who are they? (This is where the metaphor breaks down)

-- Mal