Polls may actually underestimate Donald Trump’s support: study

[Douglas Carpenter]

Tribune News Service
21 Dec 2015 at 12:29 ET

December 21, 2015
David Lauter
Tribune Washington Bureau
Posted with permission from Tribune Content Agency

By randomly assigning people to the three different approaches and running all at the same time, they hoped to eliminate factors that might cause results to vary from one poll to another.

The experiment confirmed that "voters are about six points more likely to support Trump when they're taking the poll online then when they're talking to a live interviewer," said Morning Consult's polling director, Kyle Dropp.

Social-desirability bias — the well-known tendency of people to hesitate to confess certain unpopular views to a pollster — provides the most likely explanation for that education gap, Dropp and his colleagues believe.

Blue-collar voters don't feel embarrassed about supporting Trump, who is very popular in their communities. But many college-educated Republicans hesitate to admit their attraction to the blustery New York billionaire, the experiment indicates.

That finding suggests that the online surveys, which show Trump with a larger lead, provide the more accurate measure of what people would do in the anonymity of a voting booth, Dropp said. That might not be as true, however, in a public setting such as the Iowa caucus, where people identify their candidate preference in front of friends and neighbor.

http://www.rawstory.com/2015/12/polls-may-actually-underestimate-donald-trumps-support-study/

[Proserpina]

1. That's what I'm afraid of

[Fumesucker]

2. Which is why Hillary will not be a good matchup for the Donald in the general

Authentic asshole bully vs inauthentic Camp Weathervane? Hillary has so many places Trump can go and you can bet he has expert oppo research on her, he may act the fool but that's just an act.

What we need is authentic mensch to go up against the authentic bully.

[1939]

4. Rahm Emanuel?? NT

[CJCRANE]

3. A lot of liberals are sleepwalking. They don't see what the rest of the world sees.

The chaos in Libya and Syria has degraded America's credibility on the world stage.

The strange spectacles of the ultra-PC crowd has also destroyed America's soft power abroad.

A lot of liberals are living in a bubble that is getting smaller and smaller as the expression allowed is restricted more and more. Censorship is promoted and sources mocked rather than issues addressed.

It reminds me of the Freepers and Fox News viewers in the Bush era who enforced groupthink and tried to quell dissent.

This is not the DU of the early Bush era which was curious, skeptical, contrarian and brave.

[Fumesucker]

5. I think most of those aren't actual liberals

Look who's showing their colors in the gravedancing threads...

[frizzled]

6. I whole heartedly agree

Unfortunately I think the pendulum is going to swing back, hard, before your view point is accepted. The loonies are running the asylum.

[Douglas Carpenter]

7. There is no doubt that America's military interventions in the Middle East

as well as the mainstreaming of anti-Muslim bigotry in American society has massively weakened our soft power in the Middle East and elsewhere. That is obvious to every thinking person.

But that still does not explain how bizarre behavior by a casino/gambling magnet who declared bankruptcy multiple times and absconded on hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions from investors - from the mocking a Republican regarded as a war hero to pathologic lying that is indisputably provable lies to openly bigoted and racist hate mongering to vulgar sexual innuendos makes Trumps popularity only rise and rise and rise especially among white Evangelical Protestants.

[Katashi_itto]

14. Republicsns spent 30 years dumbing down the public

With Fox News and we generally just stood by. Now we even have our version of conservatives in our ranks. See the gravedancers here.
Even if trump were not to win this breed of teabagger on steroids will not be going away.

[Ichingcarpenter]

8. Exit polls, Internet polls, Landline polls and even our electonic voting machines

Have thrown the whole polling validity in questions

Exit Polls: I had two semesters in Political Science on polling, exit polls, statistics validity, , reliability etc. back in the mid 70s ..... Exit polls were very accurate until we got electronic voting machines..... example 2000 and 2004 elections

Internet Polls,
Have some validity but also suffer from confirmation bias and poorly designed safeguards. TV news propaganda also pushes confirmational bias

Landline polls and cell phones
Who has a landline these days? Also with most show who or what number is calling whereas in the old days you just had to answer the phone and find out
Today some won't even answer when you have caller ID and don't know who the party is


I really don't know anymore ........the caucus system does take out
the anonymity of a voting booth as stated but at the end of that day
we shall see if Trump is stronger or weaker

I think crowd sizes at the candidates speeches in Iowa should also play into the equation of support.or not

[MowCowWhoHow III]

9. It's a real effect with real results

Shy Tory Factor

[Ichingcarpenter]

10. Interesting article

Hadn't heard it called that before but knew it to be true

[enid602]

11. Trump

I have three bible thumping, gun owning right wing relatives who have not mentioned Trump a single time in their Facebook pages during the last 6 months. This past week, however all three have started to quote Trump, and I suspect they'll be 100% on board with Trump any day now.

[Ichingcarpenter]

12. Are they Cruz or Huckabee fans?

that's the religious wing.

[enid602]

21. they were

They were in the past. Two Huckabees, and one Cruz. It'll be interesting to see where they end up. I imagine they're torn, with so many idiots from which to chose.

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. but according to polling - at the national level Trump with his less than

ideal lifestyle according to the norms of fundamentalist Christianity - still way outpolls both Huckabee and Cruz among white Evangelicals. He can't possibly be their model of "family values," - can he?

[RKP5637]

15. Not being religious now, but thinking back ... they used to pound into us kids that

"God works in mysterious ways." Yep, it was CYA for their never ending rationalizations that might not always work. That, was the card in the deck that always worked. Some might 'think?' he's being directed by their god and whatever he says, well, god works in mysterious ways.

[Douglas Carpenter]

16. yes, a thought just did cross my mind as an ex-Fundamentalist-Pentecostal

Donald Trump is not that far off in many ways from an archetypical evangelist. To be fair - by no means all - but many, many of them are. They will be flamboyant, narcissistic, will lie and exaggerate with total impunity, and are frequently womanizers.

Again, in fairness they are not all that way - but so many are that it creates a subculture where narcissism, lying and exaggerating and even womanizing is simply overlooked by people who in theory would be shocked by such behavior. In fact from what I remember from those days long, long ago - the serious religious person who tortured themselves trying to be good were not as welcomed or successful in the Evangelical subculture as the flamboyant narcissist.

[RKP5637]

17. And also often dominant males. Yes, it seems the pattern fits well with them. n/t

[Justice]

18. I recommended so this does OP does not fall. Very important to keep in mind when talking to Trump

supporters or people who are not Bernie or Hillary supporters.

[raouldukelives]

19. One of those horrible thoughts that delays sleep.

That idiots, in a booth alone, with the choices of a real person or a celebrity, will choose celebrity.

Hell, I wouldn't be shocked at this point if Kim K wasn't his choice for VP.

[MrScorpio]

20. Are they saying that there are more crazed and fear driven white voters that we're accounting for?