Wow! New Poll seems to indicate Missouri is in play (Obama up by a point)

[WI_DEM]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/missouri-a-toss-up-for-president.html

Voters in Missouri are not real happy with their choices for President. They don't like Barack Obama. But they don't, as evidenced by the Republican primary results in the state, like Mitt Romney either. That has the state looking closely contested again for this fall just as it was in 2008.

Obama has a statistically insignificant 45-44 advantage on Romney in Missouri, a result basically identical to our late January poll of the state that found the two candidates knotted at 45%. Obama has just a 44% approval rating in the state, with 52% of voters disapproving of him. But Romney's even less popular with only 38% of voters rating him favorably to 50% with a negative opinion. Independent voters strongly dislike both candidates with Obama's approval among them falling at 41/53 and Romney's favorability at 36/46.

Missouri's not likely to be one of the more consequential states in the Presidential election this year. If Obama somehow takes it it will just be the cherry on top of an electoral college landslide, while a Romney win won't get him anywhere close to 270 electoral votes. But the tightness does speak to the landscape in the state being much different than 2010 when Democrats were crushed at the polls and to Romney's weakness with Republicans there bleeding through to the general election.

[libinnyandia]

1. McCain's margin of victory in 2008 was 4000. Nader got 18000. It should be close this time again.

[TheWraith]

2. I'm not surprised.

We came within a fraction of a percent of winning Missouri last time--it's a much closer state than you might imagine.

[BeyondGeography]

3. It's a small thing, but Joplin matters

Watching that speech, and knowing how close Missouri was last time, you could see Obama connecting with a few more people could help make a difference there.

[monmouth]

5. After I watched the President's commencement speech in Joplin, I

had the same thought.

[pstokely]

13. Joplin will probably vote Repuke again

Maybe in lesser numbers

[proud2BlibKansan]

4. I heard recently

that just one more Obama vote at each polling place would have won him the race in MO.

It really was very close.

[Robbins]

6. MO

Also consider Blunt Is more unpopular than Obama.The situation here Is people don't like Romney.Obama has strengths among those
who vote Democratic.I am a MO democrat so I can tell you this Is one state where those lies people spread about Obama some people
accept when people email them charges made about Obama.Plus some wanted a health care reform like those In Congress have.

Remember just being against someone doesn't make you a winner.Few are voting for Romney because they like him.

Back In 2008 Nader got 1 percent of the vote and might have cost Obama a very narrow win here.

Obama needs to contest Missouri to help McCaskill keep her senate seat.

[pstokely]

18. There also might be a house district that could flip

nt

[lobodons]

7. Garden of Eden

And to think that according to Mormon Doctrine, the Garden of Eden is in Jackson County Missouri.

[pstokely]

17. Most of Jackson County is Dem stronghold

Except for Eastern part

[aaaaaa5a]

8. I had heard that if their had been a recount Obama likely would have won MO.

The state was essentially a tie.

This is more good news about November. If a Republican were winning, he would be up 5 or 6. Bush won MO by 7 in 2004. And by 3 in 2000.

[pstokely]

14. Missouri is no longer a deciding state electorally

It also has one less electoral vote due to the census

[aaaaaa5a]

20. Agreed. nt

[JoePhilly]

9. Liberal media: "Is Mitt losing middle America??"

Oh, right ... there is no liberal media ... so no one will mention this.

[missingfink]

10. I hate to throw cold water on this thread ......

but being a resident of the state I can not see President Obama winning in what has become Red territory over the last several elections. STL, KC & the Columbia areas will support Obama but outstate it is a lost cause - too many rednecks and Walmart Republicans. We have a Dem Governor (Jay Nixon) and presently 2 Democratic House districts. With the loss of population, these 2 House districts are being combined into one.

[Sherman A1]

11. Agreed

However, there may be more than one Republican voter who is disenchanted enough to simply stay home or skip voting for the top of the ticket.

[pstokely]

15. Many states where Mittens should be leading by double digits are in play

There seems to be a Mittens enthusiasm gap in many racist birther states

[DCBob]

12. You make it sound like its hopeless.. why??

McCain barely won it in 2008. Polls show it very close now. I think MO is now a battleground tossup state. Lets go for it! If nothing else it will force Rmoney to spend some time, money and effort there.

[pstokely]

16. It's too early for Obama to spend $ in MO

If it it's close in the fall, he spend $ there to put Mittens on the defensive

[TNLib]

19. I wonder how other red states will be affected.

I really think Romney's religion is hard pill to swallow for evangelical Christian voters. I bet they stay home and not vote probably afraid they will go to hell for voting for a heathen.