Trump Would Lose Badly In A Third-Party Bid, But He Could Take The Republican Down, Too

[Capt. Obvious]

Donald Trump is making noise about an independent bid for president. If the Republican National Committee doesn’t treat him fairly, Trump says, he’ll be more likely to launch a third-party run. I don’t know if he is at all serious, but I do know two things: History suggests that an independent Trump campaign would crash and fail; polling suggests that even if that happened, Trump could take the Republican candidate down with him.

Trump received 20 percent of the vote in a hypothetical matchup against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush in a newly released ABC News/Washington Post poll. But, if Trump were to run as an independent, his support would likely fade. Since the first Gallup poll in 1936, there have been five independent or third-party campaigns in which a candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote in early polls. All but George Wallace in 1968 ended up with a lower percentage of the vote than they initially garnered, according to Gallup surveys.

....

Still, third-party candidates who poll well early don’t drop off the map completely. Even John Anderson, whose campaign pretty much collapsed, got more than 5 percent of the vote in 1980. That should be somewhat worrisome to Republicans because Trump would pull most of his support from the GOP standard bearer. In that ABC News/Washington Post survey, Bush dropped from 44 percent without Trump to 30 percent with him; Clinton fell only 4 percentage points (50 percent to 46). That’s a tremendous effect for a third-party candidate.



Only Wallace’s bid in 1968 really upended the popular vote. Even Ralph Nader’s bid in 2000 barely moved the needle because a number of his voters would have backed George W. Bush if Nader weren’t in the race.

....

If Trump does run as an independent, The Donald nightmare may just be beginning for the GOP.

538

[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. I have watched most of his clips and

I have not heard him bring this subject up..so think we and media are grossly overplaying it including the lead post on DU. Sure he has responded when asked but its not like he brings it up. Unless I missed it. All that said..you are right..he wouldn't win as a third and it would guarantee us the WH

[TreasonousBastard]

2. No matter what he claims, Trump doesn't have nearly enough money...

to run his own campaign.

Even if he does have billions, which is doubtful, very little would be in cash and who is stupid enough to lend or give him money for an embarrassing losing campaign? What minor party would want to be associated with him?

A year to build a complete 50 state party organization from scratch? This from a guy who couldn't make money from a casino? Or couldn't run an airline?

[HFRN]

3. that would be all the satisfaction he needs

and in a way, showcase what Bernie is talking about - that the Billionaire class is so dangerous, that a temper tantrum from just one of them can effect the entire nation

[Hoyt]

4. We have our own potential 3rd Party candidates to worry about, even if they say they wouldn't do it.

[Capt. Obvious]

5. What has this place come to when even a thread about our next Troll President

becomes a lame excuse to troll Sanders supporters?

[B_Mann]

6. I wonder why you are called

Capt. Obvious?

Good one.

[UTUSN]

7. R#6 & K for (Shhhhhhh!1) n/t