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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538: Obamacare’s Chances Of Survival Are Looking Better And Better
FiveThirtyEight:When we previewed the case, the predictors at FantasySCOTUS saw it as a 5-4 reversal, with Chief Justice John Roberts essentially sitting on the fence. (A reversal could result in the loss of billions of dollars in federal subsidies that are helping millions of Americans in more than 30 states purchase health insurance.) Now, they see it as a 6-3 affirm in support of the government. (Note, though, that Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy are still seen as on or near the fence.)
Here are the shifts in the predictions over the course of the past few days. The plot represents a rolling average of the last 200 predictions entered by FantasySCOTUS players. The proportion of predicted votes to strike a blow to the ACA fell sharply Wednesday.
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sharp_stick
(14,400 posts)msongs
(67,478 posts)spinbaby
(15,092 posts)We're depending on it to take us through to Medicare.
Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)having bent over backwards to figure out a way to uphold it in 2012.
Also, Kennedy seemed to be strongly leaning towards not allowing subsidies to be withheld from states using federal exchanges even if one assumes that the wording in the act was intended (because this would mean that the federal government was coercing the states too strongly).
I will be utterly, jaw-droppingly gobsmacked if the justices rule in June to halt the subsidies in federal exchange states.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)And who the fuck is 538 to be making predictions on the Supreme Court
DisgustipatedinCA
(12,530 posts)and I think all 9 justices are aware of that.
Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)C'mon people. It was never in any danger. It is so discouraging to see DUers seemingly fall for this charade. They will never let us have another crack at healthcare. For-profit insurance mandates are here to stay.