A. Lichtman on his famous 13 'keys' to the White House, a method for predicting election results that's been right....

[usaf-vet]

..... nine times out of 10.

A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election

He has been called the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). But now he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald

They looked at every presidential election since Abraham Lincoln’s victory in 1860, combining Keilis-Borok’s method recognising patterns associated with stability and earthquakes with Lichtman’s theory that elections are basically votes up or down on the strength and performance of the party that holds the White House.

They (Lichtman and Vladimir Keilis-Borok) came up with 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by AU’s website:
https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-to-the-white-house.cfm

[John Farmer]

1. Some of those true/false questions seem pretty subjective.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. From 2016. NT

[captain queeg]

3. What was the one failure out of 10?

[Midnight Writer]

4. Bush v Gore 2000

[usaf-vet]

5. Bush v Gore....... surprise surprise. To the more recent issue IMMUNITY. Some experts fear tha SCOTUS will try and....

.... give Trump a one-off decision that ONLY applies to Trump and not Biden or other future Presidents.

This is how Bush v Gore was structured. This decision applies only to this case.

SCOTUS wants it both ways—immunity for Trump but not other Presidents. Immunity for Biden might allow him to fire all the RW SCOTUS justices, firing the six and replacing them with progressive justices.

We are in a dangerous place in history. If Trump ever gets back into the WH, it is too horrible to consider.

[captain queeg]

6. Yeah it's pretty scary. Also I'm not surprised about Bush-Gore

Because Gore won that election