General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFacts about any polls that you need to know.
1. We live in the most polarized electorate maybe in our history. Any poll that has an equal number of Republicans, Democrats is basically going to show that the race is essentially tied.
2. Any lead by either candidate has to be well outside the margin of error (MOE) to be taken seriously.
3. The election will be decided by turnout. Polls that rely on self-reporting about a future activity may be unreliable. Who actually votes is something that pollsters struggle to model. It was easier when voters would cross party lines to vote. Today, Republicans who personally despise Trump will still vote for him. See Bill Barr.
underpants
(182,884 posts)If Ive missed or not noticed they were your posts, excuse me.
I dont dismiss polls but I understand that polling is very tough now. Any MOE >3% is not a good poll and shouldnt be published but I also understand the money.
Most of the polls Ive seen recently leave 6-10% as undecided. Thats the whole ballgame. 2% in the ballgame
sop
(10,260 posts)"Donald Trump was slammed by a Republican-voting couple in the Trump stronghold of Roberts County, Texas, in an interview that aired on CNN on Tuesday...Kay and Ron Swart, who voted for the presumptive GOP nominee in 2016 and 2020, agreed Trump has appalling ethics and isnt fit for office."
"Trumps moral character is 'terrible,' Kay Swart admitted to Tuchman. 'It cant get much lower than it is,' she added. 'He continues to make crazy comments about being a dictator his first day and repercussions against people who he feels have wronged him.' Tuchman asked the couple if Trump would be fit to become POTUS again if he is found guilty in one of his four criminal cases. 'I dont think hes fit,' replied Kay Swart, before adding: 'But Im voting for him.'
"Ron Swart, meanwhile, claimed the United States wouldnt survive four more years 'of Democrats in charge.' Trump is 'most definitely' of low character, poor morals and poor ethics, he said. 'I feel as wrong as its going to be to have him for president, hes still going to be a lot better president for the United States than what weve gotten with Joe Biden and the Democrats,' he added."
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/republican-voting-couple-trump-cnn_n_661f7dfee4b0d633765822d9
TwilightZone
(25,485 posts)Yavin4
(35,446 posts)LiberalFighter
(51,094 posts)It doesn't reflect the differences in age brackets. Those in one age bracket might be more liberal or conservative than a different age bracket.
If 1,500 are polled across the country. That means on average 30 are polled in each state. How does equalize when some states are smaller or larger than others?
Pretty Fly
(66 posts)Biden and Trump are tied in the Quinnipiac poll head-to-head (46-46) but when third party candidates are thrown in, it's 37-37.
That means 25% are either voting third party or undecided.
I really doubt come November, the third party candidates get 25% of the vote.