I get the feeling Trump knows he's going to jail for contempt

[Mr.WeRP]

The story broke yesterday that the SS is working with NY prisons to figure out the logistics. I don’t think that is a coincidence with the contempt hearing. Here is what I (and Mrs. WeRP, a lawyer) believe may have happened.

So far, Judge Merchan seems like a pretty efficient and fair judge. He knows Trump has blatantly violated the orders and is in contempt. He also knows that monetary fine isn’t a deterrent. We both expected Merchan to fine Trump with a strict warning that jail is next… but that hasn’t happened.

Why? Because the SS is involved. Merchan is practical and knows the logistics need to be nailed down. As of now, no one has forced this to happen. But we believe the Judge did that yesterday. He may have ordered SS to work with NY State Prisons to find a solution and is waiting to issue his order pending that result.

This may be why Trump and his attorney were passing notes yesterday, why the SS story broke and why Merchan hasn’t ruled yet. It also explains Trump’s 2am post last night crying for Repub politicians to save him.

I can envision the following:

Judge to Trump’s lawyer: inform your client he’s going to jail once the logistics are figured out

Trump’s lawyer passes note to trump: your’re fucked, prepare for Reiker’s

Trump: (shits his pants)

Well, it’s a fun fantasy at the least!

[jcgoldie]

1. what is the source of this SS rumor?

I've seen a few references to SS working with NY to work out details, but have yet to see a link to where people are getting this. Not doubting the rumors are out there just wondering the source.

[Mr.WeRP]

4. This is the top one on a google search

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/US/secret-services-prepares-potential-trump-contempt-order-hush/story?id=109542824

[jcgoldie]

7. thanks

[orangecrush]

76. Made my day

Thanks

[Goddessartist]

2. Welcome to DU!

Me, an old lady, can dream this is the case, all day long. Let's hope so.

[Mr.WeRP]

6. Thank you. We are old too :)

[calimary]

54. Looks like there are birds of a feather on this thread.

My feathers are all in good working order and true blue!

[NBachers]

65. Only 75, but I'm still trying to catch up from some earlier lifetime foibles.

But I’ve never voted Republican! I haven’t ever foibled up that bad.

[Siwsan]

3. I had the same thought

Perhaps that's why it is taking so long for the judge to make a ruling on the contempt charges. Realistically, he could issue a $$ fine with the warning that a jail cell is next in line, and tfg could walk out of the hearing and break the gag order before he leaves the building.

[EndlessWire]

50. The Prosecutors apparently told the Judge

that they planned to file another complaint against Trump for yet more violations of the gag order. They said they didn't ask for jail time yet. So, I think the delay is related to that. I think they will ask for jail time in this second complaint. The Judge could rule on the first one with fines, then rule on the second one with jail.

[LexVegas]

5. Trump is not going to jail for contempt, now or at any point. He may go to jail if convicted. May. nt

[Mr.WeRP]

13. When you ignore positive outcomes, you doom yourself to only the negative ones

The reality is, the Judge could order him to jail.

[maxsolomon]

58. Motherfucker WANTS to be jailed for contempt.

It would burnish his martyr's armor.

[Mr.WeRP]

60. Equal justice demands we give it to him

I have no idea why people think this will benefit Trump. Yes, he might fundraise off of it. So what. The voters he grifted have finite resources and what he raises in the campaign isn’t going to do anything other than pay legal fees.

[maxsolomon]

66. Trump thinks it will benefit Trump. He wants to generate sympathy for his plight.

Will it? Not sure. His supporter numbers are pretty fixed in place, and I'm not sure the flibberdigibbet uninformed swing voters will pay enough attention to change their tiny minds.

[Martin68]

63. That's a gratuitous statement. No one is ignoring positive outcomes. Some of us are just skeptical of the possibility of

jail time for Trump for contempt. In fact, I haven't seen a "positive outcome" that has been ignored. What does that even refer to? There haven't been any "outcomes" so far.

[DownriverDem]

46. Sadly

I agree. I can see trump under house arrest with no internet and any guests would have to be vetted.

[underpants]

8. The Secret Service doesn't do anything without lots of planning

[bearsfootball516]

9. It's a nice thought, but I doubt it.

My guess is he gets the max fine.

[SWBTATTReg]

10. Personally, the judge should make tRUMP do some extensive community service, one that would disgust him,

such as feeding the hungry at the local food pantry serving line, ladling out soup, for a week, incognito.

[Shrek]

30. He could wear an orange jumpsuit and pick up trash on the interstate n/t

[Tree Lady]

41. Would love to see that pic

on the campaign

[CaptainTruth]

55. Trash picking up trash.

[DENVERPOPS]

38. Cleaning

Public restrooms would be most fitting.......

[louis-t]

45. If I was starving, I wouldn't let him serve me soup.

Bleh. He's so gross.

[niyad]

57. Please, what do you have against those in need of such services?

Do you really think they deserve to be subjected to him???

[Vinca]

11. I think he wants to go to jail. It would be the ultimate moneymaker.

A day in the clink, a billion bucks from the idiots who have him on speed donate.

[Maru Kitteh]

12. He's not going to jail on anything to do with this case.

It would be lovely but don't hang your hopes on it. You will be disappointed and it's frankly not worth it. Rejoice in his misery because clearly, he IS miserable. It's a start. It's a good start.

[Mr.WeRP]

20. Both Weisselberg and Cohen have gone to prison for this same crime

Why do you think the Judge won’t sentence Trump to similar time?

[onenote]

67. Neither Weisselberg nor Cohen went to prison for the "same crime" that Trump is charged with committing

Weisselberg pleaded guilty to charges brought against him under New York law primarily for tax fraud. While he was charged with falsifying business records, it was not in connection with the Stormy Daniels payments. And Cohen pleaded guilty to federal charges, primarily campaign finance violations. Not charged under the New York law.

And before the judge can sentence Trump, he has to be found guilty, which is by no means a sure thing.

[Mr.WeRP]

68. The judge can consider their punishments

When he decides sentencing. Like crimes with similar criminals often determine sentencing. I expect the prosecution to ask for time for these reasons.

[onenote]

73. You're right- judges consider the sentences meted out in similar cases. Trump faces a 1 in 10 chance of being imprisoned

Norm Eisen's research indicates that while a jail term impossible, judges consider the treatment of other defendants charged with similar offense and only 1 in 10 cases of falsifying business records result in a prison term:

This may be the first criminal trial of a former president in American history, but if convicted, Mr. Trump’s fate is likely to be determined by the same core factors that guide the sentencing of every criminal defendant in New York State Court.

Comparable cases. The first factor is the base line against which judges measure all sentences: how other defendants have been treated for similar offenses. My research encompassed almost 10,000 cases of felony falsifying business records that have been prosecuted across the state of New York since 2015. Over a similar period, the Manhattan D.A. has charged over 400 of these cases. In roughly the first year of Mr. Bragg’s tenure, his team alone filed 166 felony counts for falsifying business records against 34 people or companies.

Contrary to claims that there will be no sentence of incarceration for falsifying business records, when a felony conviction involves serious misconduct, defendants can be sentenced to some prison time. My analysis of the most recent data indicates that approximately one in 10 cases in which the most serious charge at arraignment is falsifying business records in the first degree and in which the court ultimately imposes a sentence, results in a term of imprisonment.

To be clear, these cases generally differ from Mr. Trump’s case in one important respect: They typically involve additional charges besides just falsifying records. That clearly complicates what we might expect if Mr. Trump is convicted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/18/opinion/donald-trump-trial-prison.html

[Mr.WeRP]

74. Great analysis. Another factor is Trump's behavior in front of this judge

There is a reason lawyers do not let their clients antagonize the judge that will eventually sentence said clients.

[dweller]

14. What was the 2am post ?

Haven’t seen it and haven’t looked either


✌🏻

[Mr.WeRP]

18. Here is a link

https://newrepublic.com/post/180945/trump-rant-unlikely-help-gag-order-hush-money

[dweller]

21. Thanks

Maybe he’ll just stroke out today …


✌🏻

[Mr.WeRP]

22. Hard to believe he hasn't yet!

[PatSeg]

26. That is priceless

Basically, he is admitting what he did when he was in the White House, something he is inclined to do whenever he attacks other people.

"This New York Cabal, run by Crooked Joe Biden’s White House, is a hit job on a Political Opponent the likes of which the USA has never seen before."

Uh no Donald, the USA saw it many times from 2017-2020. You used the Justice department as your own personal law firm and hit men. Not everyone is as dishonest and loathsome as you me boy.

[onenote]

15. The DA didn't ask for incarceration as the penalty, so you can be fairly certain the judge won't order it.

[MiHale]

16. Sounds good...heard about the SS...was wondering...

Welcome Home to DU!

[Irish_Dem]

17. I said the same thing in a comment I posted yesterday.

I think there is a 50/50 chance our theory is correct.

It ticks the boxes.

Judge Merchan is efficient, he doesn't waste time.
The list of violations is clear and obvious.
Trump's attorneys presenting nothing at all in their client's defense.

Why wouldn't Judge M just slap Trump with the fines then and there if that is what he
was going to do?

Why delay and dither. It makes no sense.

Then we have the odd leaks about SS being informed about possible jail time for Trump.

And we have Trump tweeting that the appellate court is his only chance.

Add it all up, looks like the judge is considering jail time.

[Mr.WeRP]

19. Yes, it seems as if there is more than the surface stories

But then again, it could be my own bias that Trump should be held to the same level of justice as anyone else.

[Irish_Dem]

23. Yes but my bias is that Trump will never be jailed.

I seriously doubt any judge has the courage to do it.

The most we can hope for is house arrest and that is a real long shot itself.

So if I was guilty of confirmation bias, it would go the other way, no jail time.

But facts are facts. It looks like something might be going on.

Our theory is not based on surface stories.

Judge Merchan delaying and playing games is not his style.
Everything is pretty cut and dried in terms of just fining Trump.
He doesn't need a lot of time to give Trump a fine for the gag order violation.
He knew it all before he went into court that day.

Additionally he had very stern words for Trump's attorneys and might
as well have come out and called them liars who are 100% unable to control their client.
So the judge knows Trump will continue violating the gag order and putting the jury and
witnesses in danger.

Then we have the SS leaks and rumors.
And it is a fact Trump has been tweeting the appeals court is his now chance now.

Our theory is a reasonable and fact based guess.

[DENVERPOPS]

40. I personally doubt

that any Judge would even think about incarcerating Trump, as the judge being the sole cause of setting off J6's across the nation....and putting that judge's and family in grave danger.......

Same with Jurors for that matter......

[Hope22]

48. Unfortunately the backlash will come sooner or later.

TSF has already called them to action over this. They fail to show. It seems like it would be safer to have President Biden at the helm to squash J6 2.0. An attack on J 6th is almost a certainty.

[Irish_Dem]

52. I agree.

But something seems odd with Merchan delaying his ruling.

Not sure what is going on.

[Mr.WeRP]

75. Like all those Trumpers flooding Manhattan to support Trump

During this trial?



Sorry, that is not a consideration the judge will make during sentencing.

[GregariousGroundhog]

25. Another option is a deferred sentence

The judge could sentence trump to 30 days in jail and stipulate that the sentence is deferred until the completion of the trial and will be rescinded if there are no more slip ups. If (or when) Trump slips, then he gets the original 30 day sentence plus another 30 day one. There would be no surprises for the Secret Service in this scenario. Additionally it would make an appeal harder for Trump, because he's been put on notice and essentially holds the keys to his own jail cell.

[Irish_Dem]

33. Yes but why would Judge Merchan dither about this?

Why dick around with it, why not just lay it out there at the hearing?

It is not a bad idea to do a deferred sentence.
It reinforces the fact that Trump has the keys to the jail cell.
He is the one who puts himself in jail.

Of course he will whine endlessly about it as per usual.

[lindysalsagal]

24. MSNBC speculation that it's another delay tactic: TSF can appeal and stop the trial

which is why the judge doesn't want to incarcerate him.

He'd also get to bellyache and grift from it.

[Mr.WeRP]

28. Lawyers on Meidas Touch say Criminal Contempt won't get a stay

He can appeal but it won’t stop the trial and he will remain in the clinker until appeal is decided. Michale Poppok is a NY criminal defense attorney.

The trial will continue if he is jailed.

[lindysalsagal]

64. Great!!! Let's do it!

[Torchlight]

27. My guess is an increasingly large series of fines

The judge comes across to me as a very meat & potatoes, by the book kinda guy. I think he'll begin with the standard measures, and then work his way up to more draconian tools of justice should the defendant's increasingly shrill and discordant behavior call for it.

[Mr.WeRP]

29. Judge can't exceed $1k per instance

That’s why jail is an option.

[Torchlight]

32. Not sure that's accurate. He fined trump $5000 in Oct. 2023 for one offense.

(it was his post about the court clerk, I believe).

[Mr.WeRP]

35. Merchan has not fined Trump anything yet

I think you are thinking of Engeron. That is a civil case and I believe there were multiple violations in that case.

The law is explicit that contempt has a max fine of $1000 per instance: https://codes.findlaw.com/ny/judiciary-law/jud-sect-751/#:~:text=Except%20as%20provided%20in%20subdivisions,the%20discretion%20of%20the%20court.

[Torchlight]

37. I doubt jail is the only additional option available.

I think the judge is an intelligent guy capable of applying the necessary and measured responses.

[dlk]

31. A retired judge had an excellent solution on Chris Hayes' show last night

Judge Merchan should sentence Trump to jail time for contempt but stay the execution of the order until the end of the trial, letting Trump’s behavior during the trial determine the length of the sentence.

This would avoid any delays and could very well keep Trump under control during the trial.

I thought it was a brilliant idea.

[cayugafalls]

42. Yes, I was impressed how he explained a judges thought processes.

Judge Merchan is so professional and steady, I would not be surprised if this is exactly what he does.

[moniss]

43. Maybe but the

only problem I see is that immediately at the end of the trial I see his lawyer immediately getting a stay from an appellate court based on disputing each instance of contempt throughout the trial. With this defendant we are literally in the realm of appeals over individual words.

[dlk]

70. It's a given, Trump will appeal as much as he can creatively come up with

Eventually, the appeals process will be exhausted, perhaps sooner than later, depending on the exhaustion level of the judges.

[moniss]

71. Agreed and realistically

I think even as delusional as he is he knows that maybe he has 10 more years or so at the most given his health, history and food intake. So for him I think it's about trying to factor lengthy appeals into the thinking to avoid any jail time before he croaks.

[dlk]

72. Costs/Benefits analysis...

He seems to be able to beat the odds in the survival category.

[muriel_volestrangler]

34. Prosecutors did not ask for jail

Although prosecutors told the judge they were not seeking to have Trump jailed for allegedly violating the gag order, they asked that Trump be held in contempt and fined the maximum $1,000 fine for each of 10 offending posts.

The Manhattan district attorney’s office also told the judge they intended to file a further motion alleging that Trump again violated the gag order in the hallway outside the courtroom when he told news cameras that his former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen was a serial perjurer.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/23/judge-trump-violate-gag-order-fine

If he continues to show contempt, jail may become an option, but I can't see a judge imposing more than prosecutors ask for in such a sensitive case.

[onenote]

61. +1

Despite the number of times this has been pointed out, it seems to have escaped the notice of some posters.

[Warpy]

36. I'm a little surorised they haven't done it before now

because they need to cover his worthless ass wherever the ass happens to be.

It doesn't mean putting him in prison is a done deal or even one that's being contemplated. It means the SS doesn't want to be blindsided if he does shoot his big fat mouth off one time too many and somebody gets hurt.

[Mr.WeRP]

39. When you consider how many folks here say he will never be jailed

Or serve time, I can see why it hasn’t been considered by the SS until now

[kimbutgar]

44. The SS agents who deleted their texts on January 6th should be the agents covering him in jail.

[Javaman]

47. Throw his ass in solitary

There, fixed. Solves the SS logistics to boot

[KS Toronado]

49. It's not a fantasy that he shits in his pants all the time!

[Mr.WeRP]

56. Ha! Lol

[LudwigPastorius]

51. I don't see it.

Escalating fines, then maybe some home detention and a tweet ban.

Merchan doesn't want to give Trump's team any kind of argument for bias or overzealousness on the part of the court when they appeal his eventual guilty verdict in this case.

[JT45242]

53. I still like ankle monitor intermediate ...

Intermediate stage. Ankle monitor and he is only allowed to go from court to Trump tower (local home) or meetings with attorney that are not via zoom/skype/Teams/ etc.



If he violates it during that time, then jail time.

He would snap about not being able to go to rallies. But the judge could say, set up a TV transmission room for doing campaign events at Trump Tower and broadcast. You can even make it Pay per view if you want to monetize it.

Just do not violate the gag order again or you will be going to jail.

He wouldn't last 48 hours without spouting off at the mouth, tweet, etc. but it would clearly be "We gave him the opportunity to control himself."

[HighFired49]

69. Intermediate stage - Ankle monitor and shock collar.

Ankle monitor during good behavior and shock collar for any violations. Bet he straightens up right quickly, and will probably negate the need for jail.

[leftieNanner]

59. A retired judge on Chris Hayes last night

Suggested that he could be sentenced to jail, and then stay the sentence until the end of the trial, with the suggestion that the amount of jail time is dependent on his ongoing behavior.

[Martin68]

62. I doubt he's going to jail. A find is much more likely.

The court is very aware of the political implications of the trial. But this is a case where I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.