According to a Bloomberg New/Morning Consult poll, trump is still leading in swing states

[JohnSJ]

"Former President Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Biden in key battleground states that will likely determine the outcome of November’s election, according to a survey published Wednesday.

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Trump garnered 49 percent support in the swing states, over Biden’s 43 percent. The former president held the lead in six of seven states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Biden was ahead by 2 points in Michigan, the survey found."

It boggles the mind when in that same poll "More than half, 52 percent, also cited abortion as a “very important” issue to them when deciding who to vote for in November. Just under 25 percent said it was a “somewhat important” factor for their decision."

and

"Respondents also said they trust Biden more than Trump when it comes to preserving federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Roughly 45 percent said they trust the president to preserve the programs over Trump’s 39 percent."

What kind of disconnect is going on? Are people in swing states that stupid. Most of the economic issues were a direct result of the trump administration.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll was conducted April 8-15 among 4,969 registered voters in seven swing states. It has a margin of error of 1 percentage point.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-holds-overall-6-point-lead-in-battleground-states-poll/ar-AA1nAfAu?ocid=winp2fptaskbar&cvid=cd474260aa2849b39d422ffe37cb22ff&ei=6

[NoMoreRepugs]

1. Recent election results in those states doesn't match up IMO.

[JohnSJ]

7. +++

[BeyondGeography]

2. Michigan is the blue wall state I worry about the most

CNN had Biden -8 not long ago. He has been consistently leading in PA lately and within the MOE in WI. So this is oddly comforting. Or maybe it’s odd to take comfort in polls that are obviously all over the map right now.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. I live here in Michigan

And not in a deep blue part of the state either. Trump is not winning MIchigan, period. He;s not winning PA either. Trump cannot win without 1 of MI or PA.

[Pretty Fly]

11. And yet this poll, it's his best.

He's getting slaughtered in Nevada (down 14), down big in Georgia and Arizona and barely down in PA and WI.

[gab13by13]

3. These threads, I swear, are just meant to aggravate me.

Put up the cash, I will bet 100 bucks per state for charity, based on this poll. I'm taking President Biden.

[Ace Rothstein]

4. The economy and inflation.

This is almost always the most important factor in every election.

Respondents expressed concerns over the economy, the top voting issue in the upcoming cycle.

Only 18 percent said inflation is getting better, while more than half half — 55 percent — said it is getting worse, according to the poll.

[Demsrule86]

6. And I hear no one cares about Roe anymore...go figure. These polls are worthless

[William Gustafson]

15. They may believe that, but come November, the women of this country will have a say... and it won't be pretty...

[Demsrule86]

5. I saw a flying pig yesterday...no really. That has just as muc chance of being true as these polls.

[Xoan]

9. I see the catapult still working.

[MFM008]

10. Just a few days ago

Newsweek had Biden up by 9.
Marist up by 5.
Now comes this one.
It's like they're polling two different countries....
I say outlier.

[JohnSJ]

13. Were those national or swing state polls, because of our electoral college,

national polls do not reflect an accurate outcome

[Pretty Fly]

14. I don't think Newsweek has a poll. And I don't think there's one poll that has Biden +9.

You're discussing the NBC poll, which has Biden trailing Trump overall 46-44, though leading 39-37 when third party candidates are thrown in.

The nine-points come from voters who voted in both the 2020 and 2022 elections.

That suggests Biden's voters are more likely to vote - but we also know in 2022, according to exit polls, of those who voted in the midterms, only 44% said they voted Trump in 2020. That indicates fewer Trump voters voted in 2022 but they did vote in 2020.

And that's what has tripped up pollsters ever since 2016. Trump has done extremely well against voters who don't vote. And it's why he overperforms actual polling, or did in 2016 and 2020, because the likely voter models are not catching these voters since many don't vote in midterm elections (and many prior to 2016 just didn't vote).

A likely voter model probes for past voting patterns to deduce if you're likely to vote or not.

So in 2020, they might have asked you if you voted in 2018 and 2016 and 2014 and 2012. If you said you only voted in 2016, they probably would have dropped you from the sample because to them, the fact you only voted in one election out of four signals you're not a likely voter.

Except these same voters actually did come out in 2020 for Trump. Biden was just able to win more voters who went third party in 2016 and that's how he barely beat Trump.

2024 is a completely different animal. You've got two basic-incumbents who are historically unpopular, a pretty popular third party candidate and that doesn't even get into the criminal charges facing Trump.

[apnu]

12. It's still the silly season.

I don’t think about polls until September.

[William Gustafson]

16. Just so everyone understands how polls work...

They call only land lines... a vast majority of people in this country no longer have land lines, and use their cell phones for their primary phone calls...
So, who exactly has land lines....?..... Baby boomers are vast majority... no, middle class or young people, but baby boomers....
These polls miss an awful lot of voters, so as far as I am concerned, the only poll I trust is the poll after the election...

It's the only one that really counts....

[womanofthehills]

17. No longer true

Most polls tell how polls were conducted and how people were contacted. Many use more cell phone calls than landlines. Lots are a combo of online, cell and landline.