The Free Fall Has Begun For Donald Trump

[applegrove]

Donald Trump

The Free Fall Has Begun For Donald Trump

PoliticusUSA

https://www.politicususa.com/2024/04/23/the-free-fall-has-begun-for-donald-trump.html/amp

"SNIP...........

A new Marist Poll confirms what other polling has shown over the last few weeks. Donald Trump is in free fall, and losing support all over the place.

Trump Loses Support As Biden Opens Up A Lead

According to the Marist National Poll:

Three percentage points separate Biden (51%) and Trump (48%) among registered voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, Biden received 50% to 48% for Trump. Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden (53%) is +6 percentage points over Trump (47%).

Trump has lost support among independents and those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. Trump (49%) and Biden (49%) now tie among independents. Trump held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden previously (52% for Trump to 45% for Biden). Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are now competitive. Trump previously had a 15-percentage point advantage over Biden (54% for Trump to 39% for Biden) among these voters.

...........SNIP"

[msongs]

1. how useless are national polls. we know how CA and UT are gonna vote already nt

[J_William_Ryan]

2. "how useless are national polls."

Extremely.

Presidents are elected via a process both undemocratic and antimajoritarian.

[Silent3]

4. They aren't useless if you understand statistical correlation

Last edited Wed Apr 24, 2024, 07:37 AM - Edit history (1)

Yes, the real election is not decided by popular vote, but historically both the electoral vote and the popular vote usually go the same way. So it's still a very good sign to be leading in a national poll. It's definitely a better sign than NOT leading in national polls.

In recent elections where Democrats lost even while having a popular vote lead, the electoral vote gap was narrow. The wider that gap gets in favor of Biden, the less likely a popular/electoral mismatch.

I don't know why so many people have the attitude that a poll is "useless" if it's anything other than an absolute predictor of the future.

You can be damn sure the Biden campaign is tracking lots of these "useless" polls, plus doing their own internal polling, to smartly figure how where to allocate resources of time and money.

[mopinko]

6. the real polls, on certain tuesdays, have been much different since 17.

i think the trends r real, but the numbers r off.
this trial, in particular, will show he’s made of bullshit and always has been.
and that everything he has that he didnt inherit he got w threats and bribes.

[captain queeg]

3. I think so. Amazed it's taken so long, but the reckoning is coming.

[mwb970]

5. Even people who love trump have had enough.

Personally, I despise him with the white-hot heat of a thousand suns. But hey, that's me.

[Walleye]

7. As scary as he is, we actually got the candidate that's easiest for us to beat, I believe

[Cosmocat]

8. What does it say about this country

that you have this vile, hateful lunatic who relentlessly attacks everyone and everything, who overtly attacks the very foundations of our democracy, and even now its still a coin flip between him and a kind, decent, and highly competent Joe Biden.

[Walleye]

10. It says the country is about half whacked out I guess

I can’t really be objective because I know Joe Biden a little better than the average voter. And it amazes me that they can work up such a hatred for such a good kind man. I’ve never really seen anything like it, and it’s Russian propaganda

[tanyev]

9. Donald Trump, sooper jeenyus.