What are the chances of an aquittal in hush money trial ?

[Beachnutt]

With 34 felony counts, surely he will be convicted on at least a couple.
So by the end of this trial trump will be a convicted felon.

[jimfields33]

1. I doubt an acquittal. Hung jury slim possibility

[Voltaire2]

2. Well my guess is the evidence is overwhelming

and incontestable, so the only question is the integrity of the jurors.

[Ocelot II]

3. Impossible to predict, always a possibility in any criminal case.

[kentuck]

4. Very likely...

In my opinion. Or a hung jury.

[stopdiggin]

16. acquittal (requiring unanimous jury) seems extremely unlikely

a 'hung' jury, not nearly so much.

[TwilightZone]

5. "surely he will be convicted on at least a couple"

The charges are all related, so he's more likely to either be found guilty of all of them or none of them. It's not as though they are 34 disparate charges. They're all for falsifying records.

[hlthe2b]

6. Aquittal near zero (takes 12 to aquit or convict). Hung jury Mistrial, probably 8% (only takes 1/12)

[mn9driver]

7. Possibly a mistrial.

A complete acquittal seems unlikely.

[Mark.b2]

8. 0%...he will be convicted and jailed in this case

they chose the right venue, and assigning Judge Merchan was the genius move. And Merchan has assembled an a jury of the people you’d want.

Bragg piling on 34 felonies, well more that he‘d really need, makes being founfd guilty on at least a virtual certitude.

It's all the more satisfying the weakest case will be the one that takes care of things.

[Demsrule86]

9. I don't think he will be acquitted. But no matter what he has been brought to trial..

[unblock]

10. Too many unknowns. On the surface, you have to think the prosecution wouldn't have brought this particular case unless

they felt it was solid. Prosecutors don't like losing but particularly don't like losing on national tv. That said it's always possible they missed something or f*ck it up.

Moreover, Donnie knows where the bodies are buried and they may be able to impeach witnesses very effectively. Any witnesses are probably crooks themselves, after all michael cohen, e.g.). That said, the checks and the numbers and filings are what they are.

And of course, it's impossible to estimate how jurors will react to the high-profile defendant and case and jury intimidation. That may be the biggest unknown.

To me, it's almost impossible to imagine there wont be at least one juror that's reluctant to be known as someone who voted to convict given the threats from MAGA generally and any specific threats made to these jurors specifically. The question is will they be stubborn or go with the 10-11 who say cmon you gotta do it you know he's guilty.

Can't put a number on that.

[Johonny]

11. Wont even see the case laid out until Monday

The conviction chances feel impossible to know. The money trail is all simple enough to follow. How it leads to a felony might not be. A lot of "experts" think the felony charges are a stretch. But we haven't really heard what Trump is up against yet to know.

[greymattermom]

12. At least we know this

He will be spending months in court rooms, and the press will learn more and more sordid details about his everyday behavior.

[sop]

13. Can't see Trump being found "not guilty" on every count, that seems impossible.

[unblock]

14. FWIW, this site says jury trials have a 14% acquittal rate

https://www.doarlaw.com/blog/2021/04/what-you-should-know-about-the-federal-governments-conviction-rate/

That said most cases get plea bargained, and my sense is that Donnie couldn't possibly accept a deal, except maybe if it involved a fine only. But even then, his circumstances make the plea scenario challenging. So a case that might have been pled down gets thrown into the trial by jury scenario. So maybe there's a bias towards a higher conviction rate in this case. Maybe.

But the star-struck high-profile aspect of the case is a big unknown.

[MOMFUDSKI]

15. Fairly good. Only takes one juror to hang.

But the crimes out on the table are the important thing.