ELECTION 2024: The Deepening Diploma Divide

[Celerity]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-deepening-diploma-divide



We are on track for a historically large education divide among white voters. An average of recent polls finds Joe Biden winning white college-educated voters by 18 points and losing white non-college voters by 27 points—a colossal gap of 45 points. Compared to 2020 results, Trump’s margin with non-college whites is holding steady, while Biden has significantly improved his standing with degree-holding whites.

Such Democratic improvement is certainly welcome for Team Biden, but not unexpected. College-educated white voters have been shifting blue for a decade, driven left by Trump and the GOP’s hardline cultural stances. The flip side of the demographic coin is that nonwhite voters, particularly those without a degree, are moving towards Republicans. Should current trends continue, education polarization—rather than racial—will become the defining feature of American elections.



White voters were not always polarized by education level. Throughout the 1980s and 90s, the white college and non-college vote tracked relatively closely. In 1992, for example, the divide was just two points: Bill Clinton lost college whites by one point and won non-college whites by one point. Such margins are unthinkable today.

The last time white education polarization reached even remotely similar heights was the 1960s—but the margins were reversed. In 1960, JFK won non-college whites, but lost college whites to Nixon by a 2-1 margin. In his landslide 1964 win, Lyndon Johnson nearly cleared 60 percent with non-college whites, but still lost college whites. Today, of course, Democratic margins with the white working class are near all-time lows, while their margins with college-educated voters continue to grow. The trend shows no sign of slowing in 2024.

snip

[BlueKota]

1. I remember it being said when I got my History degree

that the majority of people who studied History ended up becoming Liberal Democrats, no matter what party they identified with previously.

Just googled to see, it it's still true. One article said the majority of people who major in Social Science identify as Democrats, by 11 to 1.

In my first election when I was 18, I voted Reagan. After that huge mistake I have never voted for a Republican again in a State or National election, due in large part to my Social Science education. Local town elections were different because usually Republicans run unopposed except in primaries. I used to vote in them, so I didn't officially change my registration to the Democratic party until the 90s.

The Republicans just became so disgusting to me that I said who gives a fuck which one of the asses wins the local primaries. I don't want to be associated with those jerks even in name only. I just don't vote at all in local races except on the rare occasions there is Democratic challenger.