Dave Wasserman (Cook Political): "1 in 4 chance that Jeffries becomes House Speaker this year....."

[brooklynite]

(I'm on a private call with him).

He expects more Republican resignations.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

1. 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

[Tetrachloride]

2. Prognosticators

[brooklynite]

3. "40-50% chance of the House flipping in the November election."

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. That's all?

With the current one vote majority, I would think the odds would be much, much higher, like 75% or better.

[brooklynite]

5. There are 10 toss-up Dem seats and 11 toss-up Republican seats.....

[Hekate]

6. Ouch. Hopefully we can make that better.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Is he including the new redistricted seats?

Like the new one in AL?

I think Dobbs will shift many of those toss-ups to lean or likely Blue, and will move even more lean or likely Red seats to toss ups.

Yesterday’s special state seat flip in AL is yet more evidence that 2024 will not be politics forecasting as usual.

[brooklynite]

9. Yes. The AL seat is now SAFE D. But three NC seats are now SAFE R.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. The special in AL last night was "safe R"

But the Dem, who campaigned almost exclusively on reproductive rights, won by 25 points.

In Alabama.

[brooklynite]

13. There's a different voter perspective on State vs Federal races.

None of the congressional Special elections have flipped Parties.

[Celerity]

10. We will, unfortunately, lose a net swing of 6 to 8 in NC, as

will go from a 7-7 tie to 10-4 or 11-3 Rethug advantage, due to the new RW US House maps there.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. We shall see

The new NC House map is certainly stacked against Dems, but the state as a whole is the only 2020 Trump state that could flip to Biden.

I think the motto for 2024 could be “expect the unexpected”.

[brooklynite]

14. As fare as selecting candidates to provide support for, I have to expect the "expected"

I have to put my cash and time into the most competitive races; there are two many "Safe" races to try and predict the unexpected.

[Hekate]

7. Thanks for sharing, by the way

[sheshe2]

15. You are on a private call with Dave Wasserman...

and posting on DU as he is speaking to you? Wow that is multi-tasking.

[FakeNoose]

16. K & R This sounds really good!

I think the House will be flipped by November, if not before then. We'll keep the Senate BLUE, and Joe Biden will win his 2nd term. It's going to be a full sweep in November.

[onenote]

17. Almost no chance it will be flipped by November.

The repubs started this Congress with 222 members. They've lost one seat to the Democrats when Santos was forced out and Suozzi elected to fill the seat.

At the moment there are four vacancies in seats previously held by Repubs and one in a seat held by a Democrat. Three of the Republican-held seats will be filled by June and its all but certain they will hold on to most, if not all of them. And there are not likely to be enough repub resignations between now and November to shift the majority to the Democrats.