Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States

[applegrove]

Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States

March 26, 2024 at 6:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/26/biden-gains-ground-against-trump-in-six-key-states/

"SNIP........

“President Joe Biden has gained ground against Republican Donald Trump in six of seven key swing states, and significantly so in at least two of them. The results make for the Democrat’s strongest position yet in a monthly Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.”

“The move in the president’s direction comes after five months of mostly consistent Trump leads, and follows a State of the Union address that rallied Democrats and seemed to mitigate concerns about Biden’s age.”

“The shift was significant in Wisconsin, where Biden leads Trump by one point after trailing him by four points in February, and in Pennsylvania, where the candidates are tied after Trump held a six-point lead last month. They are also tied in Michigan.”

............SNIP"

And from the same poll:

"SNIP...........

Tax the Rich is Actually a Popular Bipartisan Stance

March 26, 2024 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/26/tax-the-rich-is-actually-a-popular-bipartisan-stance/

“The progressive rallying cry of ‘tax the rich’ has morphed into a popular policy stance with voters in the key states that will decide the 2024 election, enjoying support even among those who prefer billionaire Donald Trump,” according to the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.


.........SNIP"

[Think. Again.]

1. Go Joe!!! 🌊 !!!

[liberalla]

2. K&R

[ProudMNDemocrat]

3. Good news indeed...

[DownriverDem]

4. Tradition has said

that where a race stands on Labor Day pretty much shows how it will go. We'll see.

[applegrove]

5. One of the Trump trials is likely going to take place in Sept

(I can't keep my Trump trials straight. There are too many).

[Oopsie Daisy]

6. 📺️ "... and coming up after this commercial break, we'll explain why this is bad for Democrats."

[Aristus]

11. "...But don't let these numbers fool you; the Democrats are in total disarray, and Election Day is predicted to

be a landslide for Donald Trump!..."

[Oopsie Daisy]

13. LOL! We clearly watch the same news programs! 😂🤣

[sybylla]

7. This is a pretty borked poll if he only leads by one in WI.

There are about 1/10 the signs for DonPoorleone in my super red county than there were 4 years ago. Only the craziest still have shit on their lawn in support of him and this is a majority crazy county.

Don't get me wrong; it's nice that they are finally talking like this and showing better polls. But polls are all still bullshit in an era with cell phones and caller ID.

[Johnny2X2X]

8. Same here in Michigan

Trump has no momentum here, his rallies are tiny in comparison to 4 years ago, and the Democrats in charge of our state are very popular.

This is the very beginning of the campaign, this is probably the starting point.

I do think the SOTU really made a difference for the fit to serve doubters. The talk of Biden not being there has died down. In fact, Trump's mental faculties are now a bigger and bigger topic.

[sybylla]

10. Yes! The SOTU was a game changer.

And I'm glad it's showing up in polling. That tells me the undecideds are less undecided.

[StarryNite]

25. Yes, it exposed the lie that he's too old.

[lindysalsagal]

12. Agreed. Very few eejiut signs in PA. Plus, they don't like to vote for a loser, and stay home.

Guess who isn't staying home this time? YOUNG WOMEN.

[womanofthehills]

19. Unfortunately- when Independents are added in PA poll

There is a problem. Same with other swing states except MI.

Just Biden & Trump polled:
Biden 45
Trump 45



With Independents

Biden 38
Stein. 1
Kennedy 7
West. 0
Trump. 44
Other. 10

Scroll down to Independent poll on link.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania

[All Mixed Up]

21. The polling actually indicates the lack of overall support.

The problem with your narrative is that you assume Biden hasn't lost ground from 2020 - and he likely has.

Both candidates are less popular today than they were four years ago.

Take the Wisconsin poll you mentioned:

When it's Biden and Trump, Biden leads 46-45.

But it's not just Biden and Trump. It's Biden, Trump and a slew of third party candidates.

When they're thrown into the mix, Trump leads Biden 41, 39 and 10 to Kennedy.

So, Trump loses four-percent and Biden seven.

Regardless, Trump won 48.9% in Wisconsin in 2020. Biden 49.6%.

These polls show there's less enthusiasm for Trump. When there's multiple candidates to choose from, Trump loses about eight-points off his 2020 total.

Problem is, as I said earlier, Biden also loses support and likely has less support today than throughout the 2020 campaign. He loses a bit over ten-points off his 2020 total.

Which goes to show both candidates are less popular.

[sybylla]

26. My take is from the reddest of the red parts of my state. For 34 years.

Where old conservative Boomers still answer their land lines. Been active in politics here since 2001.

Biden won in 2020 in Wisconsin. There is no way he is behind Don Poorleone after that SOTU speech and all the other legal shenanigans going on with the GOP's candidate.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I remain convinced it's not much of a poll.

[All Mixed Up]

27. I disagree that 'there's no way he's behind Trump'.

I can discount one poll. Even two. Hell, even three or four.

But the reality is that, as much as we dunk on polls, there's generally at least one poll you can point to that goes against the grain.

Take the polls on the Wisconsin gubernatorial election in 2022.

The polls absolutely underestimated Evers' support. Though most polls had the race extremely close.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/2022/wisconsin/

But going back to September, Evers led seven polls, Michels in seven and five where they tied.

I look at this polls and it tells me the race is a toss-up and absolutely comes down to a turnout game.

But I also look at evidence Evers was leading in *some* of the polls, which told me he had a pretty good shot in a toss-up election,

What happened? Evers won.

Now look at the senate race between Johnson and Barnes and it was kind of the opposite of what I just outlined above:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/wisconsin/

Going back to September, Barnes led in three polls. Johnson? 16. They tied in one.

Looking at those numbers, I would assume that Johnson is the likely winner as there was no poll after Halloween that had Barnes up.

Which told me Barnes probably didn't have as good of a shot in a toss-up as Johnson.

What happened? Barnes lost.

So, just looking at Wisconsin right now, in just the head-to-head, I see it as an actual toss-up. One poll has Biden +1, the other Trump +4 and two others show the race tied. That's going back to January.

To me, that's a very similar vibe to what Evers was seeing in his reelection bid.

With that said, 2024 is not going to be a race between just Biden and Trump. It's not like 2020 where a ton of third party challengers dipped and they ran little known candidates who had zero enthusiasm (even Kanye, tho, I am pretty sure he didn't make the ballot in Wisconsin).

You add those third party candidates, tho? And there's zero polls, going all the way back to November, where Biden even ties - let alone leads.

Trump leads in every single poll when third party candidates are included.

Margins aren't huge in a lot of 'em (average right now is 2.7). But the vibe is now opposite of the one with Evers and more in line with Barnes: it's close but Biden is struggling in a toss-up right now.

But that goes to my point: both Trump and Biden have lost support compared to 2020.

Biden's average in the polls in a multi-candidate race is 38.8. Trump's is 41.5. Both pretty below where they ended up on election day 2020.

But that still means there's 7% undecided on average. Which will ultimately decide the race.

I am guessing most those 7% undecided are not interested in supporting Trump. If Biden wins most, he'll likely overtake Trump. If they go third party or don't vote, tho? Well that's how Trump can topple Biden.

Fortunately, it's only March. So, plenty of time to get these numbers in order. But yeah, right now I think it's not crazy to say Biden might be losing in Wisconsin.

[shrike3]

28. Some Duers are interested in only one subject ...

Gig must still pay well, eh?

[wiggs]

9. Lots of reasons but perhaps chief among them is that Trump has been campaigning for three years

and Biden is just starting. Really hasn't even started in earnest.

[Demovictory9]

14. Good

[Emile]

15. K & R

[progressoid]

16. So we like this poll?

It seems that just a few weeks ago we didn't like Morning Consult.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. Who is "we"?

There’s hundreds of posters here and we all have different opinions on polls.

[progressoid]

24. Yeah,

I find it interesting that those people who decry the polls that show Biden in the negative are conspicuously missing from these threads.

[All Mixed Up]

22. I mean, these polls still show Biden losing - just not as badly as he was.

[progressoid]

23. True.

It doesn't seem as great as the headline makes it out to be.

[KS Toronado]

18. "TAX THE RICH, VOTE DEMOCRAT" would be a great bumper sticker.

[usonian]

20. I've got three words for you.

[William769]

29. K&R