2024 is not 2016

[EarlG]

Back in 2016 Skinner and I attended the Democratic National Convention on behalf of DU, and, as you'll understand if you've ever been to one of these things, I came home with a truckload of political signs and memorabilia.

One of those signs has remained lodged in my memory ever since. It's this one:



I absolutely understand why Clinton went with this slogan. At the time, Trump was doing his "America is over" bit, and flirting with the dangerous and divisive themes that have since become his trademark. Meanwhile the Clinton campaign determined that pushing a positive, optimistic approach was the best way to counter him. This made total sense.

Remember: In 2016, Democrats had been in the White House for eight years already. Clinton was running for a third straight Democratic term, facing an electorate that was interested in change. In that position, you can't campaign on, "Everything is terrible, so vote us back in to fix it!" Clinton couldn't run the equivalent of Obama's "Hope and Change" campaign from 2008 -- the only option was to push the positives and highlight Trump's negatives.

This is tough to do after your party has already been in power for eight years. Yet even with that disadvantage -- oh, and not to mention the fact that this would require people voting for the FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT EVER -- she still won the popular vote and just got squeezed out in the electoral college. Trump's negatives were so high that he needed Russian interference and dirty tricks to shove him over the finish line.

So in that context: Back to the sign. In 2016, "Love trumps hate" was a simple three word slogan that got the Clinton campaign's message across and sneaked in Trump's name for bonus points. It made sense.

But here's the thing. After Trump won and time passed, I noticed that there was another way to read the slogan. If you're the kind of person who can take or leave apostrophes, the sign also suggests "Love Trump's Hate."

Go on. Love it. You know you want to.



In other words, while it was overtly an optimistic slogan, the signs also passed off a subliminal order to the Trump-curious. It's okay to love Trump's hate.

In 2016 Democrats played the game of politics as we thought it was supposed to be played, but we were naive. it didn't occur to us that love might not trump hate, and we didn't understand how many people would love Trump's hate.

But there's nothing subliminal about the 2024 election. This time, the entire country knows exactly what we're in for. Trump knows it too -- he knows that if he loses it's all over, which is why he's got nowhere to go but further into crazy town in search of more crazies who might vote for him.

So here's why 2024 is not like 2016.

Imagine if prior to voting in 2016, people could see into the future and find out what Trump's presidency would look like. They'd see all the terrible things Trump did, like his Covid response, and his impeachments, his SCOTUS overturning Roe vs. Wade, and January 6.

Given that the nation solidly rejected Trump in favor of Biden after four years, it seems logical that having that hindsight in 2016 would have meant Trump never getting elected in the first place.

Well, that's exactly the hindsight that everyone has this year, because these things already happened, and we saw them happen. In 2016 Trump ran a, "Give me a chance, what do you have to lose?" campaign, which just squeaked across the finish line. America tried it, didn't like it, and put stop to it in 2020.

So in 2024 there are no more what-ifs. We've already seen what can happen, and Trump is not sugar-coating it -- every day he campaigns, he's telling us all to our faces that this time around it will be even worse if he gets back in.

Here's the usual disclaimer to state that this post is not to say that Trump can't win. All I'm suggesting is that it's easy to forget how the political landscape has changed since 2016, and how much history has been created in such a short space of time. Trump and MAGA are on the wrong side of that history, and I expect the Biden campaign will put a great deal of effort in the coming months into not just showing people what Trump is planning to do, but also tying it in to what he already did.

It seems to me that Trump peaked in 2016 and it's been downhill for him ever since, with his whole life for the last eight years just involving him repeatedly screwing himself over with his own words and actions. I'm hoping that 2024 will be a continuation of this trend.

[dchill]

1. Trump hates love.

[2naSalit]

8. Yup.

[wiggs]

20. Trump loves hate. nt

[dchill]

21. It's a Rubik's Cube of those 3 words...

... that's solved any way you shake it up.

[MontanaMama]

29. And tRumpers love

his hate.

[anamnua]

32. I agree. There was a novelty value to Trump then,

which is no longer operative, and which seduced the politically naive.

[hlthe2b]

2. Great post for needed persective....

If the stakes were not so high, I think a lot of us would feel more confident, but this helps.

[republianmushroom]

3. dup

[republianmushroom]

7. We shall see if you are correct.

Let us hope that 2024 is not the same as 2016.

[tanyev]

4. Also, 2024 is not 2020.

With Trump holding the power of the presidency, many strings were pulled and many sycophants were well-placed to create the chaos of refusing to accept the results of the election, culminating in the violence of Jan. 6th.

They will try again, and there are far too many elected officials and judges on board to support them, but they don’t have the built-in advantage they had in 2020.

This is my hope.

[Sky Jewels]

14. Another thing was that in 2020 the D ground game was severely hampered by Covid

because, well, most Democrats respect science and didn't do much door-knocking or in-person rallies and events.

(Most Maga types weren't constrained by logic and reason and felt no qualms about blowing hot air and germs into each other's faces, and Herman Cain and many others found out after fucking around by rejecting masks and social distancing.)

[elleng]

5. I'd rather hate trmps hate.

[WarGamer]

6. one rec on the way to about 500...

[2naSalit]

9. K&R

[onecaliberal]

10. 💯 Spot on!

[FakeNoose]

11. About 2016, here's what I keep coming back to...

There was no "kiss and make up" meeting between Hillary and Bernie. Had they done that, it would have made all the difference. Remember when Barack Obama won the primaries in 2008? Hillary was a good Democrat, and she went to Obama with her hat in her hand. They kissed and made up, Hillary was promised Secretary of State, and she campaigned to help Obama win.

When did that happen in 2016? Never. Bernie did nothing to help Hillary, and Hillary (or her campaign people) said "Well that's OK, we don't need their votes."

So many mistakes!

[Lonestarblue]

25. Another mistake was never visiting Michigan because her campaign staff thought she didn't need to.

No candidate can afford to ignore swing states and assume they’re in the bag.

[twodogsbarking]

12. Love hates hate.

[Ping Tung]

13. Biden has two major issues he can win on and he's using them.

1. Trump himself is a grand issue to run on and Biden is playing like a master in just letting Trump blabber and insult even "rinos" calling then disloyal, unpatriotic, weak, etc. His absurd sales of cards and sneakers to the rubes just shows how he views he views people and his folllowers in particular as morons who will buy anything he says or does. Even the dumbest and most loyal of them are growing tired of him whining and playing the victim.

2. Abortion rights. It's a sure loser for him and repub politicians in general. In order to keep the MAGAs voting for them they have to appease evangelical hard liners who claim even embryos are darling little babies who die if anyone accidentally leaves one out of thee freezer. The opposite is true for the Repug and Indie women who have had abortions or think they (or on of their friends or family) may need one.

And Biden and the Dems in general have an uncountable number of videos, tapes, photos, of Trump and his True Believers spouting off the onerous crap they're yelling about.

[OMGWTF]

15. I have that button and wore it during the 2016 election. A MAGAt thought it meant I loved Trump.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Heartily agree

We are even light years from 2020 and what the world was like back then.

I still think the overturn of Roe v Wade became a game-changer and that has been reflected in every election after that happened. The attack of the IVF procedure just inflamed things even more.

Just gonna have to keep working and fighting to get Joe Biden & Kamala Harris over the finish line

[SergeStorms]

17. I hope you're correct, EarlG.

For some reason I have this nagging feeling that there's some "October surprise" in store. I have no evidence to back this up, not even the hint of a clue.
.
It occured to me that they've had almost four years to plan this, this time. They were hurried and panicked in 2020. They tried every bullshit option they could think of on the fly. In the end, they ran out of time.

Vladimir Putin has much riding on this election as well. His invasion of Ukraine has been going remarkably better since the Big Orange Pig told his subjects in the House to sit on aid to Ukraine. It'll go even better if Trump is elected. Putin will have carte blanch to remake the USSR if Trump is elected. I expect Russia to throw everything they have at getting Trump elected. They've had almost four years to prepare as well. One thing I don't expect, is them doing nothing.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong about all this. If I am, I'll never be as happy to eat all those words as is humanly possible. It'll make my lifetime. But if I'm not........

[Mme. Defarge]

19. An "October Surprise"

is my concern as well.

[Think. Again.]

28. I have to agree...

...I think everyone is aware they will try many horrible things to re-install trump, but I try to keep my chin up by constantly thinking about and promoting a massive Blue Wave that will put the last few years behind us for good.

[SergeStorms]

33. I'd love a blue tsunami myself.

Nothing would strengthen and restore America's position in the world like control of Congress and the White House. It would make our allies delirious.

Like I said, I want to be wrong, but the ultra-conservative wing of republican politics hasn't been treading water since January, 2021. They know what they did wrong in 2020. They've been working feverishly on the local, state, federal, and foreign levels ever since.

And it scares the shit out of me.

[Think. Again.]

35. I dream of the day we rid ourselves of rightwingers forever.

[orleans]

18. are you going to the convention in chicago this year?

it's in mid august and i think those 17 yr cicadas will be gone by then

(hopefully)

[bluescribbler]

22. "What have you got to lose?"

We know now what we have to lose if he gets back in power. We will lose our democratic republic, and any hope for a positive future for the younger generations. I am an old man now, not too many more birthdays left for me, but I have nieces and nephews whose lives will be adversely affected. We can't afford what we will lose.

[IronLionZion]

23. Yup, and we of course don't need his dumbest MAGA bigots

we just need enough moderates, independents, and swing voters to tip enough states to our side. The more he wallows in hate and despair, the more he would be turning off sensible voters who can clearly see that America is way better off now than 4 years ago.

Biden's policies have not proven to be the socialist jobs pit that MAGA claims. Instead of stealing our jobs, we are seeing "nobody wants to work anymore" labor shortage. We did see plenty of empty store shelves and major supply shortages during the fourth year of Trump's presidency. The people who grow, pick, and process our food might benefit from the very migrant workers that Trump claims aren't even human.

Trump voters dying of COVID might have an impact on the available pool of voters dumb enough to believe his lies again. Biden actually delivered the millions of jobs, revenue, and economic growth Trump had promised.

[nuxvomica]

24. Trump can't win

I mean that in the same sense as the student who says to the teacher, "I can't fail this class!" We simply can't let that happen.

[Mad_Machine76]

26. GOP hasn't had any good election seasons since then either

Their only victory- barely winning the House in 2022 and their numbers have declined even further since then- was more math and less popularity.

[RussBLib]

27. I've used similar lines before....

....in 2016, no one really knew how bad Trump could get. Then, we saw it, and Trump was roundly rejected in 2020.

Since 2020, Trump has only gotten worse, and crazier, and even more abusive. This behavior is not going to win him over more votes. If anything, it has hardened attitudes against him.

As the Lincoln Project recently said, Americans are tired of Trump's grifting, his indecency, and his criminality.

I try to have empathy for people, but I cannot muster even a speck of empathy for that guy.

https://russblib.blogspot.com/?m=1

[TSExile]

30. Neither can I...

...but then, I generally tend to dislike RAPISTS.

[betsuni]

31. "Love and kindness" has been a signature Hillary message forever (was mocked for it in the '90s).

From "What Happened":

"It started as something I'd occasionally mention at the end of speeches ... . It eventually became a rallying cry, 'Love trumps hate!' Partly because the race felt ugly and mean and we wanted an antidote to that. But partly it was because I've been thinking for a long time about how our country needs to become kinder and all of us need to become more connected to one another. ... It's serious to me. If I had won the election, this would have been a quiet but important part of my presidency.

"'Love and kindness' became a staple for me on the campaign trail. Never the core message ... but something I came back to again and again, and that audiences nearly always responded to, as if they were thirsty for it. ... When we started using using the phrase 'love trumps hate,' it caught on like wildfire among our supporters. There were times when I listened to huge crowds chanting those words, and for a minute I'd get swept up in the swell of positive energy and think it might really carry us all the way.

"I've spent many hours since the election wondering whether there was more we could have done to get that message through to an angry electorate in a cynical time. There's been so much said and written about the economic hardships and declining life expectancy of the working-class whites who embraced Donald Trump. But why should they be more angry and resentful than the millions of blacks and Latinos who are poorer, die younger, and have to contend every day with entrenched discrimination? ... Fundamentally, I believe that the despair we saw in so many parts of America in 2016 grew out of the same problems ... twenty-five years ago. Too many people feel alienated from one another and from any sense of belonging or higher purpose. Anger and resentment fill that void and can overwhelm everything else: tolerance, basic standards of decency, facts, and certainly the kinds of practical solutions I spent the campaign offering."

[All Mixed Up]

34. 2024 isn't 2016 but it's not like any election we've ever really experienced.

It's the first election since Teddy Roosevelt returned where a former president is running for a new term after being out of office for some time. It's also the first election where the two party candidates are the same as four years earlier since Eisenhower/Stevenson in the 1950s.

Hillary Clinton was not an incumbent and while she had traits of an incumbent, her biggest vulnerability that election was that no one knew what her presidency was going to be like - good or bad. Trump was successful at convincing enough voters that voting for Hillary would be voting for four years of scandals, indictments and crime (hilarious in retrospect).

Truth be told: no one knows how this election is goin to play out.

In fact, in many ways, it's a mix of a bunch of different elections.

It's 2020 solely because it's Trump vs Biden again.

It's 2016 because there's a frustration, and dissatisfaction with the two major party candidates that, like in 2016, we're seeing a stronger than normal third party showing in the polls.

It's 2012 because Biden, like Obama, inherited a mess that bled into his first term and dominated much of the recovery (high unemployment and anemic job growth for Obama and inflation for Biden).

It's 1992 because you have a very unpopular incumbent fighting back a tough perception, which is driving another strong third party candidate.

It's 1980 because, like 1992, you had a very unpopular incumbent fighting economic conditions that aren't necessarily something he can control.

And yet it's none of those because Trump isn't Reagan. Trump isn't Clinton. Trump isn't Romney.

And Trump isn't 2016 Trump. Or even 2020 Trump.

What we know is that both Biden and Trump are extremely vulnerable. The hope here is that, as it often is with reelection campaigns (2004, 2012 especially), the American people concede the current status quo is better than the alternative (for whatever reason).

[central scrutinizer]

36. TSF's response to covid was a big factor in 2020

Unfortunately, much of the electorate has a short selective memory. Covid, unless you lost a family member, is no longer a thing. A sharp spike in gasoline prices in October 2024 may sway more votes than memories of emoluments, mishandling of top secret documents, other outrageous and traitorous deeds.

[Emile]

37. K & R

[czarjak]

38. Vlad settled that.