Trump Holds Small Lead in Georgia

[applegrove]

Trump Holds Small Lead in Georgia

March 20, 2024 at 6:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/20/trump-holds-small-lead-in-georgia/

"SNIP...........

A new Marist poll in Georgia finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in the presidential race, 51% to 47%

Key takeaway: “Compared with the Exit Polls of the 2020 General Election results, Trump has gained support among younger Americans. He is now +5 percentage points over Biden among those 18 to 29. Biden carried this age group in 2020 by 13 percentage points.”

..........SNIP"

[Hugin]

1. I'm skeptical about a twenty point swing over less than four years.

Especially, given that the vast majority of people’s opinions of the two asked about are cemented in place.

[applegrove]

2. I bet most of those are men who don't want women to have as much agency as they have.

[Polybius]

7. Please explain "20 point swing"

The poll shows Trump leading by 4 points. In 2020, Biden one by less than 1 point.

[Hugin]

9. Biden carried that age group by 13 in 2020...

Now allegedly TSF is up by 5.

[Lovie777]

3. Polling tends to forget all the suppression and gerrymandering done........................

by Republicans to curve voting rights especially against the POC.

And they are still at it.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. The statement about young voters should be completely ignored

Young voters made up 20%, or about 220, of the survey respondents. Only 13% were determined to be likely voters.

The entire sample of registered voters had a MOE of 3.7% This means Trump 51, Biden 47 could also be Trump 47.3, Biden 50.7.

The sub sample of young voters probably has a MOE over 10%, rendering any conclusions about that subgroup meaningless.

[Demsrule86]

6. Exactly right! and they used te 2021 census too...inappropriately if you ask me.

Rec.

[Demsrule86]

5. I call bullshit on this poll...no way with Roe that age group will vote for Trump...you know

this is a survey, right? Much of it is done online...Please note registered voters not likely voters. Also, they were contacted by all sorts of ways that no longer work...also there was text and online numbers. Then the raw numbers were finessed using the 2021 American Community survey. So much or their so-called poll which is not a poll. This is not worth the paper it is written on. Also, we don't need Georgia but I think we will win it. Of their so called sample...less than 1000 said they will vote...I would fail statistics if I turned this in for a class assignment.

"How the Survey was Conducted
Nature of the Sample: Marist Poll of 1,283 Georgia Adults
This survey of 1,283 Georgia adults was conducted March 11th through March 14th, 2024 by the Marist
Poll. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Georgia were contacted through a multimode design: By phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The sampling frames include RDD plus
listed landline, RDD cell phone sample plus cell phone sample based on billing address to account for
inward and outward mobility within a state, and aggregated online research panels. Survey questions
were available in English or Spanish. Phone and online samples were selected to ensure that each region
was represented in proportion to its population. The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect
the 2021 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and race. Regional
adjustments were made for turnout in similar elections. Results are statistically significant within ±3.5
percentage points. There are 1,177 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically
significant within ±3.7 percentage points. There are 958 registered voters who definitely plan to vote in
November’s general election. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±4.1 percentage
points. Tables include results for subgroups to only display crosstabs with an acceptable sampling error.
It should be noted that, although you may not see results listed for a certain group, it does not mean
interviews were not completed with those individuals. It simply means the sample size is too small to
report. The error margin was adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations."

[Polybius]

8. With all due respect, you call BS on every poll showing Trump up

I agree with one thing though, polls 7 months out are just silly.