There is a popular post on DU suggesting Trump won't make it to the General Election. Let's do a poll

[Quixote1818]

Here is the thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218632620

So will Trump's mental decline prevent him from making it to the General Election? I don't have a strong opinion either way. It was such a popular post I was just curious how that idea would poll here on DU.

69 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Unlimited
	Trump won't make it to the General Election or he will be too damaged to be viable because of too much cognative decline and lose badly.
	26 (38%)
	Even with cognative decline he will make it to the GE and it will be a close race
	36 (52%)
	Other
	7 (10%)
	1 DU member did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Beausoleil]

1. Magats don't care

It's Trump or bust.

He won't drop out.

If he drops dead, all bets are off.

[SoFlaBro]

10. I pray that it comes true and that God hits paydirt!!

[Silent3]

2. I went with "other" simply because I can't know for sure

I’d say Trump’s cognitive decline having an impact on the election is a distinct possibility, but there’s not enough info to guess the odds.

My guess would be Trump dropping out of the race outright is very unlikely.

Trump showing such a big decline so soon that Haley wins the Republican nomination is also pretty unlikely, but more likely than Trump dropping out. (He’d stubbornly run as an independent in this event.)

The most likely scenario I see for Trump’s mental state affecting the race is that Trump becomes the Republican nominee, then simply embarrasses himself into losing a lot of support in the general election.

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. He's been losing, totally, since 2020.

For a guy who wants to project "winner", that's a problem. The true Trump is getting exposed and it's driving him nutz.

[Takket]

4. well i don't know if he'll make it to the general.....

but if he does not it won't be because of "mental decline". the gop ostriches all have their heads in the sand on that so that won't stop him at all.

[captain queeg]

5. I was thinking of doing a poll like this myself

I don’t think he’ll be the rethug candidate. By then they realize what. Hot mess he is and will be happy if something’s prevents him, be it legal or mental. Not to say he won’t try to run some 3rd party candidacy.

[limbicnuminousity]

6. Other.

Best guesstimate is he won't make it but it won't ONLY be because of cognitive decline. The court cases are a major factor. The fines he's been receiving, Ghouliani demanding legal fees, his inability to do business in New York, his drug addiction all tie into it.

I just don't see him holding it together for another 10 months. He'll win the R primary (or be in the lead) by votes no doubt. My suspicion is the R convention is going to be one for the history books. I say that half in anticipation and half in dread.

[WestMichRad]

7. He'll make it to the general election...

… but it’s not gonna be close. He and the GQP are gonna get crushed. GOTV!!

[DC77]

9. Yes, the poll is asking for multiple prediction.

Should be he either makes it to the General Election or not. Should not include how “close” the loss is.

[Quixote1818]

11. The reason I included that it would be close in the second choice is because in the thread I link to

They suggest he could make it to the GE but be so damaged he will get blown out.

[MyNameIsJonas]

12. Not sure why anyone would think it won't be close considering his last two elections were extremely close.

[WestMichRad]

14. Because he's a blithering idiot and a criminal?

At some point, some of his base will give up on him. I’m guessing quite a few will, after the convention but before the election.

Hoping!!

[MyNameIsJonas]

17. He was all those things in 2020.

And yet he actually improved his vote percentage nationally and in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

[Quixote1818]

15. Yeah, it's wishful thinking that it will be a blowout no matter how insane Trump becomes. nt

[MyNameIsJonas]

18. If there had been no inflation and cost of living crisis...

...plus no Gaza conflict like we're seeing right now, I could see it. I could see Biden winning big in November. But all those things are making him vulnerable and likely will keep this race closer than it ever has any business of being.

[mahina]

8. Unfortunately, this is going to be an extremely close election

Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, who am I forgetting? Wants to put that moron in power because he is easily manipulated and weak.

Also, unfortunately it is coming at a time when it’s extremely cheap to do so. However so not cheap for us to do what we have to do which is one on one conversion and voter registration. That didn’t get any easier

[NNadir]

13. This poll, of course, is meaningless. I do think his cognitive decline is becoming more and more obvious.

Let's face it though, it's not like many of his supporters have ever been able to consider careers as brain surgeons or rocketry engineers.

There are a lot of stupid people in the United States, any many people prone to cult behavior, but this cult isn't big enough to make it anymore.

We're all shell shocked that an immoral fool won in 2016, but in 2024 we're in "fool us once" territory. In the nether regions I knew as "Trump country," the flags are mostly down. The morons, as morons often do after binge drinking, are fighting off a hangover.

[lees1975]

19. The Republicans who are working to stop him don't really have the means.

There will be moves to block his delegates, but I don't think that amounts to much.

He gets there, but he loses. Do Third parties benefit? The media loves to cite this or that poll, all over the place, about their popularity, but if you look closely at the data, the support is weak. Money is the big factor and Cornell West and RFK Jr and NoLabels don't have any and are having trouble raising any.

https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/01/new-pennsylvania-poll-shows-biden-leading-trump-in-head-to-head.html

7.5% lead in PA. Friends of mine in the precint where I used to volunteer there say it's even more than that.

I stick with my original prediction, Biden, and 400+ electoral votes, including all the states he won in 2020 plus North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

[DemocraticPatriot]

21. That's an extremely bold prediction...

I certainly don't see any way we would win in Ohio or Texas, but North Carolina is contestable...
On the other hand, Michigan seems extremely at risk to me, as a resident, with the largest number of Arab-Americans of any state in the country, who are pissed off about the Gaza war...

Better bookmark your own post here, so you can bring it up again if you were anywhere near close,
and tell the rest of us "I TOLD YOU SO!!!" lol


The wild card in all this is whether any of Trump's criminal trials can be completed before election day...
'The jury is out' on that, but I personally think in terms of the worst case scenario, where none of the cases are decided before then.
(Don't want to succumb to overconfidence)

[DemocraticPatriot]

20. It will be a close race, but we will win

because we will work our asses off....