We got a horse race. Haley finished much closer than was expected and Donny is bleeding support,

[Botany]

showing more and more signs of cognitive decline, and his criminal and civil penalties are piling up daily. Look for the PTB to put real money behind Nikki because they know Trump as the nominee means a loss in November.

[ColinC]

1. I don't think this is true

But I really really really hope it is.

🤞 fingers crossed you are right!!!

[Botany]

5. Hey I want Trump to be the nominee.

But by the South Carolina primary he most likely will be a drooling mess. Watch Nikki try to
goad him into a debate daily.

[LiberalFighter]

8. Well she made the first step by challenging him to a debate.

[Ligyron]

2. If she does well here and then wins home state of South Carolina...

[NoRethugFriends]

15. She will be getting creamed in S. Carolina. Do a little research

[Ligyron]

31. Gotta admit, don't pay much attention to her.

Obviously.

I was just hoping for someone to derail Dump.

[NoRethugFriends]

32. Why? Trump easier to beat than Haley

[Scruffy1]

21. She burned her bridges there.

She managed to piss off most of the GOP leaders in the state by shoving primary challenges at them She will get very little from the faithful.

[ITAL]

3. Nah

Wish I could agree with you. Haley needed to be within 5 points (or even win) to start a political earthquake. Trump will win SC by 20+

[Kaleva]

18. Where did you get that info?

Pundits I've seen talking said being within single digits would be a big boost for Haley.

[ITAL]

19. She's not within ten right now either

But I make my statement on the idea than being super close would mean that she got more GOP support in the primary. Looking at exit polls she didn't do particularly great with Republicans. Her support is being driven by Independents. Trump can point to that and claim (with some justification) it's giving an inaccurate window to how Republicans actually view him. He destroyed her among actual Republicans.

[Kaleva]

38. Bad news for TFG is that he can't win with just the R vote

If Indies swing for Biden in the fall, tfg has no chance . If moderate Rs stay home, it will be tough for TFG to pull out a win.

[NoRethugFriends]

33. Would not have mattered. The rest of the primaries are set up for Trump.

[Lucinda]

4. You know its bad when MTG runs in front of the camera to say Haley

doesn't really have that much support!
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1749965675890982994?s=20

[TexasDem69]

6. Where is Haley going to turn the tide?

I can’t see any state where Republicans prefer Haley

[bucolic_frolic]

7. An election is never over until MTG mouths off, and she's got a barn burner tonight

Link to tweet

[Botany]

11. Oh for the love of dog MTG was a hot mess

I think that was Governor Sununu laughing at her and the reporter was pissed.

[GenThePerservering]

40. Yeah, I think that's Sununu

those two are probably wondering how to get that little twerp to just shut up.

[nolabear]

9. I'm kind of looking forward to her baiting him for months.

I don’t have any illusions and she’s a nightmare but she’s not half bad at mudslinging. I hope they tear one another’s throats out.

[central scrutinizer]

10. Good! Waste more millions of dollars now

Nfm

[hay rick]

12. By any honest standard tonight is a disaster for Trump.

The Trump polling lead in the last week has been 20+ points. 538 numbers here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/

Haley started making the long overdue attack on Trump's fitness in just the last week. The bleeding of his campaign is visible and undeniable already. Trump's cognitive deterioration will be the new frame of much of the reporting on the primary campaign between now and Super Tuesday. Trump, with his lack of impulse control, will sputter and strike back, and the narrative will be strengthened.

[Botany]

13. Yup! His armor of invincibility has been dented and Trump will not listen to experts and lash out ....

…. @ Nikki in his wild Trumpian style and looking more and more bat shit every day. Now I don’t
know if the tv shots I have seen reflect reality but I have seen more than one 1 or 2 time Trump
voters who said they would not vote for him again. Between his mental and physical decline which
will only get worse almost daily and his unelectablity things could get rough for Donny.

Look for his handlers to try to limit his camera time and most likely try to medicate him too.


Or I might be wrong.

[In It to Win It]

16. I don't think so as far as the nomination goes

Trump is banking on the winner-take-all states where it doesn't need to be a landslide. He just needs to get to 50%+1. He's shown he can do that twice now.

[onenote]

41. Those polls show that on January 1 Trump was projected to get 44%. Yesterday he got 54%

That doesn't seem like he's trending downward.

[hay rick]

43. The polls I saw for January reported Trump against 5 other Republicans.

I don't know which poll(s) you are referring too, but to give an example: If Trump was favored by 44% and Haley by 20% circa January 1, other voters were favored by 36%. In that case, Trump picked up an additional 10% from the candidates that dropped out and and Haley picked up approximately 23% of those votes. And that was after DeSantis dropped out and endorsed Trump.

[thatdemguy]

14. I have read and seen a few things

Saying that a lot of the independents voted for Haley over rump. If you look at the last numbers I saw total Dem votes is just over 40k, total repug votes is like 110k. Those numbers are very un balanced, does the state have that many more pug voters?

[hay rick]

17. R and D registrations are almost exactly equal in NH.

The higher Republican turnout is largely due to the fact that Biden was not on the ballot and did not campaign there. People voting for him had to to write in his name or vote for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson. As it was, local Democratic activists organized a write-in campaign and he was getting 62% of the vote last I checked.

Independent voters (Unaffiliated in NH) are the largest group of registered voters in NH and can vote in either primary. They mostly voted in the Republican primary and are credited with reducing Trump's margin.

[limbicnuminousity]

20. Think you're right. Haley doesn't need to win, just survive

Last edited Wed Jan 24, 2024, 10:16 AM - Edit history (1)

long enough for Tangerine Dream "color" "noun" to froth at the mouth and completely lose what little control over his mind that remains on national tv.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. Please don't do that. Tangerine Dream was a creative band. And tRump is NOT a dream of any kind other than nightmare. nt

[limbicnuminousity]

25. omg, I am so deeply apologetic

Didn't know the band's name, that was just free-association.

Apologies to all dreams, no tangerines harmed in the printing of this post.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

26. It's okay. I thought that might be the case. Could go the other way too, some time

Some day I might make such a remark and someone would say "Ouch, you just insulted my favorite AI virtual reality show character."

[AZSkiffyGeek]

30. Tangerine Dream doesn't deserve to be dragged into this!

They’re a great krautrock/new age band. Is another shitty band with an orange themed name?

[DemocraticPatriot]

22. Indeed, in the past couple weeks, the cognitive decline of dRump

seems to be speeding up a lot---

he has gone from making statements that are obviously false,
to making statements that make no sense whatsoever, so that
no reasonable person can even discern
WHAT THE FUCK he is trying to say!!!


So what will his nomination acceptance speech sound like, in 6 months?

I have my doubts that there will even BE one!

(or perhaps it will be A.I. generated onto a screen,
so his handlers will attempt to hide the fact that he has become
a totally degenerated idiot by that time..)

[Ford_Prefect]

23. We know he runs on nose candy of some kind...

[lapfog_1]

28. normally I can put on my Dumpy Drawers decoder ring

and figure out what the idiot is trying to say. You know, all those airports we occupied in the Revolutionary War...

but these days... WTF. Sometimes he just goes trailing off, can't read the prompter because he CANNOT read, and just starts spewing words.

Death Penalty instead of Death Spiral... I can't even imagine, other than free association, how he said that...

celebrity "The word is Death..." contestant "Penalty!" buzzz...

[JT45242]

27. She just needs to get Koch to fund her til TFG loses 14th amendment case

If the billionaires think she is the best alternative to win, they will buy Alito, Thomas and beer bong to get TFG off the ballot so that get someone who has a chance of getting elected and bringing Project 2025;to fruition.

[cilla4progress]

29. The next few days will tell.

Which is spin.

[Torchlight]

34. Last week was reported Trump's internal polling data show him hemorrhaging

independent and unaligned voters at an astounding rate.

Just maybe... in their garden of the imagination, the bloom is finally off the rose as more and more see an empty suit filled with little more than stale burgers, stale slogans, and and stale tantrums.

[Botany]

35. I think tfg is also losing republican voters too ..... he really is damaged goods

Now Nikki faces an uphill battle but between his obvious cognitive decline, his criminal and
civil Issues which can no longer be ignored by some republicans he is in real trouble.

Nikki needs to take the gloves off and go after Trump and his record. He just admitted to taking
$8 million in bribes as President for work he did for those countries.

Btw I want Donny to be the nominee because his loss is a sure bet.

[Kennah]

36. TFG is a horse's ass, so it indeed is a horse race

[Kennah]

37. My apologies. Horse industry has lodged an objection to me comparing TFG to a horse's ass.

[GenThePerservering]

39. I doubt Haley gets the nomination, even if Trump is a drooling idiot

Goppers are fundamentally misogynistic, and besides she isn't blond.

It'll be Trump v Biden unless Trump falls off his perch (unlikely).

But let the increasingly broke GOP keep spending resources to keep the charade going.

[Shrek]

42. There is a non-trivial chance that Trump will be incarcerated, or too medically / mentally unsound to continue

All she has to do is stay in the race and continue to accumulate delegates.