"a recent Quinnipiac University poll: Kennedy hit 22% among registered voters."

[a kennedy]

There are few things you can be more certain of in life than a Democrat or a Republican winning a US presidential election. We don’t usually do third parties or independents in this country. Chances are Democrat Joe Biden or Republican Donald Trump will be elected a year from now.

But it would be foolish to dismiss what the current polls are telling us: Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling higher than any independent or third-party candidate in a generation. He, along with other non-major-party candidates, has a real chance to affect the outcome of the 2024 election.

Take a look at a recent Quinnipiac University poll: Kennedy hit 22% among registered voters. That struck me as very high, so I went into the polling vault.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/11/politics/robert-kennedy-rfk-2024-election-outcome/index.html

[TwilightZone]

1. It's unlikely to last.

Third-party candidates start off with a flash, then settle down into the single digits. Outside of Perot, very few third-party candidates have made an impact beyond being a spoiler in close races, like Stein and Nader.

Plus, in RFK Jr's case, the more people get to know him, the more his support will drop among independents and Democrats. If Rs want to vote for him and take votes from Trump, I'm fine with that.

[a kennedy]

3. Yah, that's what I'm hoping.......taking votes away from tRump.

[Demsrule86]

13. Another BS poll. Kennedy and is Maga-hangs with Bannon and Flynn

Far more likely to take votes from Trump.

[Cha]

9. Then there's stein's Lies

who assisted getting traitor into the WH in the swing states.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Obama lost to Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich in 2011 polls. Nt

[a kennedy]

4. Yup......

[pinkstarburst]

5. I don't think he will get 22% of electoral votes...

Last edited Sat Nov 11, 2023, 06:13 PM - Edit history (1)

...but I don't think we should ignore this poll result either.

I think what this poll is telling us is that 22% of people polled (and maybe 22% of the country--I think it's a fair bet) are not terribly enthusiastic about the idea of voting for either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

-The country does not want another 2020 matchup.
-The country sees both candidates as having had their time. They want someone new. People want TWO new candidates.
-They are both seen as too old. There are voters out there who do not want an 86/82 year old president. Hence, why RFK Jr may suddenly look like an option they're willing to consider, even if reluctantly.

I don't think RFK has a serious chance of winning. No way. What I worry about is that he and Jill Stein and all the other 3rd party distractions are in this perfect storm scenario where because the country doesn't really like either candidate very much (both Joe and 45 have/had terrible approval ratings) they will siphon off enough votes in swing states that it's anyone's ball game. And I shudder to think that could get us another four years of 45. I just can't imagine what he'll do then.

Does this mean 22% of people actually vote for RFK Jr? I hope not. But I think we should not simply ignore this poll as a mistake.

[BlueIdaho]

7. Name recognition

Once his views are widely reported he will disappear like a puff of smoke.

[a kennedy]

8. So hope you're right.......

[womanofthehills]

10. His views are very widely reported to the young on social media

If you are not into popular podcasts, you would not know that he’s being interviewed daily on podcasts that have huge young audiences. Most podcasts are a half hour to two hrs where he discusses his policies in depth. Some polls have him equal with Trump & Biden in polling of those under 30. He’s calling for peace in Ukraine, but many on social media have a problem with his initial support for Israel - lately he’s been talking about policies but totally avoiding statements on the war in Gaza. Some young are iffy on him right now waiting to see if his stance on the Gaza war changes.

This race can’t really be compared to older third party races as never before has everyone had a cell phone and phones are where the young get their news.

Look at this rally in NYC last night - there are now rallies every day in NYC and the city is overwhelmed. Who are these people going to vote for?? Where is this going?? Biden needs to try and end this war fast as these rallies just get bigger day by day.

?si=JMeN4zx9Eya1z3FP

[BlueIdaho]

12. Respectfully

You are conflating two issues. The plight of Palestinians and support for Kennedy. I watched the video and did not see one sign for Kennedy.

But yes, we must stop violence in the Middle East.

[lees1975]

11. Hard to believe that.

Where would that support even come from?

Not buying those numbers. If he's at 3% of the responses in the raw data, I'd be surprised.