Top Pollster Trashes ABC/WaPo for Publishing 'Laughable' Poll...

[Norbert]

A leading political pollster called out ABC News and the Washington Post for publishing their shocking poll Sunday which showed President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump by 10 points.

In a post to X, the platform previously known as Twitter, noted political scientist Larry Sabato — the publisher of the widely-read Sabato’s Crystal Ball — slammed ABC and the Post for putting out a survey which they referred to as an “outlier.”

“Ignore the Washington Post – ABC poll,” Sabato wrote. “It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable). My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.”...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/top-pollster-trashes-abc-wapo-for-publishing-laughable-poll-showing-trump-up-10-will-be-a-lingering-embarrassment-for-you/ar-AA1hbG2u?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=3d15c9f49414484882b09a23ce8cb135&ei=6#image=1

[Docreed2003]

1. It may be laughable but the intent is deadly serious:

Weaken Biden by portraying him as too old and the economy as too weak. It's frustrating because the more they spew that shit the more that message gets reinforced with some.

[Hugin]

3. Exactly.

The ultimate point of these horse apples is to feed the horse race.

[Recycle_Guru]

7. precisely--they are so obvious with their obviousness

[MyNameIsJonas]

15. The problem isn't just the media narrative.

Most people don't pay attention to the narrative.

They do pay attention to their pocketbooks and that's what is really dinging Biden. Gas prices remain pretty high and the cost of living is still much higher today than 2020.

It's frustrating because much of it is out of his control but as president, he's likely to get the blame no matter what.

The one thing I've seen a lot the last couple years on places like tiktok is just how hard it is to live. So many people complaining about high rent and the cost of food.

That's how people view the economy and it's hard to break that perception because it's personal - not just media-driven.

When you can't afford rent or to fuel up your car or that the average price of everything feels almost 20% higher than the three years ago, you're probably not going to think the economy is all that good.

Is it Biden's fault? No. We're still dealing with the impacts of COVID and the supply chain crisis in 2021 & 2022. But it's not atypical to blame the president in these types of situations.

As for Biden's age, I only think the perceived state of the economy amplifies people's concern over it. If the economy was great, gas prices reasonably low and the price of goods not so high, they'd probably be more forgiving.

But 2024 is absolutely going to be a moods election. If the American people are still sour on the economy a year from now, it'll be very close.

Right now, the mood of the country is not good. You can blame the media but that's only half the issue here.

[58Sunliner]

21. Another issue is the intentional gouging by SA.

Can not be overstated how much that effects the economy.

[LittleGirl]

30. Please put Corporate Greed as the top reason for high prices

Because they can. There’s no regulation on their greed. The rest just follows.

[plimsoll]

58. "Most people don't pay attention to the narrative," you say?

Sure they pay attention to their pocketbook, but when they look for someone to blame they return to the narrative. Given how human beings "think" they'll go with the narrative they hear most often, even if it's been discredited time and time again. Because in general we aren't particularly rational, and rely on mental short cuts and heuristics to reach decisions. So they may not pay attention to the narrative, but when they want an answer the easily remembered, most often repeated, or loudest screamed will come to mind unbidden.

[MyNameIsJonas]

60. If they're not listening to the narrative, they aren't hearing it being discredited.

I promise you most of America barely watched cable news or could even tell you about polls. They go by vibes and right now, the vibes suck. Everything is ridiculously expensive, from housing to food to gas. That's all people care about and they're not invested in the why but rather who it's happening under. They don't know unemployment is at a record low because they're not paying attention to any of that.

Until prices are lowered, especially gas, Biden is going to be extremely vulnerable. It does no one any good to ignore that reality. It also is difficult to convince voters it's not the president's fault for all this.

[calimary]

70. Good point. And a good point to keep in mind.

Most Americans aren’t tuned in this intensely - as are folks and interest groups like us. And the challenge ahead will be to REACH them - with OUR messaging and the reality we all see and live in (that they share, even if they don’t recognize it).

[calimary]

71. Oh crap - double post.

Sorry about that. Even so, still worth repeating.

[BidenRocks]

77. TFG lower gases how?

[MyNameIsJonas]

78. It doesn't matter if he can. He can say he will and people will remember gas prices when he was prez

Americans don't deal in nuance. They don't care that he has no plan to lower gas prices. They just remember what gas was before Biden became president and that's all that matters to them. Gas prices aren't out of control but they're still a dollar or so higher than they were in 2019 and that is hanging around Biden's neck.

[Justice matters.]

67. I understand the struggles, but if they think electing the rapist...

... will make inflation go away... they're up for a really BIG deception!

[MyNameIsJonas]

79. They don't think that far ahead.

Ultimately, I think Biden will prevail but just remember how close America was at handing back this country to the Republicans in 2012 after they ran the economy into the ground with their incompetence.

[SomedayKindaLove]

68. A lot of people vote their wallets

And Trump will promise to make everyone rich, he’s already doing it to the auto union. Think gas prices will jump before the election?

It was a pretty close election last time around. Democrats doing better in special election is very promising and noteworthy for sure, but it does not guarantee the top slot.

What if they’ve already found the 12,000 votes in Georgia for 2024? That’s how they usually do it in Georgia. You don’t steal an election after it’s over. You do it before the election even happens.

I saw the fascism that sexism brought this country. Really worrying that ageism brings it back.

How did Hitler get elected? Bad economy and spreading fear of others. It can happen.

There will need to be huge efforts to get out the vote, which should happen as I don’t think anyone has forgotten about abortion.

[MyNameIsJonas]

80. The best thing to happen to Biden right now is the Trumpism of the GOP.

If this was the 2012 GOP, he would be booted from office unfortunately because of the state of the economy. I know people don't want to hear it but the only reason 2024 is not setting up like 1992 is because the Republicans are so off their rocker that a good chunk of voters won't dare trust 'em politically.

Biden is extremely vulnerable because, as you say, voters vote with their wallet. But the Republicans are so awful that they can't even finish an easy lay-up. There's no reason 2022 shouldn't have gone to the Republicans overwhelmingly. Not with how many swing states had senate seats up for grabs. Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania - in any other election cycle with an even marginally saner GOP, those states probably break heavily for the Republicans.

[LymphocyteLover]

25. 100%

[wryter2000]

33. It's a total repeat of the hit job they did on Hillary

And they’re all doing it. Even MSNBC with their constant laments about Biden’s age and how awful inflation is.

[NCDem47]

38. Don't forget about refugees at the US/Mexico border!!

NBC Nightly News is downright obsessed with it.

[Docreed2003]

43. Exactly right

And they have ZERO shame. It's all about ratings

[McKim]

61. Excellent Reminder!

Your comment was an excellent reminder. We have seen this show before. Not pretty!

[brooklynite]

46. It must be hard to get good villains today...

Why kind of evil cabal produces a fake poll that promotes their "message" and then warns you it's an outlier?

[Docreed2003]

49. 🙄 Strong work putting words in my mouth

Where did I say they were an "evil cabal" or that this was a fake poll? Sure they warn that the poll is an outlier, most of us with reading comprehension and interest in the subject matter actually did read the full article contrary to your implications, but what I'm saying is that most people don't read beyond what the poll numbers show. The average American is hearing "Biden is too old" and "The economy is bad" and nothing else. That's the problem and whether intentional or unintentional it will have an effect when those statements are said repeatedly.

[brooklynite]

51. Not you personally; seems to be the general consensus of any unpleasant poll.

[Docreed2003]

52. That's fair...and true

[uponit7771]

56. +1, the poll was meant to amplify the stupidity

[2naSalit]

59. Yup...

These polls are meant to create opinion rather than record opinion.

[uponit7771]

74. THIS !!!! ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾

[c-rational]

65. +1 Agreed.

[sanatanadharma]

73. In other words, "push-polling"

The media pushes polling propaganda.

[Hugin]

2. For the last time...

Trump and his co-conspirators are known and have admitted to "buying polls". It's one of their go-tos and has been for decades.

[Charging Triceratops]

4. A new poll from Vanguarde-IMTU*

A new poll from Vanguarde-IMTU indictated 95 percent of Americans think the MSM is full of shit.


*IMTU ... I made this up. Like all pollsters.

[IA8IT]

5. Charging Triceratops? Welcome....I'll be expecting great posts from you.

[True Blue American]

23. LOL

[wryter2000]

34. Glad to have you here

[c-rational]

66. Welcome and well said.

[Silent Type]

6. Yeah, we should ignore all polls, especially ones that make us uncomfortable. That's the ticket.

[Recycle_Guru]

8. interesting take there, silent type

[Mister Ed]

10. We should question both the methodology and the motives of all pollsters.

That's the ticket.

[getagrip_already]

11. No, we should attack the pollsters...

There is no way this was a legitimately built poll.

Let's get real. If they actually reveal the internals, which I doubt, it will be heavily skewed to a an older gop base.

This was designed to get a result like this, just not so far in tfgs direction. It was supposed to be closer, but they screwed up by playing it safe.

[BannonsLiver]

12. I ignore them all because they aren't relevant anymore.

In much the same way my CD player is no longer relevant in my life.

[ProfessorGAC]

13. Agreed

Well, except for the CD player. I still use the one in my car.
I would remind folks that in September of 2019, TFG was ahead in every poll against the probable dem candidates.
The books had him minus 180 to be reelected.
Yet, here we are. He got beaten by 4.3% and 70 electoral votes.
It's way too soon for these polls to be meaningful or accurate. I consider them to be irrelevant, too.

[MyNameIsJonas]

16. In September, 2019, Trump frequently trailed in polls.

You can view all the polls here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_hypothetical_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

In September & October, 2019, Bernie led Trump in all but three polls. Warren led Trump in all but one poll.

Here's how he did vs Biden:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_United_States_presidential_election

From every hypothetical poll, starting in 2017 through to the election in 2020, hundreds of polls to pick from, Trump only led Biden in nine polls total. That's it.

Nine out of hundreds .

[ProfessorGAC]

17. I'm Not Interested In Digging Up The Data Right Now, But....

...I did the same review a couple months ago & found the exact opposite.
Also, you polls showing him trailing Sanders are not relevant as Bernie is still a senator, not the president.
So, you need to adjust conclusions based on polls showing someone who didn't end up in the GE at all.
Since your numbers show him losing (sort of) & mine the opposite, the value of polls this far out are still of minimal value.
I'm not going back to redo the research at this point. As I find the polls valueless, I'm not going to spend the time.

[MyNameIsJonas]

19. You don't need to so the research. I did it for you.

I included Bernie and Warren because you literally included them in your post when you said this:

I would remind folks that in September of 2019, TFG was ahead in every poll against the probable dem candidates.

Dem candidates.

And that's not even true lol

But I also linked to every poll of Trump vs Biden and showed that no, Trump did not lead in every poll from September, 2019. In fact, vs Biden he only led in one - Rasmussen.

It's okay to admit you misremembered something.

But your claim is wrong. Flat-out.

And just because you can't be bothered to click links, here I'll just post a photo of the polls from September, 2019 between Biden and Trump:



Biden is blue, Trump red.

Of polls from September, 2019, Biden led Trump in eight and Trump led Biden in one.

In fact, ABC News is on here! They had Biden beating Trump 55-40. FOX News also had Biden beating Trump by double-digits.

Polling generally always favored Biden in the 2020 cycle.

Look, you can say you don't believe polls but your initial argument was that Trump led Biden in EVERY poll from September, 2019 - not that you don't trust polls.

That's just not true.

[SomedayKindaLove]

72. Zogby

America’s Most Accurate Two Septembers Before Election Polls

Wonder what there latest polling shows?

[True Blue American]

24. Same here.

so do I. When I found out the new ones do not have a CD player I was ticked off.

Oh well, I only have 32,000 miles on mine and do not want a box SUV. SOME LOOK LIKE HEARSES! Especially the black ones.

[oldsoftie]

26. But he only got beaten by about 40,000 votes. thats too close.

[BannonsLiver]

47. Yes, that's true.

I believe the clarity will be there in the end for most voters, who probably want to hear about another presidential campaign like they want a hole in their head.

Btw I recently switched back to vinyl!

[Elessar Zappa]

14. You go ahead and keep losing sleep over it.

I won’t.

[Silent Type]

27. I'm not losing any sleep. Just posting what I believe. You do you.

[IA8IT]

9. Paper pissing on President between them and former guy that'd send a murder mob???

Makes no sense to me

[kimbutgar]

18. These so called news media likes the horse race and want to influence people to a false

Narrative. They miss the drama of the orange maggot and the President is too boring to get excited about because he is doing his job and helping working Americans. President Biden is not creating the drama the media so craves to report.

[58Sunliner]

20. K and R.

Link to tweet

[vercetti2021]

22. Okay that is absolutely ridiculous!

Trump 10 points ahead?! HAHAHA! ARE THEY EVEN TRYING?!

[JustAnotherGen]

28. This is why

People like me don't pay attention to them. Also - my primary isn't until June. I don't really pay attention until after South Carolina and Nevada. Those are Democratic Party members I can relate to.

[elleng]

29. Good

[JoseBalow]

31. Polls, by their nature, rely on statistics

"There are three kinds of falsehoods: Lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[PortTack]

32. A more reliable measure for Dems including the presidential race are stats regarding recent

Special elections where Dems over performed winning 24 of 30.

?si=XhXmmA848cNVW7Vg

[stuck in the middle]

42. There are polls and there are POLLS.

[WarGamer]

35. This poll sucks.

Any poll that refuses to confirm my personal biases is obviously inaccurate, fake and bullshit.

However, if I see a poll next week that makes me HAPPY, it'll be an accurate and well run poll by a reputable pollster.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

40. Yeah

We're all just craven fools to refuse to fall for blatant bullshit.

[kcr]

55. You've got it all figured out

Good for you

[Sugarcoated]

63. That used to be true

Poll rigging is really happening, and lots of it

[GP6971]

37. Welcome to DU!! n/t

[MorbidButterflyTat]

39. Feeds the

asshole's bottomless ego.

3 - 2 - 1 - to the orange anus posting on his fake twitter what a massive lead he has.

[stuck in the middle]

41. What percentage...

…wants to see President Biden impeached?

That seems a more relevant statistic right now, given how far off the election is.

I mean, if we are looking for something to freak out about.

[MyNameIsJonas]

44. The poll is likely an outlier but the numbers aren't good all around for Biden.

We can't dismiss polls. Doing so is a dangerous game.

Conversely, though, we shouldn't overreact.

Still, Biden is in a tough spot heading into 2024. He has low approval, Americans are extremely negative toward the economy and the current state of politics in America.

The good news is that Biden hasn't really started campaigning yet so we don't know what impact an aggressive campaign will have on his numbers. He's also likely to face Trump, who remains a big liability for the GOP.

Plus, the state of the country might be vastly better in 12 months, changing the narrative completely.

[Norbert]

50. Unfortunately we do know who the MSM will focus their attention

The orange malignancy will get 80% of their attention because they can't lay-off of stupid shiny objects.

[JI7]

45. The lazy shitty media reports on polls as if they are actual election results

the problem is not the polls in itself but how media reports on them.

And how they don't report on actual policy issues and how people are affected.

But we do have other forms of media and tech to reach people so we just need to get around their bs.

[brooklynite]

48. So a pollster you don't trust is criticizing a poll you don't trust.....

Complicated.

[Lonestarblue]

53. Jeff Bezos, the billionaire who pays no federal income taxes, has been a bad influence on the

Washington Post. They just keep moving further to the right. This is not the same Post as when it was owned by the Grahams.

[texasfiddler]

54. I believe this poll showed the youth supporting tRump by 20%.

I'll stick with analyzing actual voting data. The past 4 elections show this is off by about 40-50%.

[flying_wahini]

57. Kinda like the 'Red Wave' during the last Pres election that Faux kept taking about in '20.

[Rebl2]

62. Exactly

[obamanut2012]

64. Sabato has a good tarck record

I trust him. UVA throws money at him to keep him around for a reason, no matter how annoying he is. And he is! A friend was one fo his GAs.

[Roc2020]

69. Ignore the polls.

Seriously. It is just clickbate ad for the MSM to scare Democrats about Biden yada yada. Anyone really think Democrats can be anymore motivated to vote against Trump or whoever the GOP nominee is?? ignore any presidential polls. They are Irrelevant.

[Blue Owl]

75. K&R for exposure

[Aaeia]

76. Obvious

Every time I see that kind of "reporting/journalism" from any of the top broadcasters, is the time that I turn the channel/shut off the tv, because you just know that they're just going for sensationalism rather than realism. WaPo must be having some kind of membership drive going on, which would be the only reason they'd report a poll where they contacted 1008 people to get their numbers.
I was disgusted that msnbc even repeated that nonsense.