Working Class & Hispanic Voters Are Losing Interest in the Party of Abortion, Gun Control & Jan 6th

[progressoid]

Working Class and Hispanic Voters Are Losing Interest in the Party of Abortion, Gun Control and the January 6th Hearings

White College-Educated Voters, On the Other Hand, Are On Board
Ruy Teixeira
Jul 14

Democrats are betting on a small set of issues to mitigate their losses this November. Inflation may have just hit a 40 year high (9.1 percent) with concomitant recession risk but Democrats believe that campaigning against the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, arguing for more gun control in the wake of recent mass shootings and highlighting Trump’s anti-democratic malfeasance through the January 6th hearings can turn the tide in their favor.

It is true that recently the polls have tightened a bit in the Democrats’ favor (though some of this could be the eagerness of motivated Democrats to be polled). And there is general agreement that Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate are much better than their chances of holding the House.

Recent data indicate that success for the abortion-gun control-January 6th strategy, to the extent it is working (and might work in the future) is attributable to those voters for whom these issues loom large and are less likely to be influenced by current economic problems. Such voters are disproportionately likely to be college-educated whites and it is here that Democrats have been demonstrating unusual strength.

...

More broadly, the lack of Democratic support among working class (noncollege) voters is striking. Democrats lose among all working class voters by 11 points, but carry the college-educated by 23 points. This is less a class gap than a yawning chasm.

The crosstabs provided by Echelon allow for a comparison of strong progressives’ basic political views with those of Hispanic and working class voters. Here are some examples:

1. America is not the greatest country in the world vs. America is the greatest country in the world. By 66 percent to 28 percent, strong progressives say America is not the greatest country in the world. By 70-23, Hispanics say the reverse and working class voters as a whole concur by 69-23.

2. Racism is built into our society, including into its policies and institutions vs. Racism comes from individuals who hold racist views, not from our society and institutions. Strong progressives are very, very sure of America’s systemic racism, endorsing the first statement by an amazing 94-6 margin. But Hispanics disagree, endorsing the second statement that racism comes from individuals by 58-36, as do working class voters by 57-33.

3. The government should deal with illegal immigration by making it easier to immigrate to the US legally vs. The government should deal with illegal immigration by increasing border security and enforcement. Strong progressives have no doubts on this one, favoring easier immigration by 97-2. Hispanics, however, are split down the middle with 44 percent favoring increased border security and enforcement and 47 percent opting for easier immigration. Working class voters go farther, endorsing more border security and enforcement by 58-32.

4....

More...https://theliberalpatriot.substack.com/p/working-class-and-hispanic-voters

[CrispyQ]

1. Because the party of big money will do a better job representing the working class.

Maybe the GOP isn't known as the party of big money anymore. They were when I was young, but we've dropped the ball so badly on messaging, maybe that's a dated phrase that doesn't pack the punch it used to.

[progressoid]

3. Messaging.

Yep. We need to make some changes in our messaging game ASAP. The right has been winning that game for a long time.

Speaking of the party of big money and messaging. The RW media is all over Pelosi right now over stock trades. They will successfully convince their viewers that the Democratic party doesn't care about "real 'muricans" and their problems. They will hammer home the coastal liberal elites trope. And if we don't have a descent response, it will stick.

[Sympthsical]

2. No one issue is going to be a magic bullet for November

And I dearly wish people would take that idea to heart.

[progressoid]

17. I fear too many expect a magic bullet from the Jan 6th hearings.

The best outcome I can foresee is a slight tarnishing of the GOP image. Maybe that will depress the support they get in November a little. That would be nice but beyond that, I ain't holdin' my breath.

I fear that we are (again) going to be the party of "well, we aren't as bad at them."

[Sympthsical]

24. I'm worried about July 28th

That's when the initial GDP numbers come out. We've already contracted 1.6% in the first quarter. If we show contraction - and we very well could with gas prices being what they were throughout - that's officially a recession.

If we look like we're gazing deep into a political navel while inflation is eating wages, we're going to be in a lot more trouble than we think. It'll be "Iceberg, right ahead!" and who knows if our messaging ship can turn all that quickly.

[Aristus]

4. It's Hispanic conservatives that make me facepalm.

"Yes, I'm going to vote for the party that hates me and everyone who looks and talks like me because we agree on exactly one issue."

[SickOfTheOnePct]

5. Pardon me if this seems rude

because I most certainly don't mean for it to, but the framing you use is part of the problem this survey talks about.

It isn't just the abortion issue or immigration that working class Hispanic & Latino voters are concerned about. They're concerned about the very same things that other people in the working class - white, black, Native American, etc. - are concerned about.

Will I be able to pay for gas and food this week?
How am I going to pay for school supplies and back to school clothes?
Will the school supplies and back to school clothes even be available given supply chain issues?

If we try to appeal to these voters based on what we (Democratic party members & leadership) think they should be concerned about instead of what they're really concerned about, it will not bode well for us moving forward.

In other words, let's stop talking to them as if what's important to them is somehow different than what's important to other people in their socio-economic class that don't look like them.

[ripcord]

6. +1000

We had people here saying that with all this stuff going on people should stop complaining about high gas prices. Many of these people don't live on much of a margin so every extra expense hurts, dismissing their concerns is just stupid.

[triron]

7. You can't cure stupid.

[iemanja]

10. It's stupid to care about if you can survive?

That's a winning campaign message.

[Raine]

16. Calling them stupid certainly doesn't help. nt

[Aristus]

8. No, it's not rude. It's a perfectly valid observation.

Unfortunately, I don't know how to tell them that the Republicans have no more interest in solving their problems than they are of solving the problems of any of these other demographics. If you're not rich, then from the GOP, you get poor pay, poor food, poor lodging, poor medical care, lots and lots of guns, and generations of festering resentments.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

9. We don't tell them what

the Republicans won’t do, we tell them what we will do.

[shrike3]

19. Republicans know how to appeal to them on emotional issues, like guns.

So they will forgive the fact that Republicans won't do much for them either.

I also hear, "both parties are the same." Such people are easier to appeal to on emotional issues. Or, they won't vote at all.

[robodruid1]

11. + 1 Chicken

in every pot.

[Raine]

15. Exactly, you're totally on point! nt

[progressoid]

13. It's kind of shocking how many supported the organge anus.

If we don't face the it, I suspect we will continue to see a shift toward the GOP from the Latino community.

To explain Trump’s appeal, Aguilar also pointed to his Administration’s support for religious liberty and the right to life. From early on in his Presidency, Trump made inroads with evangelical leaders, and during his four years in office he talked about the right to life, school choice, and prayer in schools. At a church in Miami, Trump said, “America was not built by religion-hating socialists” but, rather, “by churchgoing, God-worshiping, freedom-loving patriots.”

...

It’s not clear how or whether Democrats will combat the momentum felt by Latino Republicans. For some of them, acknowledging Trump’s greater share of the Latino vote amounts to blaming Latinos for the close election, as though they failed to fulfill a promise. Acknowledging the shift could also have consequences for how Democrats think about their coalition, what kind of investments they should make in Latino communities going forward, and what their platform should be on immigration, education, health care, and many other issues.

In the White House, Joe Biden will have the opportunity to show Latinos that they’re important to the Democratic coalition. First, though, Democrats will have to acknowledge that a shift did, in fact, take place. Carlos Odio, of the progressive Latino firm Equis Research, told me that it makes Latino Democrats “uncomfortable” to consider the move by some Latinos toward Trump, because “if you view Donald Trump as being the raging racist that he is, the guy who put Stephen Miller in charge of our immigration system, then people say, ‘Well, shouldn’t it be Latinos who fight back, who lead the charge?’ ” Odio said that, in upcoming elections, he hopes Latinos will get “the white working-class treatment.” He added, “I don’t need a Latino ‘Hillbilly Elegy’—we can pass on that part. But I think the rest of it would be great to see.”

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-deep-origins-of-latino-support-for-trump

[shrike3]

20. Where I live, a surprising number of Latinos have no sympathy for immigrants.

One of the most rabid Trumpers I know is Latino. Trump was going to "build my wall." He's been handing out Trump 2024 buttons so I guess he thinks there's still hope.

Other Latinos are business owners and are more into the less taxes, fewer regulations mindset. Very little empathy for people who might have been their parents a generation ago. "I got mine."

Also, very little empathy for gays, and trans.

[Elessar Zappa]

14. We need to focus more on inflation.

[shrike3]

18. This doesn't surprise me.

I live in a heavily unionized area. While the area as a whole is blue, most union guys -- and they are guys -- are anti-immigrant, anti-woke (this is a big deal to them), pro gun, not too upset over Roe v. Wade, at times openly racist, and are under the impression that the country always does better and is safer under Republicans.

btw, I have heard these same union guys say that if one doesn't like abortion being illegal in one's state, one should simply move elsewhere.

[progressoid]

21. That too is a mystery

I have a cousin who is a life long union member. He's got a couple bumper sticker declaring his proud support of unions. But then he only votes for Republicans.

What the actual fuck.

[shrike3]

22. I can't speak for your cousin, obviously.

But where I live, part of it is a machismo thing. The Democratic party is a party of women, and trans and gays. A lot of homophobia and transphobia among the union guys I know.

Plus, good old fashioned racism.

[progressoid]

23. Oh yeah.

He's def a racist. Likes to pretend the GOP isn't because, ya know, Lincoln freed the slaves.

[shrike3]

27. I wish I had a dollar for every time I heard that one.

During the BLM protests I was shocked, and disappointed, by the reactions of these union men with whom I was acquainted.

[Tickle]

25. I must have been sleeping

I haven't heard Hispanics were repubs and needed to come to our side

[Meowmee]

26. They are fascists

As is anyone who supported and voted for fascism. You can’t change most of them.