General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsUpdate on the Gravis Marketing Fraud investigation; Statistician offers proof of fraud in the polls.
Last edited Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:37 AM - Edit history (1)
There is a small working group that includes some very very talented researchers who have gone way beyond my modest little initial postings.
A short teaser. There is more to come.
We now have a small mountain of hard cold facts that will show a long sustained career of shadowy marketing and fraudulent activity by Kaplan and his other known associates.
There will be no doubt in the end that Kaplan was not a pollster and had some financial interest in misrepresenting himself and the activities of Gravis Marketing.
Let me make this absolutely clear. No doubt. None.
The information is so categorical, and so voluminous that it will raise substantial questions as to how the polling community could be so completely duped.
We have reason to believe that even the claim to attend DeVry, not a particularly bold claim, may not be true.
In fact the only fact that Kaplan has put out that we cannot refute is this one
One DUer visited Gravis yesterday
No one was there but made the following report
The office is about 10x10.. very small with 4 small desks inside.
Our earlier post has opened up a new front on Gravis Marketing as a fraud.
A statistician has examined his numbers and found them to be statistically impossible
dawolf at logarchism.com
http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud/
has published a statistical exam of Gravis Marketing and concluded that the numbers published are not statistically possible given the sample size. You need to follow his careful point by point argument to get the full weight but this chart gives you the idea:
That article has become the foundation for a thread at Intrade:
https://www.intrade.com/v4/forum/ (there is no direct link to the thread, you have to go to the political discussion forum)
thanks to EmeraldCityGrl for the heads up on that
FSogol
(45,526 posts)grantcart
(53,061 posts)oldhippydude
(2,514 posts)fantastic service to the group my friend
MuhkRahker
(104 posts)Still waiting for the first break of this scandal in "Google news", I now have Gravis and Paul Kaplan marked for alerts.
renate
(13,776 posts)myrna minx
(22,772 posts)porphyrian
(18,530 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)And as is the normal MO, the RW'ers hurry and claim the Left is doing exactly what they have been doing for some time. The right has been manipulating the polls in the hopes of gaining electoral advantage by disheartening the opposition while trying to enthuse their base.
The Right has been doing this with their patently false outrage over Leftie voter fraud.
The Right has done this with voter registration fraud.
The Right has done this with calls that Obama has not worked across the ailse
The Right has done this with the "concern" over LW filibusters.
The Right has done this with debate lies.
The Right has done this with proclaiming the Left has increased spending
The Right has done this with claiming the Leftie have not created jobs
The Right has done this with claiming the Left is not an advocate of small business.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)Limbaugh has been on air, complaning that the Left is manipulating the Polls to discourage the RW'ers from getting out the vote.
Baitball Blogger
(46,757 posts)Sheepshank
(12,504 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)You may have to scroll around a bit from there.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)I guess I really don't need to read it ... The verdict is already in.
BumRushDaShow
(129,459 posts)And thanks for your exhaustive work!
gademocrat7
(10,669 posts)Jazzgirl
(3,744 posts)Glad you all are keeping on top of this. One day we'll see it splashed across HuffPost and MSNBC and CNN and.....oh....wait....
yellerpup
(12,254 posts)You are amazing, truly!
matt819
(10,749 posts)It is pathetic that so many in the media, including Silver, have been duped in this way. I have little doubt that the response, if there even is a response, from Silver, et al, is that the "results" from Gravis had no material effect on his/their analyses. This is bad enough.
A larger problem is the question of how many of these bogus operations are feeding lies into "the system." I would find it hard to believe that Gravis is the sole "bad apple," so, in the end, there's really no telling whether the meta poll analyses we are seeing have any basis in reality.
And then there's the question of whether the poll results from established operations are valid, given that some polls traditionally, and consistently, lean right or left.
And I still have the problem that despite the neck and neck race the media is portraying, Silver and others put the "probability" of an Obama win at 80+%.
Maeve
(42,288 posts)Back in the day when "journalism" was actually taught and respected....(I quit because I did not want to compete with my fiancee in the same field. Little did I know the field would disappear to be replaced with 'media reporters')
What you have done is the sort investigation real journalists DO. Assemble the facts, dig into the truth, expose the lies. I wish my words could express the warmth in my heart that your work has engendered. This is what the free press was supposed to do. I wish it still did.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)renate
(13,776 posts)And funny too! "By the age of 14, I had read several books"...
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)He's the one weighting Gravis's polls so fondly, so isn't he the one who should see this expose?
MuhkRahker
(104 posts)But I'm not stopping at Nate. This story is either going to be HUGE and absolutely blow up or be totally ignored. I'm contacting my friend who works with The Young Turks next, they'll run with this one. I will be sending this to a bunch of bloggers I like too, one of them has questioned GravMark''s results a few times in the recent past...
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)Nice to have you aboard.
beac
(9,992 posts)Hope Nate Silver is being copied on all this.
patrice
(47,992 posts)speedoo
(11,229 posts)And thanks again grantcart and your group.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Which leads me to an obvious question: Are they the only one? Doesn't stand to reason Rove & co would put all their eggs in one basket. Perhaps Gravis is merely a smokescreen. Their operation is so amateurish, perhaps Rove & co KNEW they'd be outed, thus diverting attention from bigger and more professional fish?
cliffordu
(30,994 posts)Shore do hope someone in the MSM runs with all of this.....
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)one? And if Nate Silver wants to stay relevant, he needs to comment on this and stop using these polls from now on.
I would not be surprised if the same people who funded Breitbart aned O'Keefe et al, funded this phony operation. They always seem to pick people like this, O'Keefe eg, who are willing to lie and have shady histories.
Denzil_DC
(7,257 posts)Keep it coming!
sabrina 1
(62,325 posts)NorCen_CT
(176 posts)How is Doug Kaplan paying for all of this? I remember reading a quote where he stated that he was basically paying for this out of his own pocket (Office space, telecom equipment & service, employees....that is unless he really is just getting the numbers given to him, and he creates a polling release, along with the subsequent data off of that)? I can think of absolutely NO way that he can be paying for all of this, unless he is discretely being given some PAC money, or is an individual's/groups puppet.
I've done a little (OK, a more than a little) digging into this, and it seems that Doug not only has no other job, but actually owes (liens/garnishments) the IRS, as well as a few banks/mortgage lenders (foreclosure) to the tune of $350,000 (or more. $350k is all I've discovered so far, can post proof/links if need be).
Grantcart, let me know if you would like me to forward you (not enough posts/reply's to use DU mail ) the financial information/documents I have (a few criminal dockets as well). I prefer to have you post them up, as you've done such a great job with Gravis already, and I'd prefer to a) not bury the financial part of this in a comment, and b) better to keep this in as few posts as possible, so probably better off in your next follow-up, as opposed to me starting a new thread.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)MuhkRahker
(104 posts)Kick...