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Jared Bernstein on Ohio's uemployment trend: Electoral Calculus
Electoral Calculus
<...>
The first derivative is the rate of change in the level. Is unemployment going up or down?
And the second derivative tells you whether the first is accelerating or decelerating. Is job growth (a first derivative) faster this month than last? That’s a second derivative question...if the trend is your friend, that’s a good friend to have (putting aside issues about what politicians actually have to do with job growth).
<...>
I was also thinking about this today in the context of a post by Greg Sargent, posted here. By “momentum,” I’m talking about the first derivative. And here’s the relevant picture re unemployment in Ohio vs. the nation, where you see both the level and the momentum story combined.
None of this should be taken to mean I think we’re out of the economic woods. There are still far too many foreclosures in the pipeline and neither GDP nor jobs are growing fast enough—both are growing; neither is accelerating. But until one of the experts tells me otherwise, and while I’m sure levels matter a lot, I’m going to keep thinking that when it comes to people forming opinions re the indicators, it’s the first derivative that matters most.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN US AND OHIO
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/electoral-calculus/
<...>
The first derivative is the rate of change in the level. Is unemployment going up or down?
And the second derivative tells you whether the first is accelerating or decelerating. Is job growth (a first derivative) faster this month than last? That’s a second derivative question...if the trend is your friend, that’s a good friend to have (putting aside issues about what politicians actually have to do with job growth).
<...>
I was also thinking about this today in the context of a post by Greg Sargent, posted here. By “momentum,” I’m talking about the first derivative. And here’s the relevant picture re unemployment in Ohio vs. the nation, where you see both the level and the momentum story combined.
None of this should be taken to mean I think we’re out of the economic woods. There are still far too many foreclosures in the pipeline and neither GDP nor jobs are growing fast enough—both are growing; neither is accelerating. But until one of the experts tells me otherwise, and while I’m sure levels matter a lot, I’m going to keep thinking that when it comes to people forming opinions re the indicators, it’s the first derivative that matters most.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN US AND OHIO
http://jaredbernsteinblog.com/electoral-calculus/
It's the auto bailout, stupid!
Fired Up For President Obama At Kent State Rally
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021424376
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