This is Romney's agenda for the next 6 weeks
Right now if the elections were held today and the polls were somewhat reliable Obama would win 333 to 205. Obama would get all the same states from last election (including one from Nebraska) except for Indiana and North Carolina. That means Romney has to find 66 electoral votes(EV) or hope they uncover footable of Obama sacrifice a small child to a foreign deity. All the skeletons in Obama's closest have long been spilled and Obama is winning the message on the Economy but only barely. Everyday Romney finds a new way to shoot himself in the foot and his wife comes across as a spoiled rotten princess who wants to be Marie Antoinette.
The tough thing about 66 votes is that there aren't that many huge electoral areas left to win over. Of the six largest states out there only one of them (Florida-29) is competitive. Texas-38 is pretty much a win for Romney but doesn't stand a chance in states like CA(55), NY (29), PA(20) and IL (20). That means on election night before the results are turned in you can safely start the count at 124 Obama (CA,NY,PA,IL) and 38 Romney (TX).
Republican stronghold has always been the really big states with sparse populations that you find in the midwest and south. Probably is the next biggest state Romney is guarenteed to win is Georgia and that's 16EV. After Georgia there are a few with 11 such as Tennessee, Indiana and Arizona (although he looks weak in Arizona) and the rest we're getting down to single digits.
So what's left for Romney to find 66 electoral votes. Well the big one is Florida. Obama managed to win it in 2008 but we all know the history of voter shenighans in Florida and what Gov Rick Scott is doing makes Katherine Harris of the 2000 election fame look like an amateur. But the Romney-Ryan team has not been good for Seniors who are a part of the 47% that Romney dismissed and collect the medicare that Ryan wants to disband for vouchers. Obama has been polling slightly ahead but if Romney can keep close Rick Scott has the tools to steal the election. Three other states that he might stand a chance are Virginia, Iowa and Colorado which would give him another 30 electoral votes. But 2 he's been trailing in all 3 of those states these past weeks and even with those 3 plus Colorado he'd only be at 59EV - still 7 short of what he needs. Sure he might get that vote from Nebraska and NEw Hampshire tends to buck the trend of the blue Northeast but that would put him at a tie with Obama. Maybe New Mexico is the final key for his win but Obama has been polling well there too.
So ultimately the election is going to come down to these states - Virginia, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico. I think Romney is going to pull out of any of the Great Lake states because of his comments on the Auto Bailout. And remember there are states where we're actually still competive like Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Montana. Obama wins any one of those states Romney is pretty much fucked.
So that's my current analysis!
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