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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCurious.....what were Hillary's poll numbers at this time in 2016?????
similar to Joes? or way up, or way behind......I dont remember. I know I didnt feel like tRump was going to win, I went to bed knowing Hillary was going to win.
Yavin4
(35,433 posts)Turnout does. The turnout was low, in some places as low as 1996.
Demsrule86
(68,542 posts)Demsrule86
(68,542 posts)before
https://upload.democraticunderground.com/100214064016
Here is a Reuters poll around this time in 16
"The Sept. 16-22 opinion poll showed that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 37 percent supported Trump. Clinton has mostly led Trump in the poll during the 2016 campaign, though her advantage has narrowed since the end of the Democratic and Republican national conventions in July."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN11T2F4
Biden's numbers are much better. And no Comey in the wings.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,569 posts)Plus, the 2016 polls were seriously flawed, in that they over sampled college educated voters. That has been corrected this year.
a kennedy
(29,644 posts)DonaldsRump
(7,715 posts)Far fewer undecideds now, and Joe has been very stable.
But the point remains, we do have GOTV and get the vote in.
USALiberal
(10,877 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)not only nationally but in battle ground states
still_one
(92,122 posts)are NOT comparable for numerous reasons
A few of the reasons are the following:
Third party voting will NOT be a factor as in was in 2016
There is no Comey coming out 11 days before the election
Over 200,000 people have died because of trump
All indications in early voting are the turnout will be significant
The passing of RBG will be a huge motivating factor for women, minorities, and women to vote
Trump has approval has consistently polled below 50%, around 42 - 45%. Biden at or above 50%
a kennedy
(29,644 posts)blue crushing, I mean so huge that there is NO doubt the orange piece of shit lost.
still_one
(92,122 posts)Johnny2X2X
(19,034 posts)3rd party candidates were a huge factor on the results and were also why Clinton's lead was not real.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
On September 26th 2016 (You have to use the 26th because the election in 2016 was 5 days later than this year) Hillary was up 1.4 points, but Gary Johnson was still polling above 7 points when he would only get 3 on election day, those 4 points went to Trump almost exclusively. So Trump was very concretely leading at this time in 2016, perhaps by as much as 2 points.